Big Bucks and Our Future

 

I just read an excellent article written by Richard Nass in the August 2014 issue of Design News magazine. Mr. Nass’s article was entitled “Who Deserves to Make the Big Bucks?” His article inspired me to write this blog about our society’s and the global perception of big bucks and our future.

The basic premise of this article is a quote used by Mr. Nass from the keynote presentation by Dean Karmen. Mr. Karmen recently received the 2014 lifetime achievement award from UBM Cannon and is reportedly involved with a group whose acronym is ”FIRST.” It stands for:

”For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology”

According to the article, the mission of FIRST is;

”to inspire young people to be science and technology leaders by engaging them in exciting mentor based programs that build science, engineering and technology skills, that inspire innovation, and foster well-rounded life capabilities including self-confidence, communication and leadership.”

According to Mr. Nass one of one of Mr. Karmen’s comments can be paraphrased as follows:

“Why are we celebrating someone to control a baseball 90 miles an hour or two can put a basketball through a hoop, when the real stars are the kids who are starting down the path toward changing the world.”

You can read on almost any mainstream media website, like, MSN.com, in the sports section, descriptions of astronomical sums of money being thrown at these young, and even not so young, sports people. This occurs in football, baseball, golf, gymnastics and baseball, and even in my favorite sport, tennis.

While I am in no way a sports fan, and typically avoid watching it, I am not anti-sports. I do appreciate people who excel no matter what the activity.

However, Mr. Nash notes the current crop of NBA free agents in his article. He reflects on the monetary excess these talented people can expect from their status as free agents. He states;

“Those who are ‘free agents’, looking to latch on to the team that generally bids the highest for his services. And the numbers being thrown around our astronomical, upwards of $100 million (yup, you heard that right).”

However, along with the reported “astronomical” reward numbers, there also seems to be daily articles about these high profile, highly paid talented people going astray. For example, the following new story entitled, “Suspended Browns receiver Josh Gordon gets new gig selling cars at Ohio dealership.” This story on Fox Sports news notes “Gordon will be working a full work week - a minimum of 40 hours - according to Sarchione, with responsibilities in "every facet" of the dealership, including selling cars. Sarchione also said Gordon will be getting involved in the community by working with local charities.” Allegedly, Mr. Gordon was caught violating the league substance abuse policy.

In addition, recent news articles about domestic violence, as well as, drug use by high profile individuals, specifically in the sports arena, makes this issue even more relevant.

I applaud the NFL for cracking down on drug and domestic violence issues with both players and employees. These high profile, highly paid talented people have a dramatic and real impact on the younger generation. They are high visibility people who should be held to a higher standard for their very public actions because of their impact on future generations.

I do however question, just like Mr. Karmen, why we idolize and put these people on a pedestal when they really have very little long term impact on our society in any very deep way. Just because they command a large amount of public visibility and certainly a large, if not obscene amount of compensation, what do they really contribute? While I realize they provide entertainment and can be very beneficial role models for young people to one degree or another, is this really what we want our society to look like?

I spend a lot of time watching the Microsoft Research Video Library on the Internet. This program features some of the most innovative people in all aspects of life. The programs presented range from authors talking about their books to computer programmers talking about the research.

Topics/titles include:

· Introducing Project Adam: A New Deep Learning Program

· The Purpose Economy

· Recurrent Neural Networks for Dialog State Tracking

· Ultra Low Power Computers – 2014: Devices & Cloud

In my opinion, the people presenting on the Microsoft Research Video Library, as well as, the ones listening to them are the true “superstars.” They, in a very large way, are changing the perception and direction of our society. Many of these creative minds are the true innovators and builders of our technological society. They are the people who are propelling this country and our world forward into the 22^nd century.

[Note: The Windows 8 app link for this library is as follows, http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/downloads/eb218b76-3520-481c-8489-ad09a99399ea/default.aspx.]

There are many other worthwhile informational web sites similar to the Microsoft Innovative Research Program which will expand your mind and pique your curiosity. With all of the new information technology available, I find it ironic that one of the countries with the highest standard of living the world has ever seen spends the following amounts of time watching television.

Specifically, Nielsen, a global information and measurement company, reports the average weekly usage for ascending age groups:

· Age - 2-11: Time watched - 24 hours, 16 minutes.

· Age - 12-17: Time watched -20 hours, 41 minutes.

· Age - 18-24: Time watched - 22 hours, 27 minutes.

· Age - 25-34: Time watched -27 hours, 36 minutes.

· Age - 35-49: Time watched - 33 hours, 40 minutes.

· Age - 50-64: Time watched - 43 hours, 56 minutes.

· Age - 65-plus: Time watched - 50 hours, 34 minutes.

· [From: http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/average-american-watches-5-hours-tv-day-article-1.1711954: also http://www.nielsen.com]

While the television is an incredible invention which changed the world, much of the current programming, in my opinion, is in the same paradigm as the sports programs. While entertaining, these programs do little to inspire creativity or generate much in the way of thought. The Nielsen figures say a lot for the world we have created and for the one we are creating going forward.

So with the world in the state it is, why do we still revere the person who can throw a baseball at 90 mile per hour, sink a 100 foot put or put a basketball through a hoop? Perhaps life has become too easy for many in America and around the globe. After all it is easier to “sit” and be “entertained” rather than watch, read or study something that arouses curiosity and makes you think.

Or maybe it is “big business” with massive advertising campaigns and huge inventories of products and services to sell to make next quarter’s bottom line which drives us.

Either way, I believe the big bucks are not going to the people who will make this world better using their creativity and innovation in fields like engineering, science and technology. And yet, these are the people who, in large measure, give the most back to our society both in productivity and intellect.

Clearly we have wonderful technology which can and hopefully will dramatically change the world in years to come. What we lack are creative and innovative minds who both see value from using those talents and are valued for those talents, much as the sports stars are today. We need to adopt a mission statement like that of FIRST as a society.

From medicine to space travel, we need a paradigm shift to create and enhance minds like those that FIRST is trying to inspire and help develop.

H. Court Young
Promoting awareness through the written word
September 18, 2014

Big Data and CES 2014

As I watched the coverage of the 2014 Consumer Electronic Show (CES) held in Las Vegas, Nevada last week, I reflected back to a recent article which discussed data analysis as it related to managing employees, as well as employee learning and development. This article was a special report in the January 2014 issue of Talent Management magazine.

The article noted that large amounts of data, termed “Big Data” is the watchword in our global economy among computer and IT professionals. While the Talent Management article related to employees, it could just as well have related to our world in general from a data standpoint.

As a refresher, the following table relates data amounts (all values are approximate):

• · Kilobyte – 1,000 bytes
• · Megabyte – 1,000 kilobytes
• · Gigabyte – 1,000 megabytes
• · Terabyte – 1,000 gigabytes
• · Petabytes – 1,000 terabytes
• · Exabyte – 1,000 petabytes
• · Zettabyte – 1,000 exabytes
• · Yottabyte – 1,000 zettabytes

To make sense of the amount of data related to the values shown above, the following were noted in the Talent Management magazine article.

• 1 Gigabyte is equivalent to about seven minutes of high-definition video and two gigabytes is equivalent to about 20 yards of books on a shelf.
• 1 Exabyte is equivalent to about 250 million DVDs and five exabytes would just about cover a transcript of every word spoken in human history.
• 1 Petabyte is equal to 20 million four-drawer filing cabinets filled with text or 13.3 years of high-definition video.

