Friday, March 6, 2015

American Exceptionalism, Reflections of the Past or Today’s Reality?

 

As we enter what would have been Dad's 98th year, and I continue to write about our lives together, I wonder about the concept of American Exceptionalism. This term is “bantered about” by all of those with an ‘R’ or ‘D’ behind their name, especially in election years.

In this age of exceptional greed, is it still possible to have an exceptional culture? What does that really mean or look like?

First, we must define the term. Wikipedia notes the following:

“American exceptionalism is the theory that the United States is qualitatively different from other nations.[2] In this view, U.S. exceptionalism stems from its emergence from the American Revolution, thereby becoming what political scientist Seymour Martin Lipset called "the first new nation"[3] and developing a uniquely American ideology, "Americanism", based on liberty, egalitarianism, individualism, republicanism, democracy and laissez-faire. This ideology itself is often referred to as "American exceptionalism."[4]”

“Although the term does not necessarily imply superiority, many neoconservative and other American conservative writers have promoted its use in that sense.[4][5] To them, the U.S. is like the biblical "City upon a Hill"—a phrase evoked by British colonists to North America as early as 1630—and exempt from historical forces that have affected other countries.[6]”

I believe most in America today would, if not explicitly, then implicitly use the “neoconservative” approach of superiority of the American culture and race. However, to Dad’s generation it meant something far different. While they may have expressed it in “neoconservative” terms, that is not what it meant to them.

In my book entitled, The Orphan Boy, A Love Affair with Mining, I note the following about a man who demonstrated true American Exceptionalism:

“One September afternoon I sat on the dump of a small mine in Colorado with a unique man, my dad, Herbert T. Young. Even at 12,000 feet, the sun was bright and warm, and the sky was so very blue. Below, the aspen leaves were just starting to turn gold, and there was a hint of fall in the air.

We had talked on the way up the rocky, steep road about the mines and the history of the area, as we often did. I never got tired of the many stories Dad told about his experiences and information he gathered in researching the mining district.

Arriving at the Orphan Boy mine, we sat down and had a cup of coffee from Dad’s ever present thermos. Even though I had previously heard many of his stories about this mine that started his love affair with mining, they seemed much more real as I sat with him in that remote and peaceful basin.

My eyes were drawn to the rugged splendor of the high peaks; Brittle Silver Mountain, Grizzly Peak, Revenue Mountain... Along the horizon were Gray’s and Torrey’s, two of Colorado’s fourteeners. The air was so clean I felt like I could almost reach out and touch the peaks across the Warden Gulch basin. Morgan Peak, behind me, and Santa Fe Peak to the south looked so close it seemed like I could hike to them in just a few minutes.

Everywhere I looked were evidences of the mining and prospecting that went on in a different time. I noticed the reddish brown and yellow gossans that streaked the mountain slopes in several places. All the while, this remote valley was very quiet, almost as if our thoughts themselves interrupted the solitude. This scene stirred something in my soul that words cannot begin to explain.

I thought of Dad and the many experiences he related to me. I noticed he was also scanning the mountains, deep in thought. He turned and smiled at me, with his brown eyes shining. I knew we were thinking, feeling and experiencing the same closeness to God in that moment.”

The feeling of kinship I experienced while sitting on that mine dump were similar to the feelings I had during the times Dad and I worked underground together. Working underground brings a special sense of closeness where everyone looks after one another. Even with 30 years difference in our ages, we were kindred souls.

A good example honoring others as you would yourself is as follows. This is a passage in my upcoming book, Light at the End of the Tunnel, about my Dad and our relationship:

“When mining at the Orphan Boy Mine, a story told in my book entitled Orphan Boy, A Love Affair with Mining, Dad offered his partners a ‘buy-sell’ agreement. He fully intended to buy them out and continue mining the Orphan Boy Mine.

Had Dad not offered his partners a ‘buy-sell’ agreement, not realizing they had the funds to buy him out, which he honored and was subsequently was bought out, things might have been different. This [Defense Minerals Exploration Administration (DMEA)] grant would have given the money to do the exploration at the Orphan Boy which Dad planned and always wanted to do and probably would have found the mineral that Dad always thought was there.”

