2017 - A Google - Apple World?

As another Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2017) ended during the first week in January 2017, two different views of the fast approaching “autonomous car” infrastructure came to light. Based on these two views, I believe we as a global society are at a crossroads with respect to this new and exciting technology. I label this crossroads the Google – Apple inflection point. Hence, the title of this blog is “A Google – Apple World?”.

An article about emerging technology presented at CES 2017 illustrates this inflection point. The article is entitled “Microsoft’s Connected Vehicle Platform is a more far-reaching approach than either Apple’s or Google’s” by Kareem Anderson presented On_MSFT.com.

As an introduction to why we may be at an inflection point, I need to give a little background about the Consumer Electronics Show. This show is the largest consumer electronics show in the world. It has been held in January of each year since 2005. The following information is posted on the CES Tech website:

“CES 2016 was a record-breaking year. A total attendance of 177,393 gathered from across the globe to experience technology innovation spanning 2.47 million net square feet of exhibit space.
That's why CES is the world's gathering place for all who thrive on the business of consumer technology. No other event gives your company this depth of exposure and reach, because there's no other event experience like CES.”

Several people have noted that CES 2017 had attendance of about 150,000 but I could not verify the figures at the time of this blog. Per Wikipedia, the first CES was held in 1967.

The first CES was held in June 1967 in New York City. It was a spinoff from the Chicago Music Show, which until then had served as the main event for exhibiting consumer electronics. The event had 17,500 attendees and over 100 exhibitors; the kickoff speaker was Motorola chairman Bob Galvin.^[2] From 1978 to 1994, CES was held twice each year: once in January in Las Vegas known as Winter Consumer Electronics Show (WCES) and once in June in Chicago, known as Summer Consumer Electronics Show (SCES).”

CES started and is known as a show where “start-ups” and smaller companies can present their new ideas to the public. It presents a less expensive forum where these companies and innovators can network directly with manufacturers, dealers, distributors and the public before going into full production with their products. It gives these “start-ups” an idea of what the “market” may be for their idea prior to the large investment of production, distribution and full scale marketing.

“The International CES (Consumer Electronics Show^®) is the world's gathering place for all who thrive on the business of consumer technologies.
It's where business gets done: on the show floor, in and around our conference program, in impromptu connections and in planned meetings and special events.”

However, many of the largest technology innovators in the world also showcase their ideas, including Samsung, Sony, Google, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft. In addition, the major computer manufacturers such as Dell, HP, Samsung and Apple are also vying for media attention. For example, in the last few years, it has become a show which major automobile manufacturers have showcased new technology and concepts. Exhibitors include Toyota, Ford, BMW, Renault, Nissan, Honda and others. These large exhibitors often eclipse the smaller companies for both media coverage and interest. These “mega” corporations receive very valuable feedback regarding their new ideas and innovations just as the smaller start-up do.

Now that you understand a bit about the show, its premise and its venue, I will get back to my initial question – “A Google – Apple World?”. What does this mean? Are we at an “inflection” point and if so, what is it?

One of the newest technologies on the horizon is the “self-driving automobile.” This concept has been around (in science-fiction) for my lifetime and beyond. One representative example, in my lifetime, was the cartoon series entitled “the Jetsons.” My Dad and I used to watch it weekly when it was introduced on “prime time” television. He loved the show, as did I. The society of the Jetsons had robots and flying, “self-driving” cars.

The same idea was presented in one on my favorite movie trilogies, Back to the Future. The DeLorean time-machine was classic science-fiction in a real world setting.

Thirty to fifty years later, technology is finally catching up with the concepts presented in the Jetsons and Back to the Future. While we may wait a few years for flying cars, we do have technology which is beginning to make “self-driving” or “autonomous cars” a reality. Several traditional automobile manufacturers, such as Ford, Toyota and General Motors, are testing these cars today. Almost all auto manufacturers at least have this technology on the drawing board or in the planning stages.

However, the mega “technology” companies, such as Google, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft, are also in this “self-driving” automobile race as well. These self-driving cars are as dependent on technology equipment, wiring, computer chips and software programming as they are on machine parts, gears and engine blocks. To give an example, note the following.