To envision the challenges which may lie ahead, consider the smart phone revolution taking place today. Smart phones are taking the cell phone market by storm. This “portable, always connected” world is the new normal, even in developing countries. More people, globally, are connected via cell phones than by the 20^th century technology of the telephone and copper wires known as “land lines.”

So what does all of this have to do with the CES 2014 show in Las Vegas? New electronic products including curved big-screen ultra-high definition televisions, Windows 8.1, Apple and Android tablets, cell phones with high-definition screens and cameras and numerous “wearable electronics were all introduced to an increasingly digital driven world. Other digital devices such as appliances and even automobiles were demonstrated at this show. All of these devices go to the core of the “big-data” challenge.

As an example, cell phones, such as the Nokia Lumina 1020 with 40 mega-pixel capability, rival the photo taking ability of many high end digital cameras. Think of the megabytes and gigabytes of data which are transferred from these marvels of technology in both image and video format to tablets, laptops and internet social media sites on an annual basis. As a new grandparent, I can testify to a definite increase in photo production and transmission in our family to Facebook and other social media sites, as well as an increase in the amount of photos on my external USB storage drive.

One of the devices introduced at CES 2014 which caught my attention (not that all of them are not fascinating) was introduced by Belkin.

“A Belkin Crock-Pot WeMo Smart Slow Cooker ($99.99) is displayed during a CES media preview event. The crock-pot can be controlled remotely via a smartphone and should be available in March.”

This new crock pot allows a user to control the utensil using a cell phone. Presumably, one could “call into” your home network and turn the crock-pot on or off while still at the office, as well as monitor the progress of the utensil. When you arrived home, your dinner would be ready. The following is from the Belkin press release before the CES 2014 show.

LAS VEGAS – January 8, 2013 – Belkin, creator of people-inspired technology products, today announced WeMo SMART, a program designed to bring its simple, Wi-Fi based WeMo home automation platform to new brands and a wider variety of household devices. Jarden Consumer Solutions ("JCS"), a leading provider of global consumer products brands, will be the first company to partner with WeMo SMART for its Sunbeam®, Crock-Pot®, Mr. Coffee® and Oster® brands.

Operating this crock-pot does not sound like a data intensive process on the surface. However, it does require a control mechanism on the pot as well as, such as a home based WI-FI network connected to the Internet. It also requires an application which resides on the phone itself. This application is the programming which allows the phone and the crock pot and other home appliances to “communicate.”

These cell phone applications, termed “apps,” are relatively small amounts of programming which take advantage of the features and functions of the phone to perform a task. Apps are generally separated into three categories, tool apps, games apps and marketing apps. Clearly, the app for the crock-pot would be a tool app.

However, this is where it gets complicated. There were an estimated 800,000 “apps” available on each of the Google and Apple stores as of the end of 2013 (see mobithinking.com). The apps are only limited by the phone, tablet or computer technology, the technology which can be built into things like appliances and other objects, the total bandwidth available and finally the storage capacity available for the apps and necessary data. Examples of apps include controlling your smart television and playing games across the internet.

While Microsoft was late to the “app game,” it introduced the Windows 8 operating system in 2012/2013. This operating system is able to take advantage of these apps across different platforms, desktop, laptop, tablet and cell phone. Microsoft had over 143,000 “apps” in its store as of January 12, 2014 (winbeta.com).

Developing and writing apps has become a mini-economy unto itself. While many “apps” are free to install and use, most are not. Many of the games and other tools cost a few dollars or more. This is the evolution and monetization of program development and writing.

Think of our world, and the data, band width and processing requirements as our phones and computers start to communicate with stoves, dishwashers and other everyday appliances. It is not inconceivable that your refrigerator will communicate with the local grocery store to resupply any food which you are out of or you need for a specific recipe. Your refrigerator will need to store and compile data on what is currently in stock, how old it is, the expiration date and what you might need for a specific recipe. Whether this is on a storage device in the refrigerator, on a device in your home Wi-Fi network or on an external data storage unit, it will still increase your data storage requirements. The majority of the new consumer electronics at the CES 2014 show will increase the use of your home Wi-Fi network, as well as the more general networks of providers such as Verizon, AT&T and others.

The simple “apps” of the new tablet, and smartphone revolution take on a much larger significance. They are the tip of the iceberg. Our storage capabilities will need to increase both locally, in our homes, and globally.

For example, terabyte sized storage drives are now common in very slim USB form factors. These drives can be connected to tablets, ultra books and laptops. Most people use this type of drive, as well as flash drives to store their data today. Soon, instead of terabytes, these drives will be storing petabyte and exabyte quantities of data. These work for home storage, often acting as “network attached” or “external attached” storage devices shared by multiple computers, laptops, tablets and cell phones.

In addition, to share, process and utilize this vast quantity of data beyond our home computing devices and our local Wi-Fi communication providers such as Verizon, AT&T and others have to increase the amount of bandwidth we can access globally.

Storage “in the cloud” is the new business model for communications providers and most large international companies. Emerson says there are 509,147 data centers worldwide, with 285.8 million square feet of space. Or in more familiar terms, there’s enough data center space in the world to fit 5,955 football fields as of 2011 according to datacenterknowledge.com. Once you start considering the amount of data we process today, you get a sense of the explosion which is taking place today. It was estimated in 2011 there was 1.2 trillion gigabytes (GB) of data created, equivalent to 75 billion 16 GB iPods. That’s more than enough for every person on earth to own 10 iPods (source datacenterknowledge.com). All that data has to live somewhere, driving the need for more data center facilities.

To store all of this “big data”, data centers are being constructed at an increasing rate globally. In the next few years, most of the data previously stored on local servers in the back rooms of many businesses will be stored in these data centers. Microsoft, Amazon and Google, to name a few are positioning themselves to profit from this model in a big way.

These data centers allow massive quantities of data to be “mined” (analyzed and manipulated) which can yield everything from customer buying patterns to more intimate details about consumers in general. All of which can point toward additional customers and thus more revenue. Just as you will be able to tell your crock-pot to finish cooking dinner so it will be hot and ready when you arrive home, your local grocery store may be able to suggest recipes and specific ingredients for you to try based on your buying habits and tastes using a connection with your refrigerator.

Recent stories about the National Security Agency (NSA) collecting, manipulating and analyzing huge quantities of data from computers and cell phones worldwide is one of the potential downsides to this “cloud storage” concept. Security and protection of data may be one of the fastest growing fields in computer and internet technology for years to come.

So, the point is that many of the consumer electronics that previewed in Las Vegas at the CES 2014 show are part of an increasing revolution. As you can see, even the smallest, seemingly insignificant use such as those required by many of the new “wearable” electronics contribute to the massive increase in global electronic data. Computers, technology and electronics continue to change the world in ways that are increasingly unexpected, both for good and for bad. One thing is certain, the amount of electronic data in the world will definitely increase on a per person basis from today’s terabytes to tomorrow’s exabytes and beyond.

H. Court Young
January 12, 2014

Your World in 2011 Predictions Analyzed in December 2013

In 2008 I wrote an eBook entitled “World Collapse or New Eden, Your World in 2011.” This eBook was a compilation of over one hundred predictions by experts in all fields of endeavor.