Unknown to Dad, during the summer of 1952, his elderly partner, Fred Brooks, stated to the DMEA office staff that because the DMEA grant had been approved, his nephew had bought out Mr. Young’s interest and was attempting to buy out Mr. Schoonover (the third partner in the Orphan Boy Mine).

This grant was awarded before Dad was aware of it, and it was these funds that was used to pay back Mr. Brook’s nephew. Dad could have fought the buy-sell agreement, which could have been financially beneficial. This would have been the “neocon” approach. But Dad had given his word and made an agreement (which he signed), which he honored regardless of cost to him.

There are many other instances of this sacrificial type behavior throughout Dad’s life. He truly believed in “doing unto others as you would like them to do to you.” He loved people and it showed. He got a lot of joy in helping others and gave much of himself. He got a lot out of life and friendships.

I worked with Dad during the summers and after college graduation until his death and had the fortune to experience firsthand why his generation was named the “greatest generation.” He was typical of the World War II generation whose lives were interrupted by that war. When they came back home, they changed both America and the world in a special way.

Two other people in my life show this quality of “American Exceptionalism,” my son, William and my daughter Laura. They both are very talented, but deeper than that, they have the same gentile, quiet spirit that my Dad had. They both care about others and give much, but they get much from life as well.

As I note in Light at the End of the Tunnel:

“Years later, eating lunch as I sit on the dump [of the Orphan Boy mine] with my son, William, and my daughter, Laura, the memory that comes back most often is a sunny afternoon with Dad. I think of Dad and the many experiences he related to me. As I watch and listen to my children, I see in them the same fascination with life my Dad had. They look from one high peak to another with shining eyes and a sense of wonder that I saw so many years before in my Dad. These are gifts passed from one generation to another.”

I have met some of that generation (the 30 something’s) through William and Laura. I like what I see. They seem to be very practical and much more like the generation of their grandparents than my generation is.

My generation, from whom the current crop of “leaders,” corporate and political, come from, in general, doesn’t reflect the exceptionalism they are so fond of talking about. Our society is clearly a reflection of their views and qualities. In my opinion, very few show the same measure of exceptionalism of their parents.

It is for this reason I am writing about Dad, and our relationship. I want to touch the lives of others through writing which is why I attempt to “promote awareness through the written word.” It is also why I wrote my EPub, “The Art of Writing an EBook, How to Enrich Yourself and Others”.

All people have stories to tell. You have no idea the number of people who tell me that writing is “too hard” or “I don’t know where to start.” My EPub entitled “The Art of Writing an EBook, How to Enrich Yourself and Others,” can help with the “I don’t know where to start” challenge. I encourage you, my reader, to take a look at this EPub. If you have any desire to put your story into print, it is a resource which will help with many common writing challenges.

I had a mentor, best friend and Dad who demonstrated true “American Exceptionalism.” I see the same qualities in those of the generation of my children.

So, it seems that American Exceptionalism is alive and well in today’s world. It is not what those with an ‘R’ or ‘D’ behind their name term it or understand it to be. It is especially not what the “neocons,” corporate leaders or mainstream media (MSM) tell you it is. It is also not just an “American” trait, but is universal among people who truly love and value others as themselves.

American Exceptionalism is the quality of self-sacrifice and love of the other person that was demonstrated so well by my Dad’s generation and that is budding in the generation of their grandchildren. It is both a reflection of the past and a reality in today’s younger generation.

Sincerely,

H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Facebook: HCourtYoung
Phone: 303-726-8320

Email: tmcco@msn.com

Twitter: http://twitter.com/hcourtyoung

As a tribute to my Dad’s 98th year, I am offering a promotional discount of about 17% off on the EPub version of my book The Orphan Boy, A Love Affair with Mining. Visit Amazon.com by clicking of the link and check for this discount.