Cars are being included in the IoT (internet of things), just like refrigerators, dishwashers and industrial system controllers. According to a November 2016 Machine Design magazine article entitled “Connected Cars Spell Opportunity for Manufacturing Distribution” by Victoria Fraza Kickham, this trend is well underway. Imaging cameras, LIDAR, radar and other sensing technology is ramping up in the automotive industry.

“Semiconductor sales for connected cars will see the most dramatic growth this year. For 2016, IC Insights says revenues of IoT semiconductors used in connected-cities applications are expected to rise 15% to about $11.4 billion while the connected vehicle category is projected to climb 66% to $787 million this year.”

However, this revolution goes far beyond merely selling chips, wiring, sensors or creating programs. It even eclipses selling computer operating systems such as has been Microsoft’s model since its inception. Per a Design Engineering Magazine December 2015 article entitled, “Intelligence and the Connected Car” by Peter Varhol:

“204% - amount that revenue from all digital audio content (entertainment, safety, vehicle management, etc.) is expected to grow between 2016 and 2021.” (source: PwC’s Connected Car Study, 2015

Clearly, the major technology companies want their part of this digital computer content market. But, it does not end there. The four major technology companies (Google, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft) are in competition to “own” the cloud based market. A major share in “the cloud” will probably be a “live or die” scenario for these companies over the next ten to twenty years. This market is known as “big data,” and it has everything to do with the collection, storage, management, distribution and manipulation of huge quantities of information from around the globe.

Not uncharacteristically, these four technology companies are taking a different approach to this future. In his January 2017 article entitled “Microsoft’s Connected Vehicle Platform is a more far-reaching approach than either Apple’s or Google’s,” Mr. Anderson notes the basic difference.

“While infotainment units are a measured quantity in a vehicle, and Apple and Google are looking to leverage their strong mobile presence in that specific area, it’s becoming clear that Microsoft, along with Amazon, are looking to take a road less traveled. Rather than putting a drivers focus on the in-dash unit of their car and forcing auto makers to pick and choose which of their inventory supports these mobile operating systems, Amazon and Microsoft are looking to leverage their impressive cloud services across hardware.”

Put simply, Apple and Google are looking to “extend our mobile experience from phones and simple tablets to automobiles. This is noted by Mr. Anderson as follows.

“While not directly tied to CES, Ford also announced several of its “smart cars” in-dash infotainment units will also support Android Auto as well as Apple’s CarPlay platforms. Nevertheless, both Apple and Google are looking to extend a consumers mobile experience, either through aftermarket additions or built-in hardware, offering another touch-screen-centric app focused interaction in the car.”

“In this future, autonomous cars become moving entertainment centers, fully equipped with the latest apps and are an extension of a user’s preferred smartphone experience.”

Microsoft and Amazon are leveraging their cloud based prowess.

“On the other side of the battlefield we are now seeing cloud computing giants such as Amazon and Microsoft take an indirect approach to the connect car.”

Simply stated, I believe Apple and Google have a short term, “cash in on today” philosophy, while Microsoft and Amazon have a “build a slower but more substantial longer term” infrastructure base. In my opinion, we need the longer-term infrastructure base to create a stable new “self-driving” transportation infrastructure.

As someone who writes about water and energy infrastructure issues in my blog, I have seen the same approach over the last 20 years in those critical infrastructure areas as well. Combating this “short term, cash in on today cheap fix” mentality is the reason I wrote my three books involving water, Understanding Water Rights and Conflicts, Second Edition, Understanding Water and Terrorism and Water, Our Most Precious Resource. Simply stated, I set out to enhance public education, so that in a democracy, the majority of people needing water and electrical services could make rational, reasonable decisions.

It is clear, the “self-driving,” autonomous automobile industry will probably become almost as critical an infrastructure as the water supply system and the electrical grid. This is why I believe what we do now may well be an “inflection” point for the industry going forward. Unfortunately, we tend to take a short-term view (“how can I make the most money in the shortest period of time approach”) to those infrastructures which impact us the most, regardless of consequence.

If Google – Apple win out in this battle, then “fast and cheap” may well win out over “longer term, well thought out” solutions. It is obvious that Google – Apple are going for very short term cash rather than long term stability. Clearly, this is the Google – Apple inflection point which we have reached between strategies in the rapidly expanding automotive “self-driving” technology infrastructure.