In this, the year of the birth of my first Granddaughter, I wanted to see if these predictions give any clue to what her life may be like. How reasonable and/or predictive were these experts’ prognostications?

Accordingly, some of my favorite predictions from this eBook are reproduced as follows.

1. “By 2011 16,000 bbl. annually (average 160 bpd) at a cost of $30.00 per barrel from the Green River Formation (oil shale)” – World Oil Magazine, March 2008

2. “But by 2010 or so, many Middle Eastern nations will themselves be past the midpoint. World Production will then have to fall.” Oil and the Future of Energy, Scientific American, The Lyons Press 2007

3. “Within two years these nations [OPEC Stares in the Middle East] will pass 30 percent nearing the Level reached during the Oil-Price shocks of the 1970s. By 2010 their share will quite probably hit 50 percent." Oil and the Future of Energy, Scientific American, The Lyons Press 2007

4. ''Our studies indicate that it is feasible to stabilize atmospheric CO2 levels AT 450 ppmv over the next half a century if coal-based energy is completely decarbonized and other measures are implemented. This effort would involve decarbonizing 36 gigawatts of new coal generating capacity by 2020 (corresponding to 7 percent of new coal capacity built worldwide during the decade beginning In 2010 under business-as-usual conditions).” Oil and the Future of Energy, Scientific American, The Lyons Press 2007

5. “And just this past May, General Electric vowed to raise its energy efficiency by 30 percent by 2012 to enhance the company's shareholder value." Oil and the Future of Energy, Scientific American, The Lyons Press 2007

6. The Bush Administration called for an ‘Ambitious but Achievable' reduction in carbon intensity of 18 % by the year 2012." Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

7. ''At Hudson’s Bay, near the southern end of the polar bears range, the summer fast is now a month longer than it was decades ago and the average birth weight of cubs dropped 15% from 1981 to 1998. The WWF [World Wildlife Fund] estimates that, if this trend continues, females may become too thin to reproduce by year 2012.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

8. “Any delay in getting started [emission cuts] will only add to the sharpness of the emission cuts required in the 2020s and beyond. Interestingly, the team found that if the US and developing world both continues to emit freely after 2012, then the 2 C goal will slip out of reach by 2030.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

9. “Even if the prescribed reductions [Kyoto targets] were maintained for a full century-rather than until 2012-they would only bring down the year 2100 temperature increase by a few percent, according to a 1998 analysis by Tom Wigley fo the US National Center for Atmospheric Research.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

10. “The renewable obligation which requires that at least 10% of electricity comes from wind or other renewable sources by 2010 with an ‘aspiration’ to increase this proportion to 20% by 2020.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

11. “With a raft of initiatives such as those in place, the UK aims to reduce its overall emissions (relative to 1997 levels) by 20% by 2010, 60% by 2050 and 80% by 2100.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

12. “One such city is taking shape on an island just northeast of Shanghai at the mouth of the Yangtze River. In stark contrast to the well-worn cities of Europe, the new city of Dongtan will be built from scratch on Chongming, China’s third largest island. The population of up to 10,000, expected by 2010 (with another 70,000 in later phases) will drive hybrid cars or peddle bikes along a network of paths. Renewable power for homes and businesses will flow from a centralized energy centre being developed in partnership with the University of East Anglia.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

13. “General Motors has set itself an even more ambitious target of selling hydrogen cars by 2010.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

14. “As of 2006, ethanol production in America was on a par with Brazil’s – close to eighteen billion liters (five billion US gallons) – but that equaled less than 4% of the fuel swallowed each year by America’s cars and trucks. New tax breaks and incentives could nearly double that percentage by 2012.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

15. “The biggest challenge may be the profusion of electricity-guzzling equipment, from fridges and lights to big screen TVs. Indeed, a 2006 report by the Energy Saving Trust suggested that at current rates of increase, the amount of energy consumed in UK homes by electrical goods is set to double by 2010.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

16. “Bush based the case for his initial first-term tax cuts on the $237 billion surplus inherited from Clinton and the $5.6 trillion surplus projected through 2011.” The Coming Generational Storm, Kotlikoff & Burns, The MIT Press, 2005

17. “The number of retirees in Chinas’ cities will soar from 48.2 million last year to 70 million in 2010 and 100 million by 2020, according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Security. Unlike the United States and Europe, which prospered before their elderly populations expanded, China is in danger of growing old before it gets rich.” USA Today

18. “Mt. Rainer eruption, volcano, ash, cinder, blast, blew, AD 2010-2011” The Bible Code

19. “Comet impact, 2011 AD, toxic” The Bible Code

20. “Great Earthquake” The Bible Code

21. “Canada's Conservative government says the country's troops will leave southern Afghanistan in 2011.” Associated Press (AP), CNN February 2008

22. “Navigation, power and communications systems that rely on GPS satellite navigation will be disrupted by violent solar activity in 2011, research shows.” New Scientist Tech News Service, Jeff Hecht, September 2006

23. “Israel's government on Monday endorsed the ambitious plan of a private entrepreneur to install the world's first electric car network here by 2011, with half a million recharging stations to crisscross the tiny nation.” AP, January 22, 2008

24. “By 2011, more than 9 million households in the U.S. will subscribe to telco-provided video service, according to Boston-based Yankee Group Research.” The Business Review (Albany), February 29, 2008

25. “Millennia ago, Egyptian and Celtic authors recorded prophetic warnings [now in the Kolbrin Bible] for the future and their harbinger signs are now converging on 2012. The Destroyer [Planet X] is also known today as Wormwood, Nibiru, Planet X and Nemesis.  There are also troubling prophetic correlations to the future predictions of Mother Shipton's "Fiery Dragon" and the "Red Comet" warning of the Mayan Calendar 2012.” Kolbrin website, http://kolbrin.com

26. “Desalination is also the most high-tech and most international part of the water industry. The market is expected to reach us$66 billion in 2010 and us$126 billion by 2015.” Blue Covenant, Maude Barlow, 2007, p73

27. “In 2011, the law will revert to the prior pre-2001 law (i.e. federal estate tax will be owed) unless new legislation is passed. The experts are predicting and speculating that the estate tax in one form or another will not be entirely repealed, i.e. it is not likely new legislation will keep the year 2010 law in place in 2011. Predictions are that the law will change again before 2010 or at a minimum, no new legislation will occur and the prior tax law will come back in 2011 as the 2001 Tax Act sets forth. Predictions are that spending on anti-terrorist measures will cause a need for additional revenue. The estate tax in some form will likely be needed to generate this revenue.” Joanne M. McCormack, http://www.mccormacklaw.info

28. “More and more players have entered China's online travel fray - and why wouldn't they? In 2006, online travel services in China was a US$200 million (€150 million) market with 2.75 million users a 72 percent increase in volume and 82 percent increase in value from 2005, according to Shanghai-based iResearch Consulting. By contrast, the industry in the US is expected to grow 17 percent annually through 2010. And frenzied growth is not letting up - China's market is expected to double this year alone, reaching 5.7 million users by 2008. Its projected online travel market will hit US$860 billion by 2010.” Fully booked, Panthea Lee, EuroBiz Magazine, September 2007

29. “We have presented a set of models that produce predictions for the number of US land falling hurricanes likely to occur in the next five years. The models are based on a variety of plausible assumptions and methods. In this article we have emphasized the assumptions, the benefits and the shortcomings of each model.” 5 Year Prediction of the number of Hurricanes which make U.S. Landfall, Stephen Jewson, Enrica Bellone, Thomas Laepple, Kechi Nzerem, Shree Khare, Manuel Lonfat, Adam O’Shay, Jeremy Penzer, Katie Coughlin, Risk Management Solutions; London, UK., Alfred-Wegener Institute; Bremerhaven, Germany, London School of Economics; London, UK, http://www.rms-research.com/references/Jewson.pdf.

