Unprecedented Drought Risk and Climate Change

 

 

You hear a lot about the subject of “climate change” today. The issue, in my opinion, seems to center around “the right to make money or have a job” i.e. greed (use as much as “I” need), rather than taking the responsibility to act as a good steward, i.e. a longer term view of what is good for my neighbor, and the world as a whole.

As the debate rages, our “leaders”, especially in the United States Congress seem to act in a more and more irrational, short term manner regardless of whether they have an “R” or “D” behind their name. For example, one of the current issues being pursued by Congressional Republican Rohrabacher (R-CA), a senior member of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, is whether NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are “tampering with temperature data to create an artificial warming trend. Such data is then used to justify regulations aimed at curbing fossil fuel use and other industrial activities” (http://dailycaller.com/2015/02/20/republicans-to-investigate-climate-data-tampering-by-nasa/).

So, what does this have to do with the topic of unprecedented drought risk? I am glad you asked.

Most people, including “the experts” in the “climate change” debate on either side stop short of paying anything but lip service to the issue of water resources and short term water use. Water seems to be an afterthought. The attitude appears to be, “it has always been there (at our faucet or in our toilet) and it always will be there.” Having water in the developed world has effectively become “a right.”

Nothing could be further from the truth. Much of my life has been spent with the private development of water resources and water rights in the western United States both for private and public system consumption. Using and providing clean drinkable water in an arid and semi-arid part of the North American continent (or any other water challenged region) is very technical and complex because of the challenge of distributing a scarce resource to an increasing population.

Two articles come to mind when the subject of drought is mentioned to me. One is an article from 2009 which discusses a tree ring study (dendrochronology) done by Colorado State University. This article, in the Denver Post, entitled “Current Drought is a Wimp.” The second is a recent article and referenced paper on the internet entitled “Unprecedented 21^st Century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains,” B. I. Cook, T. R. Ault, J. E. Smerdon, Sci. Adv. 1, e1400082 (2015).

Based on these articles and the research behind them, the following quotations give a good synopsis of what the water supply future for the western United States portends. What we consider as “normal” over the last 40 years may have been an aberration.

Dr. Neil Grigg, Professor of civil and environmental engineering, Colorado State University notes:

“Tree-ring studies and climatic data show that Colorado experiences wet and dry cycles. The great Colorado drought of 1276-1299 apparently drove the Anasazis from their homes in southwestern Colorado. Eight periods of severe and long- lasting drought have occurred since about 1700. The period from 1875 to about 1890 seen1s to have been very dry. The 1890- 94 drought in Eastern Colorado brought disappointment to newly- arrived dryland farmers, as described by author James Michener in Centennial. The 1898-1904 drought was the worst on record in Durango. The 1900- 1930 period was wetter- than- average. Drought returned from 1930 to 1940, and in 1939, several Front Range gages recorded their driest single year in history. West Slope droughts seen1 to coincide with those on the East Slope more often than not, but not always. The 1950- 1956 drought affected the whole state, and was worse in general along the Front Range than the 1930s drought. The 1974-1978 drought featured the driest winter in history, in 1976- 1977 (McKee, Doesken, Kleist, Shrier, and Stanton, 2000; Woodhouse, 2002).” - Drought and Water Policy: Implications for Colorado, Neil S Grigg, Hydrology Days 2003

The second study entitled “Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America", published on 29th July, 2012 in Nature Geoscience notes:

“North American 2000-2004 drought worst in 800 years”

“A new scientific study indicates the 2000-2004 drought in the North American West was the worst of the last millennium, with major impacts to the carbon cycle, and hints of even drier times ahead.

The study, titled “Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America", published on 29th July in Nature Geoscience, shows that the major drought that struck western North America from 2000 to 2004 severely reduced carbon uptake and stressed the region's water resources, with significant declines in river flows and crop yields.

The research group determined that carbon taken up by Western forests dropped by 30 million to 298 million metric tons per year. In normal conditions the forests would take up between 177 million and 623 million metric tons of carbon.

Researchers found that the four-year drought was the most severe region-wide event of its kind since the last mega drought 800 years ago.

“The 2000-2004 drought may be the wetter end of a new climatology that would make the 21^st century climate like mega-droughts of the last millennium,” said Christopher Schwalm, the research leader from Northern Arizona.” 30 July 2012, TerraNature Trust, http://www.terranature.org/2000-2004NorthAmericanDrought.htm

If the paleo climactic data is correct, and the current droughts are truly “wimps” compared to the norm, what does that mean to us? It means that we, as water consumers, can no longer afford to remain “ignorant” of water issues. We must start impressing on our “leaders”, especially those in charge of our water supply systems, to face the issues and challenges. They need to come up with long term solutions, on a regional or even continent wide scale, not just “feel good”, “reward the large public/private users because of their money and influence” type policies of the past.

Clearly, if our current water supply systems are designed to survive a five, or even, ten year drought, and the coming drought is a thirty or fifty year drought, we are not prepared. A significant number of us living through those circumstances would probably be very thirsty.