The automotive industry of the 20^th century obviously has advanced far past what I knew and grew up with. The “Ford assembly line” days are long gone. My son, as a mechanic, is more a computer technician than an old-style mechanic. Self-driving and autonomous cars are going to be extensions of our homes and business environments. But the question is, which direction will we take?

If things progress as I have seen in the water and energy infrastructures, we will follow the Google-Apple path. This is reason I believe we are becoming a Google – Apple world.

Sincerely,
H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Email: tmcco@msn.com
Twitter: http://twitter.com/hcourtyoung
Blog: http://hcourtyoung.blogspot.com

Windows 10 and Emerging Technology

 

As the excitement of our political conventions wind down, I turn my attention to an issue that is far more relevant to our daily lives and certainly more entertaining to me. Microsoft is rolling out its new Windows 10 Redstone Edition on August 2, 2016. It brings new capabilities and possibilities to computing and the internet. Along with the new software, new hardware is making an appearance. We are on the cusp of a variety of exciting new emerging technologies in both hardware and software.

We can get a glimpse of this technology by using the new Windows Hello functionality in Windows 10. This allows us to log in to our computers, phones and tablets with a finger print or facial recognition. Microsoft notes the following about this new technology.

“Windows Hello is a more personal way to sign in to your Windows 10 devices with just a look or a touch. You’ll get enterprise-grade security without having to type in a password.” -- Source: https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/help/17215/windows-10-what-is-hello

I have been using this technology since the July 29, 2015 release of the first Windows 10, and find it works very well. As a member of the “Windows Insider” program, I reviewed the evolving technology as for the last year or more. Microsoft continued development and the result is this August 2, 2016 release to manufacturing (RTM) software, known as Windows 10 – Redstone Edition.

The idea of signing into a computer without using the “time-honored” password is fascinating to me, especially as I get older. Microsoft noted that it wants to have this technology apply across platforms (Android, Apple and Windows) and across websites. If Microsoft has their way, you can use the same technology to sign into all the other websites you normally use a password login for (your bank, Amazon, Google, etc.), as you do your computer. Think of never having to remember a password again. However, this is just the tip of the iceberg with respect to technology.

Go back in time with me. Using bio-metrics such as facial recognition, voice recognition, iris recognition and finger print recognition has been the stuff of science fiction over my lifetime and through out the 20^th century. Conversing with a computer has been a goal for a long time. Examples of this technology have been immortalized on the movie and television screen.

“Since the 1950s, when artificial intelligence (AI) first got serious funding, media and industry hype has fueled the belief that someday there will be an entity such as Hal, the sentient computer in the classic sci-fi movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, or, more recently, the array of artificial in the computers and “Humanich” androids in the current TV show Extant.” – Speech Technology, Speech Technology in the IoT Era, Nancy Jamison, Winter 2015

Speech technology, now known as conversational technology or conversational computing, can also be seen in one of the most viewed movie and television series of all time – Star Trek, which has long been a favorite of mine. I have a hard time forgetting the scene in Star Trek VI – The Voyage Home, when Scotty {the Engineer] tries to use a computer at an industrial facility. The Starship Enterprise and crew have gone back in time to present day Earth. The Star Trek engineer tries to talk to an IBM computer, using the mouse, in a parody of the way he normally does on the ship, clearly, to no avail.

It is hard to conceive of the Internet of Things (IoT) and a connected world without the use of conversational technology. The scope of this technology is noted by Ms. Jamison:

“The Internet of Things (IoT), made up of everything from wearables to connected health and the connected home, has led hundreds to companies to work on and deliver products that automate tasks and use and generate data. Indeed, Frost and Sullivan forecasts that the “connected living” concept, comprised of the connected home, connected work, and even connected cities, will be a $731.79 billion market by 2020. Speech and voice technology will undoubtedly boast a major slice of it. Vendors such as Amazon are backing projects to develop voice control of everything from kitchen appliances to home security systems.”

