You hear a lot about the subject of “climate change” today. The issue, in my opinion, seems to center around “the right to make money or have a job” i.e. greed (use as much as “I” need), rather than taking the responsibility to act as a good steward, i.e. a longer term view of what is good for my neighbor, and the world as a whole.
As the debate rages, our “leaders”, especially in the United States Congress seem to act in a more and more irrational, short term manner regardless of whether they have an “R” or “D” behind their name. For example, one of the current issues being pursued by Congressional Republican Rohrabacher (R-CA), a senior member of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, is whether NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are “tampering with temperature data to create an artificial warming trend. Such data is then used to justify regulations aimed at curbing fossil fuel use and other industrial activities” (http://dailycaller.com/2015/02/20/republicans-to-investigate-climate-data-tampering-by-nasa/).
So, what does this have to do with the topic of unprecedented drought risk? I am glad you asked.
Most people, including “the experts” in the “climate change” debate on either side stop short of paying anything but lip service to the issue of water resources and short term water use. Water seems to be an afterthought. The attitude appears to be, “it has always been there (at our faucet or in our toilet) and it always will be there.” Having water in the developed world has effectively become “a right.”
Nothing could be further from the truth. Much of my life has been spent with the private development of water resources and water rights in the western United States both for private and public system consumption. Using and providing clean drinkable water in an arid and semi-arid part of the North American continent (or any other water challenged region) is very technical and complex because of the challenge of distributing a scarce resource to an increasing population.
Two articles come to mind when the subject of drought is mentioned to me. One is an article from 2009 which discusses a tree ring study (dendrochronology) done by Colorado State University. This article, in the Denver Post, entitled “Current Drought is a Wimp.” The second is a recent article and referenced paper on the internet entitled “Unprecedented 21st Century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains,” B. I. Cook, T. R. Ault, J. E. Smerdon, Sci. Adv. 1, e1400082 (2015).
Based on these articles and the research behind them, the following quotations give a good synopsis of what the water supply future for the western United States portends. What we consider as “normal” over the last 40 years may have been an aberration.
Dr. Neil Grigg, Professor of civil and environmental engineering, Colorado State University notes:
“Tree-ring studies and climatic data show that Colorado experiences wet and dry cycles. The great Colorado drought of 1276-1299 apparently drove the Anasazis from their homes in southwestern Colorado. Eight periods of severe and long- lasting drought have occurred since about 1700. The period from 1875 to about 1890 seen1s to have been very dry. The 1890- 94 drought in Eastern Colorado brought disappointment to newly- arrived dryland farmers, as described by author James Michener in Centennial. The 1898-1904 drought was the worst on record in Durango. The 1900- 1930 period was wetter- than- average. Drought returned from 1930 to 1940, and in 1939, several Front Range gages recorded their driest single year in history. West Slope droughts seen1 to coincide with those on the East Slope more often than not, but not always. The 1950- 1956 drought affected the whole state, and was worse in general along the Front Range than the 1930s drought. The 1974-1978 drought featured the driest winter in history, in 1976- 1977 (McKee, Doesken, Kleist, Shrier, and Stanton, 2000; Woodhouse, 2002).” - Drought and Water Policy: Implications for Colorado, Neil S Grigg, Hydrology Days 2003
The second study entitled “Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America", published on 29th July, 2012 in Nature Geoscience notes:
“North American 2000-2004 drought worst in 800 years”
“A new scientific study indicates the 2000-2004 drought in the North American West was the worst of the last millennium, with major impacts to the carbon cycle, and hints of even drier times ahead.
The study, titled “Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America", published on 29th July in Nature Geoscience, shows that the major drought that struck western North America from 2000 to 2004 severely reduced carbon uptake and stressed the region's water resources, with significant declines in river flows and crop yields.
The research group determined that carbon taken up by Western forests dropped by 30 million to 298 million metric tons per year. In normal conditions the forests would take up between 177 million and 623 million metric tons of carbon.