Monday, March 2, 2015

Lenovo, Cyberattacks and the Global Economy

The recent news about Lenovo Computer adding "Superfish" software (aka Adware) to its computers last fall (2014) inspired me to think about our global economy and computer infrastructure. How threatened is our way of life by these events and the increasing complexity of our world?

Lenovo installed Superfish which directed specific ads to be displayed on the affected computer based on the user's choices in web page viewing. Programs like Super Fish are called "ad-ware", short for advertising software, more affectionately termed "bloat ware" or "crapware."

Advertising software, or advertising supported software, is defined, by Wikipedia, as "any software package which automatically renders advertisements in order to generate revenue for its author." Newer adware is designed to analyze which internet sites the user visits and presents advertising "pertinent to the types of goods or services featured there", according to Wikipedia.

Below is a non-inclusive list of applications that bundle toolbars or unwanted add-ons with their installer (source Wikipedia).
  • •Absolute Uninstaller - Ask toolbar
  • •Ad-Aware - Google Chrome
  • •Adobe Flash Player - Google toolbar
  • •AnVir Task Manager Free - Dealio toolbar
  • •Any Video Converter – Google Chrome
  • •AOL Instant Messenger - AOL toolbar
  • •avast! Free Antivirus - OpenCandy
  • •AVG Free - Yahoo toolbar
  • •AVG LinkScanner - Yahoo toolbar
  • •BitComet - Google toolbar
  • •BitTorrent - Ask toolbar
  • •BS.Player - BS.ControlBar
  • •Burn4free - 1Click DVD Copy Pro
  • •BurnAware Free - ASK toolbar
  • •CCleaner - Yahoo toolbar
  • •CDBurnerXP - OpenCandy
  • •ClamWin - Ask toolbar
  • •COMODO Internet Security - ASK toolbar
  • •Core Temp - Search Enhancement
  • •CPU-Z - ASK toolbar
  • •CrystalDiskInfo - OpenCandy
  • •CrystalDiskMark - OpenCandy
  • •CSmenu - Ask toolbar
  • •CutePDF Writer - ASK toolbar
  • •DarkWave Studio - OpenCandy
  • •Defraggler - Google toolbar
  • •Devpad - Babylon toolbar
  • •Dexpot - OpenCandy
  • •Driver Sweeper - Open Candy
  • •ExtractNow - Registry Reviver
  • •FlashGet - Google toolbar
  • •FLVPlayer4Free - Video Download toolbar
  • •Fotosizer - Dealio toolbar
  • •Foxit Reader - Ask toolbar
  • •Free Process Freezer - FLV Direct Player
  • •FreeCommander - eBay shortcuts
  • •Freemake Audio Converter, Video Converter, Video Downloader - Facemoods toolbar
  • •Glary Utilities - Ask toolbar
  • •Gom Player - ASK toolbar
  • •HWMonitor - ASK toolbar
  • •ICQ - ICQ toolbar
  • •IE7Pro - Grab Pro toolbar
  • •Image Tuner - ASK toolbar
  • •ImgBurn - ASK toolbar
  • •Immunet - Ask toolbar
  • •IObit SmartDefrag - IObit toolbar
  • •IObit Advanced SystemCare - Yahoo toolbar
  • •IrfanView - Google toolbar
  • •ISO Workshop - ASK toolbar
  • •IZArc - Registry Booster
  • •MediaCoder - Nitro PDF Reader
  • •MediaInfo - OpenCandy
  • •Miro - Ask toolbar
  • •Moo0 Software - Autocomplete Pro
  • •µTorrent - µTorrent toolbar
  • •Nero Free - ASK toolbar
  • •Orbit Downloader - Grab Pro
  • •PC Tools Spyware Doctor - Google Toolbar
  • •PC Tools Firewall Plus - Google Toolbar and Threatfire
  • •PC Tools ThreatFire - Google Toolbar
  • •PC Wizard - ASK toolbar
  • •PDFCreator - Yahoo toolbar
  • •PDF-XChange Viewer - ASK toolbar
  • •Photobie - OpenCandy
  • •PhotoFiltre - ASK toolbar
  • •PicPick - Bing toolbar
  • •Quick StartUp - ASK toolbar
  • •Quicksys RegDefrag - ASK toolbar
  • •RapidTyping - Bing toolbar
  • •RarZilla Free Unrar - ASK toolbar
  • •Recuva - Yahoo toolbar
  • •Registry Repair - ASK toolbar
  • •Satellite Antenna Alignment - Relevant Knowledge
  • •SIW - Crawler toolbar
  • •Skype - Google toolbar
  • •Spider Player - Bing toolbar
  • •Spyware Terminator - Web Security Guard
  • •SUMo - Facemoods, Autocomplete Pro
  • •SUPER - OpenCandy
  • •Sweet Home 3D - Open Candy
  • •Trillian - Ask toolbar
  • •Tweak Me! - Nitro PDF Reader
  • •Unlocker - Bing toolbar
  • •USB Guardian - BestSecurityTips toolbar
  • •µTorrent - Bing toolbar
  • •Vista Codec Package - Bing toolbar
  • •WebShot - OpenCandy
  • •Win7codecs - Bing toolbar
  • •Winamp - Winamp toolbar
  • •Windows 7 Codec Pack - Dealio toolbar
  • •Windows Essentials Codec Pack - Babylon toolbar
  • •WinSCP - OpenCandy
  • •XP Smoker - Bing toolbar
So what is the problem with this and why did Lenovo allow this to happen? After all, it potentially violates the "Defense in Depth" strategy for protecting computer systems (shown in the above diagram – courtesy of Microsoft).