As the Microsoft Windows Hello technology spreads, along with the introduction of new computer hardware, appropriate cameras, scanners and readers to take advantage of the software capabilities, more people will discover, as I have, that “logging on” with a glance or by touch is so much easier and faster. There have been several times when, as a Windows Insider, using the pre-release builds of Windows 10, that I have had to think for a few minutes to remember what my logon password was. I had gotten so used to using my pin (a four letter password), fingerprint or a glance at the screen, that my password seemed like a thing from the past. When I turn on my Surface Pro 4, the camera lights up and a “smiley face” comes up to log me on. A glance at the screen is all it takes.

As futuristic as this technology is, there is a global downside. Even though you are probably thinking “security,” this is not the real core issue. Security can be problematic, but there is a much deeper issue which goes to the foundation of our global society.

The idea of faster, easier and more human-like interaction with our connected devices presents two basic challenges. One is the extreme proliferation of data, rapidly expanding from terabytes to petabytes to exabytes. This data expansion is the prime driver of “the cloud.” Without “the cloud”, (huge data centers of thousands of computers) to store the data, along with the ability to process immense amounts of data, progress in this connected technology would be difficult at best.

However, beyond data storage and processing, there is a second, far more serious challenge presented as this technology progresses. These connected systems and required “cloud” are stressing the basic infrastructure of our global world, but probably not in the way you might think. Most of the data centers being built today use renewable energy and are very self-contained.

Because of the proliferation of electrical devices in this IoT and connected world, we need a very stable electrical grid, both to charge and to operate all these devices. This is a huge concern. Electric transmission lines, relay stations, transformers and other critical system components were developed for a 20^th century world, where there were a limited number of electrical devices in use. To be sure, a cell phone and many devices in use today are very energy efficient, however, they all require “always on” electricity in several different forms. For example, cell phones use batteries to operate, which have to be charged. But, they also need the “always on” electrical components in cell towers to relay signals.

Another key component of the electrical grid is the water infrastructure. Water is used not only to generate electricity, either via stream turbines or as hydroelectric turbines, but as cooling water for power plants, both conventional and nuclear. The water infrastructure is also under extreme stress due to overuse, climatic variations and growing population. It has also suffered badly from lack of maintenance, repair and upgrading.

Clearly, without a stable and “always on” electrical grid our technology would grind to a halt within a few hours or days. Chaos would reign. The more enmeshed we get into this wonderful, connected technology, the more vulnerable we become.

While I am far from a luddite, I am concerned. To this end, I present over 100 of these infrastructure and other challenges we face, plus some expert predictions in my downloadable EBook entitled World Collapse or New Eden, 2015 Edition.

So my question is, and has been, for the last twelve years or more; why haven’t we spent money, time and resources on strengthening this global infrastructure base upon which our emerging technology relies? After all, it is in our best interest on a global basis to do so. Why is this not the number one issue in our elections? How many of our political leaders, candidates and elected officials have you heard discuss these infrastructure issues in any meaningful way (beyond just platitudes)? As noted in previous blogs, we have no long term repair, replacement or upgrade policy for either the energy or water infrastructure. Even our discussion of the mix of our energy generation, coal, wind, solar, nuclear, is haphazard at best by those in the industry. Long term planning, in these infrastructures, which take decades to plan and build, is now defined by next month’s profit and loss statement.

The only long term policy for both the energy and water infrastructure seems to stem around money and power (no pun intended). “Let’s not spend any money, time or resources on repair, maintenance, installation, or replacement” is the mantra revolving around the basic infrastructure of today’s world. We seemingly don’t need educated people in the form of engineers and scientists, or even a critical thinking public, because they are not the people who are respected in our society. Clearly, it is the sports figures, actors, top CEOs and even the Wall Street financial programmers who are being raised up on a pedestal and rewarded financially.

A good example of this was my own upbringing in the 1960s. With the proclamation of the goal to reach the moon by 1969 by President Kennedy, many of my generation went into science and engineering. It was deemed “cool” to aspire to achieve that goal many of us wanted to be a part of something bigger than ourselves. Today, the development of “apps” and the creation of a firm around those apps, regardless of profitably or long term viability is the model. Just look at Twitter and Facebook (disclaimer - I use both for keeping in touch and marketing). Look at the incredible talent, in all fields, not just programmers, going into the financial markets of Wall Street to help develop “quants” and other market trading software, just to make money.