We cannot allow the “experts” to continue to dictate water policy without getting involved. I have seen this first hand while being involved with a small water district west of Denver, Colorado for many years. More and more the District Board of Directors (of which I was one) are getting their consumers involved through education and out-reach. While this takes time and effort, it is worth it because the District Board gains support and effective input for the direction the District is going to upgrade the water supply system and develop policies for the future. The consumers understand why certain actions are necessary and they act as “eyes” and “ears” watching over the water infrastructure by which they derive their most precious resource – clean, potable water.

In 2003, I wrote a book entitled Understanding Water Rights and Conflicts, Second Edition. This book, published by BurgYoung Publishing, gives an overview of the physical use, legal availability and multiple use of water in the western United States (a typical arid to semi-arid environment). Available now in EPub (digital) format, it presents information critical to becoming an informed water consumer, as the main stream media is increasingly trumpeting the “party-line” with respect to water issues. This “party-line” is more and more reflected in policies and directions which benefit the very wealthy private and public corporations, including residential developers, agricultural interests, and most recently energy developers (i.e. fracking).

These large entities, and large water consumers, do create jobs, produce homes, food and energy, all of which we need. However, how does the average water consumer weight the cost of those jobs, food and energy against their way of life and their children’s future without some understanding of the issues and consequences? Because the issues are complex, education and knowledge are the only way to get an idea of what current policies may lead to in the future.

Another book, available in EPub (digital) format is World Collapse or New Eden, Your World in 2011 -101 Expert Predictions about Your World and What the Trends Are – 2015 Edition. In this book, I explore a number of issues including water, drought and energy. Written to explore how major global issues between 2006 and 2008 were predicted to impact your world in 2011, I updated it with a follow-up as of 2015. It is a fascinating view of where we thought we would be, where we were in 2011 and where we are today with respect to the original issues. As you might expect, we have not made much progress, in my opinion.

As someone involved in water and water issues for the last thirty years, and as a geologist, I have followed the climate debate for many years. First, I must point out that the climate and weather patterns are not static. They have been changing for millions of years due to a dynamic Earth in an ever changing Universe. I find the debate whether humans are the prime cause of “climate change” based on the last 10,000 years of record to be absurd, when the geologic record is billions of years old. That being said, I do hold humans primarily responsible for “climate change” based on their short sighted, greedy, “me first” approach to policy making and goal setting. If this were not the case, there would be a long term plan (10 to 20 years) for energy development and use on a national, if not global, scale, which would involve all forms including conservation,  renewables, nuclear, oil and gas.

Effectively we have let “greed” and “complacency” overrule our ability and responsibility to be good stewards, both with “climate issues” and with “water issues.” It is a real probability that both climate change and drought will force an unprecedented change to our way of life, our future and that of our children and grandchildren.

Sincerely,

H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
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Phone: 303-726-8320

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Water is our most precious resource - Understand why/how to protect & preserve it – Understanding Water Rights and Conflicts, Second Edition

How Many More Things will Come Back to Impact Us and Future Generations?

 

A headline in the February 2, 2015 issue of Processor Magazine made me wonder how many more things we have done due to lack of thought, planning or absolute greed will come back to impact this generation and future generations. When is enough, enough?

The headline, “Oil from Deepwater Horizon spill found in Gulf of Mexico sediment,” brought back memories of almost six months of continuous news coverage from April 20, 2010 into December 2010. People around the globe were glued to their television screens during this drama, and it’s not over yet.

This article described the results form a new study led by Professor of Oceanography Jeff Chanton of Florida State University. According to the study:

“Some of the oil released in the Deepwater Horizon disaster was not cleaned up, but settled on the floor of the Gulf of Mexico.”

In addition:

“Some 6 million to 10 million gallons are buried in the sediment on the floor of the Gulf, about 62 miles southeast of the Mississippi Delta.

In total, more than 200 million gallons of crude oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico in April 2010 when the Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded. The accident killed 11 people and caused exte4nsive damage to marine and wildlife habitats in the region.

The U.S. government and BP cleanup crews were unable to locate all of the spilled oil. But now, almost five years later, natural abundance radiocarbon measurements on surface sediment organic matter have shown where oil is distributed on the ocean floor.

Chanton noted that in the short term, the oil sinking to the sea floor might have seemed like a good thing because the water was clarified, and the oil was removed from the water. But it’s a problem in the longer term.

Less oxygen exists on the sea floor relative to the water column, so the oiled particles are more likely to become hypoxic [hypoxic is oxygen deficient - dead zones low-in oxygen, Sea water that is both deep and still, such as at the bottoms of some fjords, tends to be hypoxic or anoxic.]. That means it’s more difficult for bacteria to attack the oil and cause it to decompose.

If the sediment is stirred up in the future, the oil could enter the water again. And the contaminatio9n will also enter the food chain, because the worms ingest the sediment and fish eat the worms.”

The Chanton study and its findings have been published in the latest edition of the Journal Environmental Science and Technology.