30.“In the US Dollar Index, a significant weight is given to the Euro. In order to more accurately reflect the strength of the dollar relative to other world currencies, the Federal Reserve created the Trade Weighted US Dollar Index, which includes a bigger collection of currencies than US Dollar Index, based on the annual trade that they have with US. The regions included are Europe (Euro countries), Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, United Kingdom, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sweden, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile, and Colombia.” From "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_Weighted_US_dollar_Index"

31.“Russia has had a growth in sales of world brand cars. Its automotive market has grown at an annual rate of 5-7% and is expected to cross 2.33 Mn car sales by 2014. Russian Automotive Industry Forecast (2006-2011) - In it predictions are made that – Sales of domestically manufactured cars will remain more or less consistent throughout 2005-2010. Russian assembled cars of foreign parts, which presently make a sale of 220,000 units, will further, gradually grow by 2010. Brand new imported cars will enter the Russian market and will escalate by 2010.” RNCOS Research: (http://www.marketsmonitor.com/category/IM036.html)

32.“Over the decades much discussion has focused on finding the exact correlation between the Mayan Long Count and the Gregorian calendar. Most researchers in the field have now come to agree that the so-called GMT correlation, placing the beginning of the Long Count 4 Ahau 8 Cumku on the Julian day 584 283, August 11, 3114 BC, is correct. This means by consequence that it will end on December 21, 2012 and most, such as Jose Arguelles, John Jenkins and Terence McKenna, who have taken an interest in the calendar of the Maya, have endorsed this date as the end of the current cycle.” Mayan Calendar: Why the Creation Cycles do not end December 21, 2012, but October 28, 2011, Carl Johan Calleman, http://www.experiencefestival.com/a/2012/id/1726

33. “Why did the ancient Mayan or pre-Maya choose December 21st, 2012 A.D., as the end of their Long Count calendar? This article will cover some recent research. Scholars have known for decades that the 13-baktun cycle of the Mayan "Long Count" system of timekeeping was set to end precisely on a winter solstice, and that this system was put in place some 2300 years ago. This amazing fact - that ancient Mesoamerican skywatchers were able to pinpoint a winter solstice far off into the future - has not been dealt with by Mayanists. And why did they choose the year 2012? One immediately gets the impression that there is a very strange mystery to be confronted here. I will be building upon a clue to this mystery reported by epigrapher Linda Schele in Maya Cosmos (1994). This article is the natural culmination of the research relating to the Mayan Long Count and the precession of the equinoxes that I explored in my recent book Tzolkin: Visionary Perspectives and Calendar Studies (Borderlands Science and Research Foundation, 1994).” 2012: The how and why of the Mayan end date in 2012 AD, John Major Jenkins, Mountain Astrologer, Dec-Jan 1995, http://www.experiencefestival.com/a/2012/id/7257

34. “There is a lack of information regarding the amount of lead, PCBs, ozone depleting substances and other potentially hazardous and toxic substances that are contained in major appliances. PCBs are contained in capacitors, transformers and motors, particularly in older equipment and it is estimated that approximately 10% of old appliances contain PCBs.1 CFCs were previously used as refrigerants and insulation on refrigerators, freezers and air conditioners, before they were phased out in the 1980s and 1990s. It is estimated that at least half a million appliances containing PCBs and CFCs will continue to enter the waste stream each year until at least 2010 or 2015.” Major Appliances Materials Project, Commonwealth Government Initiative, National Heritage Trust, 2001, http://www.environment.gov.au/settlements/publications/waste/electricals/majorapplicances/pubs/majorapplreport.pdf

35. “So far that seems to have worked: consensus standards on ballasts for fluorescent lamps and clothes washers negotiated in 2000 are being implemented as planned with effectiveness dates in 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2010; and over a dozen new consensus standards were negotiated in the succeeding five years and were enacted into law in the Energy Policy Act of 2005.” Saving Energy, Jobs, David B. Goldstein, Bay Tree Publishing, 2007

36. “French electric rates are at the same level as the U.S., so nuclear power doesn’t seem to result in lower rates. Perhaps the most telling point is that for the past two years, the French have been going gangbusters for wind power. They will have 2 million KW from wind power by the start of 2007 and their target is 13.5 million KW by 2010.” Winning Our Energy Independence, S. David Freeman, Gibbs Smith, Publisher, 2007

37. “China has set forth a renewable portfolio standard goal similar to that adopted in California and Texas, that 5 percent of their energy will come from renewable by the close of this decade, 2010, and 10 percent by the close of the next, 2020.” Winning Our Energy Independence, S. David Freeman, Gibbs Smith, Publisher, 2007

38. “This will also be the likely annual falloff or ‘average decay rate’ [4% per year] for oil production and use through about 2008-35.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005

39. “Year 2000 is, so far, the year of peak production. A 2,400 Gb ultimate would delay the theoretical peak until year 2012. Since production at the peak is quite flat, the model gives a production rate in 2012 of only 6.2 percent larger than in 2000. This is in sharp contrast to the demand-driven prediction of the IEA [International Energy Agency], which calls for an increase of about 23 percent in production from now to 2012.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, Prediction of World Peak Oil Production by Seppo A. Korpela

40. “Europe’s imports of oil are set to rise from the current 50 percent to 75 percent by 2010 and to 90 percent by 2025 which will cause a huge drain on its balance of payments as it vies with the U.S. and other countries for Middle East oil.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, The Assessment and Importance of Oil Depletion by Colin J. Campbell

41. “Oil provides some 40 percent of the world’s energy needs and as much as 90 percent of its transport fuel. It also has a critical role in agriculture, which provides food for the world’s population of 6 billion people.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, The Assessment and Importance of Oil Depletion by Colin J. Campbell

42. “The French Parliamentary report writers Bireaux and Le Deaut recently noted of Germany’s decision to abandon nuclear energy: ‘Given the strength of Germany’s industrial capacity and the number of both domestic and international market opportunities for new and renewable sources of energy [NRSE], what might have initially appeared as economic suicide could in fact be the very reverse, the choice of a major strategic change at the right moment and therefore the best possible decision. The abrupt change has already led to the creation of around 35,000 jobs in the wind energy sector and Germany’s government has announced that up to 120,000 jobs will be created in the sector by 2010.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, French Nuclear Power and the Global Market, An Economic Illusion by Marc Saint Areman and Andre Crouzet

43. “When we consider the institutional response to global warming, it is very important to recognize that a kind of critical mass has already been reached: over 180 nations have ratified the Kyoto Treaty. The range of possible measures, some starting in 2008 and others in the period 2010-12, have ramified to implicate every aspect of the economy and society in the north and south.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, Oh! Kyoto by Andrew McKillop