Sadly, our “leaders,” whether in elected public office, government or private corporations are not helping this crisis. They should be fostering discussions around the energy and other critical infrastructures but aren’t. They don’t appear to be looking for solutions either. They could, at the very least, like President Kennedy, be pushing for an expanded NASA, with goals to reach into the universe. This would at least say to the young generation that they need to think about goals beyond just enriching themselves. They could also be pushing ways to make education more affordable for our youth, as the discredited Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders did. The main goal of our elected and corporate leaders seems to be making the most money possible in the least amount of time and retiring at a very young age with huge benefit packages or stock options.

At the other end of the spectrum, the general public (read voter) apparently is more interested in the “side-show” of the recently ended “presidential conventions” or the Sunday afternoon football game (soccer in much of the rest of the world), than demanding discussions concerning these major issues, and many others, from those they aspire to elect. After all, while our leaders are in positions to make changes, they also realize that the general public can be very easily distracted by many things, and they are masters of distraction. Seemingly, to even hear a discussion involving these critical infrastructure issues, whether, energy, water, highways and bridges or communications, you need to go down to a very local level, with the people who are actually maintaining/installing/repairing the systems. Typically, these people have very little input with reference to direction or policy regarding their respective infrastructure on a national or international basis.

As I log in to my Surface Pro 4 using facial recognition or my fingerprint, I marvel at the possibilities. From Windows 10 to Microsoft’s new HoloLens, with its Holographic computing, the future is full of promise, in almost every human endeavor. The more I use the cloud for data storage and can access my data across my laptop, phone or tablet, the less chained I am to an office or even a specific device. Speech and bio-metrics, along with the cloud, are emerging technology and leading the way to an amazing “new” world, despite the daunting challenges.

As Ms. Jamison notes in her article:

“… it is an exciting time to be in speech technology and in technology in general.”

Sincerely,

H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Facebook: HCourtYoung
Phone: 303-726-8320
Email: tmcco@msn.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/hcourtyoung
Twitter: http://twitter.com/hcourtyoung
Blog: http://hcourtyoung.blogspot.com

Sent by Windows 10

IoT, the “cloud” and your Water Supply

 

A recent article in the September 2015 issue of Water Technology Magazine entitled The Internet of everything (even water) by Dave Eifert attracted my attention. It discussed how cloud-based monitoring, using the Internet of Things (IoT) can benefit the water industry.

The reason it was of interest, beyond the pure technology aspect, was that the water district which I am a “director emeritus” is embracing similar technology. 

Dave notes five issues facing the water industry. This new technology has applications in all of these areas.

• Retiring personnel –reducing workforce and taking important knowledge with time [lack of continuity]
• Reduced funding
• Increasing regulations
• Drought
• Strategies to overcome water scarcity (such as reuse)

He further notes:

“With potentially fewer people to complete more complex work, looking to new technologies and service-delivery models to accomplish peripheral tasks makes sense. With this technology, water treatment professionals can focus on the main task [supplying clean, potable water]. …

IoT [Internet of Things] is new technology and a new service-delivery model that makes in-the-field devices smart and allows them to provide near real-time information to end users anywhere, as long as they have an internet connection.”

Smart meters and the “cloud” allow for faster acquisition and analysis of data. Dave uses the example of chlorine residual at the end of an existing distribution system. However, I would like to present a more critical issue which, in my opinion, impacts far more global water suppliers. It is especially relevant to smaller water supply systems.

As I have noted in numerous blogs, availability of clean potable water is critical to our survival as a species. Only about 7% of the water on Earth is fresh water in the first place; the rest is brackish or salt water, unusable by humans [in that state]. It stands to reason that water is one of our most precious resources.

As drought continues to encroach upon the western United States, the availability of clean, fresh water diminishes. More users with less water creates major challenges for both small and large water suppliers. California is an excellent example of the impact of major drought across all segments of society from homeowners to farmers.