Events such as the Deepwater Horizon Oil spill, Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster, and the Fukushima Reactor meltdown all will have long term impacts on our world. What these environmental impacts will be we are not sure. However, it seems logical that we should work to prevent these impacts before they happen rather than after.

But, you say, in the case of Fukushima, no one could have predicted the earthquake and Tsunami. While that is true, the nuclear plants could have been designed, engineered and built with the maximum event in mind. Yes, it would have cost a bit more in both time and money initially, but Japan and the world might not be faced with a very uncertain future due to this crisis today. It seems that these reactors and others have been rushed into operation based on immediate profit rather than long term efficiency and safety. Where was the long term energy policy looking at all forms of energy, not just the forms which would produce the most profit for the few?

It seems clear that these and many other events/disasters throughout our industrial development could have been avoided or at least mitigated by a bit more thought, study and long term planning.

For example, I noted that a prediction in The Bible Code, Michael Drosnin, April 1998 stated:

“The Bible Code predicts a Mt. Rainier eruption in 2010-2011.”

While this has not happened, the USGS notes:

“U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research shows that Mount Rainier is one of our nation’s most dangerous volcanos. It has been the source of countless eruptions and volcanic mudflows (lahars) that have surged down valleys on its flanks and buried broad areas now densely populated.”

Some mitigation effort and emergency plans have been developed with the aid of the USGS and other state and local agencies but will they be enough?

Another prediction which could have significant impact on our global society was noted in September 2006 by Jeff Hecht on New Scientist Tech News Service.

“Navigation, power and communications systems rely on GPS satellite navigation will be disrupted by violent solar activity in 2011, research shows.”

However, again,  it seems that we “dodged a bullet” based on 2015 comments:

“The sun’s current space-weather cycle is the most anemic in 100 years, scientists say.”

The fix to shield many of our electrical equipment, computers, satellites and electrical grid is apparently not extremely difficult or even costly. It just takes the will to study, plan and implement the solution. So how have we spent the last 8 years with regard to this challenge? Because of “cost” and “lack of resources” very little has apparently been done to mitigate this major threat to our way of life. Private and public utilities are seemingly unwilling to cut into “profits” and do what is best long term for the country and global community.

This challenge from space really goes to the core of the problem as it’s not like we have not had time to work on the solution. A major solar flare happened in 1859, which burned out telegraph wires. We have been studying the problem since the early 20th century.

The solar flare challenge is similar to the Chernobyl Reactor meltdown (April 1986),  the Deepwater Horizon spill (April 2010), the Fukushima Reactor meltdown (March 2011) and numerous other threats we face. These threats which happened in the past, as well as, on-going and future threats to our physical infrastructure are not our only long term challenges. Other major threats include such financial system concerns as credit default swaps, unlimited credit creation and bond/currency manipulation.

As I noted previously,  numerous predictions detailed in my EPub entitled World Collapse or New Eden, Your World in 2011, 2015 Edition, from the period 2008 to 2011 are still important and looming in today’s world. For example,  It was thought that OPEC would have more than 30 percent of the market share of the global oil market by 2011. However, my 2015 comment notes “OPEC’s oil market share is set to be 5 percent or smaller by 2018 as supply of U.S. shale oil grows faster than previously thought.” This is one of the primary reasons for the drop in oil prices today, which is a way to eliminate the competition and restore market share.

Our “leaders,” heads of governments, CEOs of international corporations and many of the top 1% (elites) are too busy amassing wealth and gobbling up resources to really be concerned with such challenges. It was recently noted in several article on the internet that in 2015 it is estimated the top 1% own approximately 50% of global resources/wealth.

The “general public,” on the other hand, is too busy making a living and being entertained to really study and understand the issues. They settle for candidates, elected officials and rulers selected, approved and financed by the top 1%. As we are finding out in the United States, whether there is an “R” or “D” behind the name makes very little if any difference in the long term. This makes for the perfect storm.

In the unrelenting quest for money and profit, how many more of these “disasters” will we allow? How many more can we allow? How will these and future disasters impact us, and future generations? What will the long term impacts be? Why are so few asking for answers to these questions of those in control, be they corporate CEOs, presidents or legislators?

We, as humans, seem to continue to pursue the “latest and most urgent profit making tasks” without regard to (or just plain ignoring/disregarding) the long term impacts. We refuse to create long term discernable goals whether in the usage of water, energy, minerals or in the production of millions of products which make up our modern life.

As noted previously, many of the above challenges can and could have been mitigated. It starts with a committed educated “general public” to select and put into positions of power individuals who will take a longer term view-point. This will only be effective if these individuals put aside their own short term welfare for a longer term “what is best” for the planet and its inhabitant’s point of view. For example, it is no coincidence that the 535 members of the United States Congress are among the wealthiest Americans and as a body can get very little done on these or any other issues.

Having both an enlightened general public and leadership that puts the global interest above their own self-interest may be the only way we, as a global community, will be able to confront and answer the question “how many more things will come back to impact us and future generations.”

H. Court Young

Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Twitter: waterauthor
Facebook: HCourtYoung