44. “Those will focus on oil and gold, energy areas, arms and defense industries, certain utilities, some agro-industries, government paper (such as Treasury Bills), and of course hard cash. When oil prices continue to rise, as they will in the foreseeable future of the five to eight year range, this defensive strategy will simply fall apart.. As numerous chapters in this book show, there is no likelyhood of cheap oil or energy surviving beyond about 2010-15, and the second date is generous: well before 2010 could be the ‘expiry date’ for conventional or classic bourse plays.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, Crash and Crumble, Oil shocks and the Bourse by Andrew McKillop

Comment: Bourse: a stock market in a non-English speaking country, esp. France, also the Paris stock-exchange. Oxford College Dictionary

45. “The baby boom generation – those born between 1946 and 1964 – is making its way through the age groups like the proverbial pig through a python and will account for an explosive increase in the numbers of elderly beginning in 2011.” Introduction to Public Health, Mary Jane Schneider, Jones & Bartlett Publishers, 2004

46. “It is likely that in the future, there will be fewer metals and more plastics entering the waste stream as a result of appliance disposal. However, it would seem that there is an upper limit to the amount of plastic that can be used in major appliances, and that some components will continue to be manufactured from metals (or composite materials containing some metal). It is noted that there is a distinct lack of information regarding the amount of lead, PCBs, ozone depleting substances and other potentially hazardous and toxic substances that are contained in major appliances. However, assuming that PCBs and CFCs were used in appliances manufactured before 1990, it is estimated that at least half a million appliances containing these substances will continue to enter the waste stream each year until at least 2010 or 2015.” Major Appliances Materials Project, National Heritage Trust, Commonwealth of Australia, 2001

47. “The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012 -- potentially affecting airline flights, communications satellites and electrical transmissions. But forecasters can't agree on how intense it will be. A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday it is evenly split over whether the peak will be 90 sunspots or 140 sunspots.”

Comment: A sunspot is a region on the surface of the sun, called the photosphere, which is temporarily cool and dark compared to surrounding regions. Sunspots average 1500 degrees Celsius compared to an average surface temperature of 6000 degrees Celsius. Sunspots also have magnetic field strengths thousands of times greater than the surrounding surface. It is estimated that sunspots cycle every 11 years.

1. “From 2007-2011, predictions indicate a 45% increase in low-glycemic food products to reach over 1.8 billion dollars.” On Becoming an Entrepreneur, Capital: Girişim Rehberi 2008, http://man102.bilkent.edu.tr/Files/Week03/Lec3.ppt
2. “The Barcelona Metropolitan Region is divided in administrative terms into seven "comarques" (equivalent to the English counties) Balance between supply and demand indicates that security margins are below desirable levels and that area is prone to a water deficit that is likely to become significant in 2010. Alternative sources of supply (water re-use, desalinization and transfer from another basin) are considered either unfeasible or insufficient by water authorities.”, Barcelona Field Studies Centre, April 2008, http://geographyfieldwork.com/barcelonawatersupply.htm
3. “GE [General Electric] has committed to invest $1.5 billion in R&D to develop environmentally friendly products through 2010 and aims to double revenue from eco products and services, with a goal of reaching $20 billion by that year.” An inconvenient lack of metrics, Kate Maddox, BtoB Magazine, April 7, 2008
4. “Oil firms resumed their push into deep-water pools about four years ago, and Transocean’s business gradually picked up from there. It really took off in the past year.

Transocean’s rigs are essentially booked solid through 2010. Its backlog stands at more than $32 billion.” Transocean’s Profits Skyrocket on Record Deep-Water Rig Rates, Marilyn Alva, IBD, April 9, 2008

So as you read through these predictions from what seems like a lifetime ago, what do you think? Two things come to mind, from my perspective.

• Clearly, the world did not end. It barely even slowed down.
• The world and all of us are 5 years older.

Let’s look at a few of these predictions and compare them with today’s world as of December 30, 2013.

1. Oil shale from the Green River formation in Colorado – Response: Didn’t happen but natural gas boom from shale formations is in progress.

13. General Motors predicted to have hydrogen cars – Response: Didn’t happen. We are barely using the technologies and resources which exist today and which were discovered in the 19^th and 20^th centuries to help improve our energy use.

17. China’s generational crisis is a major problem – Response: China relaxed its one child per family policy.

18. Mt. Rainer eruption – Response: Didn’t happen

19. Comet impact – Response: Didn’t happen

20 Great earthquake – Response: In Japan, March 11, 2011, off the east coast, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and resulting tsunami caused the Fukushima Nuclear disaster. Approximately 18,500 people died as a result of the earthquake and tsunami. An unknown number of people worldwide may be impacted by the radiation released by the destruction of the four reactors.

21. Canada troops to leave Afghanistan by 2011 – Response: Canada still has 620 troops in Afghanistan tasked with training.

22. Navigation, power and GPS systems knocked out by solar flares – Response: Didn’t happen on a massive scale, but some normal disruptions.

25. By 2011 more than 9 million Americans subscribe to teleco based subscription services – Response: Cable subscribers are dropping as Americans use more and more wireless services and store massive amounts of data “in the cloud.” Cloud subscription services are growing exponentially. “Global spending on public cloud services is expected to grow 18.6% in 2012 to $110.3B, achieving a CAGR of 17.7% from 2011 through 2016. The total market is expected to grow from $76.9B in 2010 to $210B in 2016.” http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2013/02/19/gartner-predicts-infrastructure-services-will-accelerate-cloud-computing-growth/

26. Desalination is expected to reach $66Bn by 2010 and $126Bn by 2015. - Response: The Global Desalination Market 2013-2023 research report website says the global desalination market is set to reach over $19.5bn in 2013. This is significantly less than predicted in 2011 and shows how embedded the “status quo” is in the water world.

28. More and more players have entered China’s online travel fray … 2.75 million users in 2011. – Response: China is an increasingly important global economic and political power and destination. One of these Chinese online travel service providers, Ctrip, has been reporting solid financial results to date. In Q2 2013, it reported total revenues of CNY1.3 billion ($215 million), an increase of 28 percent from the same period in 2012. It predicted that for the third quarter of 2013, net revenue growth will continue to grow at about 20 percent-25 percent on-year. http://thenextweb.com/asia/2013/10/01/the-online-travel-industry-in-china-is-booming-as-chinas-largest-us-ipo-in-2-years-shows/#!qXlra

33. Why did the ancient Mayan or pre-Maya choose December 21st, 2012 A.D., as the end of their Long Count calendar? – Response: While there were many posts and videos on YouTube.com and other sites on the internet regarding the demise of our world in 2012, nothing happened. We still are not sure why the Mayans choose this date to end their long count calendar, but it didn’t end ours.

36. Perhaps the most telling point is that for the past two years, the French have been going gangbusters for wind power. They will have 2 million KW from wind power by the start of 2007 and their target is 13.5 million KW by 2010. - Response: End 2012: 7,564 MW (+14 %)[from End 1997].

41. Oil provides some 40 percent of the world’s energy needs and as much as 90 percent of its transport fuel. It also has a critical role in agriculture, which provides food for the world’s population of 6 billion people. – Response: From the International Energy Outlook 2013 website, “However, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the outlook. Global natural gas consumption increases by 1.7 percent per year. Increasing supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane support growth in projected worldwide natural gas use. Coal use grows faster than petroleum and other liquid fuel use until after 2030, mostly because of increases in China's consumption of coal and tepid growth in liquids demand attributed to slow growth in the OECD regions and high sustained oil prices.” Clearly, energy use is shifting to natural gas.