Because of scarcity, the use of water in the western United States has become a complex regulatory nightmare. This is especially true of the states of Colorado, Utah, Nevada, California, New Mexico and Arizona. These states depend upon one supply, the Colorado River, as their major source of water. It should be noted that the headwaters of this mighty river is also the state with the same name. As an aside, it is estimated that 70% of the practicing water lawyers in the United States reside in my home state of Colorado. Clearly, the reason for the predominance of water lawyers is they want to be close to the source of supply.

There is both a legal [having the right to use available water] and a physical [is there water actually in the river] component to water in the states using the Colorado River basin. For example, there was a newspaper article several years ago about a rancher in Southern Colorado. He had the first priority [the number one legal right to use any water in the stream]. However, as shown on the photograph with the article, the stream was completely dry. The opposite can happen; the stream or reservoir can be full but if you have a very low legal priority you might not get any physical water. During droughts in Colorado, water becomes almost unobtainable at any price.

So how can these smart meters, IoT and the “cloud” be used to help with the challenge of scarcity? Two specific uses come to mind. While similar in purpose, these two uses function differently in the water supply scheme.

The first use is by the water supplier. Having more data faster allows the water supplier to operate the water infrastructure with increased efficiency. These increased efficiencies can be seen in everything from billing the consumers for water used to the physical operation of valves and fire hydrants. Technology can be used, as noted by Dave Eifert, to monitor such things as chlorine residuals to keep the water in the system safer. It can also be used to make sure all areas of the supply system have the correct pressure and availability of water or to detect high flows in the water mains or even customers homes.

In addition, using these smart meters and the “cloud” allows the water supplier to take advantage of newer and more efficient computer technology to monitor the water supply system in less time. This is an extremely valuable benefit for the majority of small water supply systems, such as the one I am involved with, as it saves time and effort for the very small staff involved with operating and monitoring the system on a daily basis. We use Badger Meters and National Meter and Automation, Inc. as our suppliers for the hardware and software technology.

The second, and more important, use is the identification of leaks in the system. This can manifest itself by a drop in pressure in a length of line, or an increased flow rate through a house meter. Leaks, which often do not show up on the surface of the ground can be discovered by flow and pressure data sensors in the metering system itself.

Leaks in the supply system take on increasing importance during a drought. The scarcer the resource, the more valuable it becomes. Conserving the amount of water which is available to your water supply system becomes critical, especially to small districts like the one I am involved with.

It’s obvious that fewer leaks in a water supply system makes more water available for consumers for a multitude of uses including drinking, cooking and even fire and wild fire protection. If the staff has more data, faster, then leaks can be detected sooner. This is the significant benefit to installing and using these “smart meters” and the “cloud.”

However, there is a more important benefit across the system. Using these new IoT systems, not only the water supplier staff can get the data, but the consumer can as well. Using a simple cell phone “app” or a laptop or desktop computer, the individual consumer can check usage on a daily or even hourly basis. They can even use email or text alerts to be notified when usage exceeds a certain rate. In effect, there are more “eyes” monitoring the system.

If the consumer is interested in saving money, they can monitor their own water use on a daily or weekly basis with these cloud-based systems. As more consumers monitor their water use, it takes the strain off the staff of water supplier. Consumers, as they monitor their usage, will typically notice unusually high flows and request help from the supplier. Leaks will be detected sooner, and repaired with less water loss to the system and cost to the consumer. The entire water supply system and all of the customers are the beneficiaries.

Understanding how critical water is to humans and our planet is the reason that I wrote my books about water. They are available on Amazon in downloadable digital format. Understanding Water Rights and Conflicts, Second Edition explains in easy to understand language the concepts and challenges of supplying a scarce resource to an increasing population. Understanding Water and Terrorism explains how vulnerable our water supply system is to disruption from not only humans but also natural events, such as earthquakes, and hurricanes.

As you can see, there is a significant benefit to using the “IoT” and the “cloud” to monitor and manage our water supply systems. As the small district I am involved with found out, the process of implementing new technology is challenging and expensive. But in the end, it is very rewarding for all water users involved.

We all need to think and act as if water is our most precious resource, because in reality, it is.

Sincerely,

H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Facebook: HCourtYoung
Phone: 303-726-8320
Email: tmcco@msn.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/hcourtyoung
Twitter: http://twitter.com/hcourtyoung
Blog: http://hcourtyoung.blogspot.com