Researchers found that the four-year drought was the most severe region-wide event of its kind since the last mega drought 800 years ago.
“The 2000-2004 drought may be the wetter end of a new climatology that would make the 21st century climate like mega-droughts of the last millennium,” said Christopher Schwalm, the research leader from Northern Arizona.” 30 July 2012, TerraNature Trust, http://www.terranature.org/2000-2004NorthAmericanDrought.htm
If the paleo climactic data is correct, and the current droughts are truly “wimps” compared to the norm, what does that mean to us? It means that we, as water consumers, can no longer afford to remain “ignorant” of water issues. We must start impressing on our “leaders”, especially those in charge of our water supply systems, to face the issues and challenges. They need to come up with long term solutions, on a regional or even continent wide scale, not just “feel good”, “reward the large public/private users because of their money and influence” type policies of the past.
Clearly, if our current water supply systems are designed to survive a five, or even, ten year drought, and the coming drought is a thirty or fifty year drought, we are not prepared. A significant number of us living through those circumstances would probably be very thirsty.
We cannot allow the “experts” to continue to dictate water policy without getting involved. I have seen this first hand while being involved with a small water district west of Denver, Colorado for many years. More and more the District Board of Directors (of which I was one) are getting their consumers involved through education and out-reach. While this takes time and effort, it is worth it because the District Board gains support and effective input for the direction the District is going to upgrade the water supply system and develop policies for the future. The consumers understand why certain actions are necessary and they act as “eyes” and “ears” watching over the water infrastructure by which they derive their most precious resource – clean, potable water.
In 2003, I wrote a book entitled Understanding Water Rights and Conflicts, Second Edition. This book, published by BurgYoung Publishing, gives an overview of the physical use, legal availability and multiple use of water in the western United States (a typical arid to semi-arid environment). Available now in EPub (digital) format, it presents information critical to becoming an informed water consumer, as the main stream media is increasingly trumpeting the “party-line” with respect to water issues. This “party-line” is more and more reflected in policies and directions which benefit the very wealthy private and public corporations, including residential developers, agricultural interests, and most recently energy developers (i.e. fracking).
These large entities, and large water consumers, do create jobs, produce homes, food and energy, all of which we need. However, how does the average water consumer weight the cost of those jobs, food and energy against their way of life and their children’s future without some understanding of the issues and consequences? Because the issues are complex, education and knowledge are the only way to get an idea of what current policies may lead to in the future.
Another book, available in EPub (digital) format is World Collapse or New Eden, Your World in 2011 -101 Expert Predictions about Your World and What the Trends Are – 2015 Edition. In this book, I explore a number of issues including water, drought and energy. Written to explore how major global issues between 2006 and 2008 were predicted to impact your world in 2011, I updated it with a follow-up as of 2015. It is a fascinating view of where we thought we would be, where we were in 2011 and where we are today with respect to the original issues. As you might expect, we have not made much progress, in my opinion.
As someone involved in water and water issues for the last thirty years, and as a geologist, I have followed the climate debate for many years. First, I must point out that the climate and weather patterns are not static. They have been changing for millions of years due to a dynamic Earth in an ever changing Universe. I find the debate whether humans are the prime cause of “climate change” based on the last 10,000 years of record to be absurd, when the geologic record is billions of years old. That being said, I do hold humans primarily responsible for “climate change” based on their short sighted, greedy, “me first” approach to policy making and goal setting. If this were not the case, there would be a long term plan (10 to 20 years) for energy development and use on a national, if not global, scale, which would involve all forms including conservation, renewables, nuclear, oil and gas.
Effectively we have let “greed” and “complacency” overrule our ability and responsibility to be good stewards, both with “climate issues” and with “water issues.” It is a real probability that both climate change and drought will force an unprecedented change to our way of life, our future and that of our children and grandchildren.
Sincerely,
H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
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Water is our most precious resource - Understand why/how to protect & preserve it – Understanding Water Rights and Conflicts, Second Edition
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