43. When we consider the institutional response to global warming, it is very important to recognize that a kind of critical mass has already been reached: over 180 nations have ratified the Kyoto Treaty. – Response: Climate change effects are increasingly becoming evident everywhere and the international community is getting down to brass tacks to establish a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol. The envisaged international treaty is unlikely to hold water, should the principal carbon emitters shun or not join it. … With carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere reaching a milestone of 400 ppm (parts per million) and climate change-related disasters manifesting themselves globally, the planned treaty is set to be finalized by 2015 and take effect in 2020. - http://tshephomokwele.wordpress.com/2013/06/10/climate-change-a-successor-to-the-kyoto-protocol-needs-the-powerful/

45. The baby boom generation – those born between 1946 and 1964 – is making its way through the age groups … - Response: It has been projected, based on the current system, that Social Security will provide 60 to 70 percent of retirement income for boomers in the bottom half of the income distribution in 2019. For most baby boomers, retirement incomes will be well above those of today's retirees (50 to 60 percent higher), and will be more than adequate, but the projections indicate that the proportion of elderly baby boomers who will be poor or near-poor may reach almost 20 percent, with the majority of these being singles, and especially single women (House Ways and Means Committee). http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/Baby_boom_generation.aspx

47. The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012 … - Response: The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 65 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

50. GE [General Electric] has committed to invest $1.5 billion in R&D to develop environmentally friendly products through 2010 … - Response: In 2010, GE set an ambitious goal of growing ecomagination revenues at twice the rate of total company revenue in five years. In 2012, ecomagination met this objective, with revenue totaling $25 billion. http://www.ge.com/globalimpact/ecomagination.html

51. Oil firms resumed their push into deep-water pools … - Response: The growing demand for energy, coupled with increasing investment in offshore exploration activities, will drive the global offshore drilling market to $121.1 billion by 2018 … . The newest economical drilling location is in ultra-Deep-water, which is considered wells drilled in at least 5,000 feet of water. http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/wvs8h7/offshore_drilling, and http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/10/deepwater-drilling-has-a-bright-future.aspx#.UsHqLP13sh4

As you can see, many of the predictions which I published in my eBook World Collapse or New Eden, Your World in 2011 are still major challenges for all of us. While we have made some progress, much of the time between the eBook publication in 2009 and today, December 2013, has been concerned with a global economic and currency crisis. This economic crisis is still hampering global growth and may continue to do so for years.

Between a global political class which is at best “totally self-serving” and the top 2% of our society (economically) which is obsessed with their own “well-being” (i.e. greedy); the global middle class has a battle on its hands just surviving. Without a strong, vibrant middle class, solutions to these and other challenges we face may not be possible.

Given that it is the middle class which typically drives the entrepreneurial engine on a global basis, I am concerned for the next generation. Clearly, many of the challenges mentioned in these predictions still dominate the headlines and our lives, and there are fewer people willing and able to risk, dream and work toward solutions in the private sector.

I believe that many of these predictions which I assembled 5 years ago will continue to plague my granddaughter’s generation. I hope and pray that is not the case but if our progress in the last few years is any indication, then that may well be the case.

Despite the challenges and concerns, there is much good in this world and in our lives. Just remember to take time to enjoy a sunrise or sunset, read a good book or just talk with a friend or family member. Share yourself with others and allow them to do the same with you.

I will end by wishing my family, especially my new granddaughter, and my readers the very best in the new year of 2014.

H. Court Young
http://www.hcourtyoung.com

The Water Abundance Myth – Have things changed?

The average person has no idea about the issues surrounding water according to an October 2009 WaterWorld article entitled The Illusion of Abundance, by Dave Angelo. It is now three years, five months later and I wondered if anything has changed with regard to the average person’s knowledge of our most precious resource, water. After all, more people than ever are connected to the internet. The global use of smartphones, tablets and computers makes information readily available.

Quotes from that 2009 article provide a baseline for comparison:

“In spite of $1 trillion having been spent on water compliance issues over the last 30 years:

· 45-50 million Americans are exposed to unsafe water

· One-half of the major US watersheds have serious water quality issues

· One-half of the communities do not comply with CWA or CSO laws

· 218 million Americans live within 10 miles of polluted waterways

Also … at least 2.6 billion people, some 41 percent of the global population, do not have access to any sort of basic sanitation facilities.”

Fast forward to May 2012. In a December 2012 article entitled, Public or Private, the Question is how to pay for it, Water/Wastewater Processing, by Kathy Shandling. Kathy notes

“According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), there is close to a $1.0 trillion infrastructure investment need in this country’s water and wastewater systems over the next 20 years. More importantly, it is anticipated that there will be a 20-year infrastructure investment gap of $102 billion for drinking water systems and $122 billion for wastewater systems. The operations and maintenance gap is even larger - $161 billion for drinking water systems and $148 billion for wastewater systems.”

So much for needing to spend less money in the future than we have spent in the past. Clearly, the $1.0 trillion spent over the last 30 years (prior to 2009) wasn’t enough, if we need to spend $1.0 trillion over the next 20 years (starting in 2013), especially if we will have a significant short fall.

It is interesting to note that 2012 marked the 40^th anniversary of the Clean Water Act (CWA). Passed in 1972, this act was designed to (from Productivity Perspectives, Water/Wastewater processing, Dec 2012, by Kevin Parker):

1. Eliminate releases of high amounts of toxic substances into water

2. Eliminate water pollution

3. Ensure surface waters meet established standards

Has this legislation had any impact on our water/wastewater supply systems and the public perception of these systems? The answer is yes and no.

According to Kevin Parker:

“A story in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, highlights an announcement by Minnesota state officials that more than a decade to work to clean up wastewater including millions of dollars spent on construction, and new technology, has made the ‘lower reach of the Minnesota River a much healthier place for aquatic life’.”

Additionally, Parker notes:

“Pollution caused by wastewater effluents has been reduced to such an extent that today non-point source pollutants such as sediments, nutrients, pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers, animal wastes and other substances entering the water supply as components of run-off and groundwater account for more than 50% of pollution in U.S. waters.”

Clearly, water/wastewater suppliers have made some progress due to legislation such as the Clean Water Act and its corollary, the Safe Drinking Water Act. Eliminating waste water effluents by 50% is definitely progress.

Has legislation had an impact? A November 2012 article about Hurricane Sandy comes to mind. Michael Peltz, editor, Institutional Investor Magazine wrote Long Day’s Journey in the Dark. He notes:

“I would have made a terrible pioneer. When Hurricane Sandy slammed into the New York tristate region on October 29, I was … working in my home on the North shore of Long Island …. My wife, daughter and I lost power that evening about 6:30 pm. At first it was fun. We cooked dinner by candlelight, played card games and put on layers of clothes to stay warm before climbing into bed. But ten days later, as I sit huddled in my darkened house writing this, the novelty is gone.”

He sums up by saying:

“Politicians need to reach a compromise to avoid plunging the U. S. over the fiscal cliff because a much bigger question is lurking. The U.S. aging power grid and transportation system. In its most recent report card, the American society of Civil Engineers gave the U. S. infrastructure an overall grade of D, or poor, and estimated it would cost $2.2 trillion over five years to raise that grade. After 10 days and counting of sleeping in a cold dark house, I am hoping that it doesn’t take another natural disaster for Washington to find the political will to tackle the U.S. infrastructure troubles.”

In my opinion, our government and the political process is totally out of touch with the needs of our country and its citizens. It can’t even follow through with existing legislation. Because of this, as a country, we are becoming much less competitive globally as our critical infrastructure declines. So much for lofty speeches and the grand sideshow that hallmarks our political system and media.

How has the decline in our critical infrastructure systems impacted the perceptions of the average person? Numerous articles, papers and books have been written about the decline in our infrastructure, including the water/wastewater components. Most Americans have access to this information.

Again according to an article entitled Gauging Industry’s role in water reuse, December 2012, Water/Waste processing, the public’s education seems lagging.

“Industrial conglomerate GE has released the results of the survey of 3000 consumers in the United States, China and Singapore. It indicates that Americans believe large water users are most responsible for contributing to water scarcity. Additionally, they strongly support reusing water to help the U.S. drive economic competitiveness and protect the environment. Yet, Americans understanding of water lifestyles and solutions falls behind those of survey participants in other water challenged countries.”

The survey notes that Americans feel water is the single most important service they receive, beating electricity and heat. Yet 31% of Americans don’t know where their water come from, compared to only 14% of those in China and 15% of those in Singapore. Less than half know how their water is cleaned for community use (47%) and how water is disposed of after it’s been used (49%).

According to the survey:

“When asked about a series of terms relating to water, Americans have the least familiarity with the terms of recycled water (60%) and water reuse (51%). Conversely more than 8 of 10 respondents in China were familiar with these terms and feel more positive about them.”

“Despite a lack of understanding of water, Americans are clearly concerned about water scarcity and the availability and quality of water for the future. The survey shows Americans will support using recycled water for many nondrinking uses which currently use a large volumes of freshwater - and believe we should do so to maintain economic growth. In fact, many are willing to pay a bit more now to ensure clean water down the line.”

In a December 2012 article entitled Election Behind Us, We Keep Marching Forward, James Laughlin, editor, WaterWorld, noted:

“While water was never an issue in the presidential [Obama-Romney] campaign, I’m happy to say it was an issue on the Oklahoma ballot. State voters approved a measure that allows the Oklahoma Water Resources Board issue up to 300 million in bonds help on drinking water and wastewater needs across state.”

Laughlin continues:

“With Obama secure for another term, I expect EPA will move ahead with new drinking water regulations and continue its push for compliance of clean water act rules. It will be business as usual, and the next four years will probably look very much like the last four, in terms of Washington.”

In another December 2012 WaterWorld article entitled Obama reelection could accelerate drinking water regulation by Patrick Crow it is noted:

“Water infrastructure investments are mandatory if the nation is to avoid extreme water events like hurricane Sandy, the water environmental Federation (WEF) said after the November election. WEF Executive Director Jeff Eiger said replacing the nation’s aging water infrastructure is one of the key problems the Obama administration faces over the next four years.

Our central water infrastructure is failing and is woefully inadequate to address the new normal weather patterns. Restoring existing drinking water systems and expanding them to serve a growing population will cost at least $1 trillion over the next 25 years.

Eiger said, ‘with millions of Americans out of work the timing could not be better to reinvest in our water infrastructure, create jobs, boost the nation’s economy, and get more prepared for the next wet weather emergency’.”

“For water, I think 2013 will be another year of hardship. For sewage, another year standing pat. Beyond 2013, we will see gradual improvement from the current situation.” According to another December 2012 WaterWorld article entitled Pace of Construction Expected to Remain Flat in 2013.

The Mississippi state Department of Health published three indicators which show that its drinking water supply system is gradually improving. These indicate rank 1,200 public water systems every year based on technical, managerial and financial capabilities.

The December 2012 issue of Water Technology notes:

“Casper College in Casper Wyoming will be able continue providing training for safe drinking water production with a $100,000 grant from the Environment Protection Agency (EPA). The grant will allow the college to continue the training program for the next three years. The grant will be used to offer training in the proper operations and maintenance of public water systems with classics focusing on small public water supplies (PES), transient nontransparent water systems, groundwater systems and surface water system operations.”

A January 2013 Water Technology Around the Industry article notes:

“The State of Illinois will benefit from a new $1 billion initiative the will help secure safe drinking water. Currently, residents are receiving water through water mains that are nearly 100 years old and are in dire need of being replaced.”

While water providers are struggling to maintain a very aging and out of date water/wastewater supply system, the population and the amount of water used continues to increase. This trend is going to continue because of rising standards of living around the globe.

Yet, even in our globally connected, technology driven world, hundreds, if not thousands, of people die every day around the world from the lack of clean water. Can you name any other disease or illness that affects that many lives every single day? If an equivalent number of people died because of plane crashes, or traffic accidents, the awareness of water issues would be much higher and probably solutions would happen much quicker.

Science tells us that there’s the same amount of water on earth as there was 1 million years ago. Clearly, from a water information standpoint, the education of the average citizen in the United States is not getting much better. If it were, then things would have changed from October 2009, when my article The Illusion of Abundance was written. We still believe that water, which is our most precious resource, is limitless. Without an educated and involved public, I don’t hold much hope that this perception will change until it is too late.

H. Court Young

Can our commercial and industrial infrastructure keep up with technology?

 

Recent reader comments in Network World Magazine (April 23, 2012) caught my attention. With the challenges of a global financial crisis, high unemployment and a lagging educational system, can our commercial and industrial infrastructure truly keep up with the ever faster technology advances? In addition, can we keep the existing technology used in our infrastructure working?

The comments under the heading, “The End of Windows XP Support: A Security Nightmare,” were posing the question about the numerous computer systems still running Microsoft Windows XP operating system. One commenter, by the name of “Greenman” notes:

“XP is also embedded in many POS [point of sale], registers, kiosks, ATMs and other devices. All told there are more XP systems out there than desktop statistics reflect. This is going to by a huge global IT community problem, and it is not in Microsoft’s financial interest to do anything about it except push Windows 7 upgrades.”

According to Microsoft, support for Windows XP will end on April 8, 2014. To get a sense of the impact of this support cutoff, I researched the extent of XP use. There were an estimated 400 million copies of Windows XP in use as of 2006. As of April, 2011, it was estimated that Windows 7 had a market share of 31% while XP held an estimated 46% share (www.Networkmarketshare.com).

I looked up Kiosk usage. These commercial machines are in many malls and airports and provide services, products and information. It is estimated that there are 700 companies engaged in the kiosk business with approximately 1,200,000 installed units (www.summit-res.com).

SCADA control systems are another significant concern with respect to reduction of support by older operating systems such as XP. These industrial systems use embedded chips along with the operating system to control manufacturing, water and wastewater systems and food processing systems, to name a few.

According to a blog post entitled “Six ways to improve SCADA security (3/19/2012, https://community.qualys.com/blogs/securitylabs/amolsarware):

“In many SCADA systems, the underlying OS or applications are not patched for years … because there is little guidance from SCADA vendors regarding whether or not an OS patch is safe for SCADA software.”

Further:

“Finally the Achilles heel of SCADA systems is their long lifespan, which is often measured in decades. These systems are built to last, and unlike PCs, which are easy to replace, it’s difficult and costly to replace even a part of a SCADA infrastructure.”

Another good example is the components in our water treatment systems. Many of these systems use chips in control valves, and other equipment to control, monitor and treat the water we need to survive. If these control components depend upon an operating system such as XP, what are the options? Can the OS be upgraded without impact on the processing and delivery of this critical resource?

The support for a major hospital system supplier uses XP on their technical platforms. They use this OS because it is stable and the underlying system was written in code that works with the OS. This integrated system runs everything from billing to dispensing medicine to individual patients. The entire system would need to be recoded if the OS were upgraded from XP.

Given a very difficult economy and very tight financial conditions, many companies, utilities and other users of these legacy based systems using XT, can’t afford to upgrade. In many cases, along with the software upgrade, a hardware upgrade would also be needed, resulting in additional expense.

For general business application software and hardware, Microsoft estimates that migration to Windows 7 and Office 2010 can take between 18 and 32 months. Think of the time it would take to upgrade a system with integrated chips and other controls in an industrial, manufacturing or healthcare system.

So where does the withdrawal of support for older computer operating systems such as Microsoft’s XP leave these users? Without support, these systems are more susceptible to hacking, viruses and other malware.

I don’t begrudge Microsoft pushing Windows 7. It is an excellent platform, in my opinion. I am also an avid user of the new Windows 8, which is out for consumer review. I have it on several of my laptops which I use daily. I have had no problems with any of the software which I typically use and I think it will be ideal for the new tablet and smart phones which will be introduced in the next few years.

The deeper issue is how we keep legacy systems operating when the financial emphasis is on pushing new operating systems out the door. This is not as big a challenge for consumer products as it is for manufacturing, industrial and commercial products. It is also a much easier process with an expanding economy.

Most Americans don’t think about, or even realize, these manufacturing, industrial and commercial computer systems exist. These systems, unlike the newest IPod, are critical to keeping this country functioning as a society. It was this computer technology that helped America become the industrial and commercial leader that it was. If we are going to continue to be a force in the global economy, can we allow our industrial and commercial infrastructure not to keep up with technology?

By H. Court Young

Getting involved during challenging times

 

Why is getting involved so important for all of us, both personally and collectively, in these challenging times? From a personal standpoint, expanding your world and relationships is one of the best ways to deal with our volatile world. We benefit collectively on a national and global basis by having and understanding a variety of ideas and points of view.

There is no doubt that we're all facing challenging times. Bankruptcies, mortgage for closures, job losses, and extremely volatile financial markets are in the headlines daily, if not hourly. Unemployment in the United States and globally, is as high as it has been since the depression of our parents and grandparents in the 1930s. Under these circumstances, it's no wonder that we want to turn on the television or cruse the internet and watch mindless entertainment for hours on end to escape.

But escapism is the worst thing that we can do under the circumstances. Alone with our thoughts, we can easily become depressed. Hopelessness spirals downward like light drawn into a black hole in space.

I witnessed one very good example of people who get involved. I often attend the annual Special District Association conference as a board member of the Lookout Mountain Water District. This association is made up of special districts across Colorado and includes water, sewer, parks and recreation, fire and emergency services districts. These special districts are the core of local government in many areas of Colorado, especially in rural areas. There are typically about 1100 people involved in special districts in Colorado which attend this conference.

In the past few years of economic downturn, revenues for most of these local governments were falling; infrastructure was failing and unemployment was chronic in the service areas of many of these special districts. You could sense the concern and even fear on the minds of many. After all, many of these people have spent a lot of time trying to make our lives easier, more secure and more stable. Their lifelong efforts are being threatened by current global challenges.

A few years ago, the Special District Association brought in a keynote speaker that cut through all of this to the core of the issue. His name was Steve Ford, second son of President Ford. Mr. Ford talked about his life in the White House at the age of 18. He discussed the trials of alcoholism and living with Betty Ford who broke through many of the taboos regarding celebrities with addiction problems.

Mainly though, Steve discussed his two nieces who challenged him to make more of his life. He had a very successful movie and acting career, was the son of a president and had conquered the ravages of alcohol addiction. These two young people, while giving Steve credit for all of his success, noted that he could do so much more.

Steve, as part of this challenge, took three years away from his acting career and busy schedule and started speaking to kids in Africa, high school kids in America and inmates in prisons. His anti-addiction message was very uplifting. During this time he spoke to over 65,000 high school classes in America alone and impacted countless lives.

You don’t have to be Steve Forbes, or even involved with a local government to get involved. There are many ways which you can make an impact both personally and nationally.

For example, America is in the midst of the 2012 presidential election year. While many of us take our right to vote seriously, how many of us actually review the policies of each of the candidates and make an informed decision. Most of us listen to the party line and vote accordingly. It is easier to take the canned platitudes and media sound bites, rather than research and try to understand the underlying issues. Issues such as the financial crisis, the health care system, wars in foreign lands and the energy crisis are just a few of the challenges facing us, locally, nationally and globally.

By H. Court Young

Our Budget Mess

The following is excerpted from an article by David Fischer, entitled Monkeying Around With our Debt Can Be Golden, Accredited Members magazine, Issue 3, 2011. I found it a very interesting way to understand the financial mess we are in as a nation as well as globally.

“The number that the government throws around is, for most people, hard to comprehend, so I thought I would put it into simplistic terms. The U.S. Congress sets a federal budget every year in the trillions of dollars. I created a breakdown of federal spending, so let’s put the 2011 federal budget into perspective:

U.S. Income - $2,170,000,000,000

Federal budget - $3,820,000,000,000

New Debt – 1,650,000,000,000

National debt - $14,271,000,000,000

Recent budget cut - $38,500,000,000

It helps to think about these numbers in terms that we can relate to. Therefore, let’s remove eight zeros (00,000,000) from these numbers and pretend that this is the household budget for the fictitious Jones family:

Total annual income for the Jones family - $21,700

Amount of money the Jones family spent - $38,200

Amount of new debt added to the credit card - $16,500

Outstanding balance on credit card - $142,710

Amount cut from the budget - $385

After reviewing the Jones’ budget, ask yourself … would you lend this family money or trust them with credit? Well, this is just what happened recently when Democrats and Republicans Finally agreed to cut the budget.”

Mr. Fischer makes this financial mess easy for anyone who has never ran a business, or had to balance a budget to understand. Yet our elected “leaders”, both republican and democrat, who are supposedly the “brightest and best” continue to exacerbate this mess. I think the majority of the general public can understand this example and the situation it puts us in as a country.

So, why do we continue to elect the same leaders or even tolerate the “choices” which are presented on the ballots? Ross Perot was a past example of a candidate not condoned by the establishment, and Ron Paul is a current example. Why do we not give these people a chance to lead the country instead of assuming that the candidates espoused by the major parties (Republican and Democrat) and the main stream media (CNN, ABC, NBC, etc.) or the current administration will lead us in a different direction?

We all have the opportunity to write in a candidate of our choice. Many of us have the opportunity to vote for Ron Paul directly. Think about this simple budget example and then ask yourself whether you really believe the mainstream Republican candidates or the current administration really understand this mess, given their past record.

Vote accordingly.

H. Court Young