The problem with it is twofold. To examine the first problem we need to look at the five stages of a cyberattack. According to an article entitled "Understanding What Happens in A Cyberattack," Processor magazine, February 6, 2015:
"Although no attacker sits down and thinks "now I'm in phase one," says Daniel Kennedy, research director at 4551 Research, there are general phases or steps of attack that explain how a cybercriminal penetrates a system. The first step includes "reconnaissance, learning about the target system, [and identifying] potential targets for social engineering." In step two, attackers scan, determine, or probe the system for vulnerabilities. Step three involves gaining access via one or more of those vulnerabilities. Step four is about maintaining access, which can involve "closing the initial vulnerability used and installing a backdoor, or pivoting off of an initially gained access to further gain access to more sensitive downstream systems." Step five focuses on destroying evidence of the intrusion and covering tracks."
Mr. Kennedy notes that "some common methods of attack include exploiting weakness via web applications, administrative systems, brute forcing credentials, phishing for access credentials, malware, RAM scrapers, key loggers and root kits." Threats may be internally or externally instigated. While internal threats are typically the most effective and the most difficult to detect, external threats are becoming increasingly sophisticated.

According to James Bickley, director of disputes and investigations, Navigant Consulting (Processor magazine, February 6, 2015), "a cybercriminal "might leave multiple pieces of malware in an enterprise once access is obtained and have some of it remain dormant to fool the enterprise into believing the network is secure."
"Attackers may also leave behind a 'toolkit,' Bickley says, 'to actually write malware inside the enterprise.' This is particularly difficult to locate he adds, because it didn't exist to be detected prior to breaching the system."
So what does this have to do with the recent Lenovo Superfish incident? There are two problems with this incident.

The first problem is that Superfish creates a "potential security hole." This program reaches outside the network conveying information about the user to the web. While this might or might not be directly exploitable by a cybercriminal, the hole is still there.

The second problem is more insidious. It turns out that the Root Certificates for the Superfish program were written by a firm named Komodia.
"Barak Weichselbaum founded Komodia, Inc. in 2000, following his military service as a programmer in the IDF's Intelligence Core. A custom solution provider to customers worldwide, Komodia first released its open source TCP/IP library in 2001. Through numerous projects in the past ten years, the company has found a niche in multiple areas of programming with one common theme: scarce documentation and a lack of experts. Today the company is focused on marketing its flagship product:"
Some interesting facts about Komodia include:
"Komodia's Redirector allows you to change TCP/IP network sessions with a few simple clicks. The platform intercepts traffic on the local machine based on rules that you define, and it includes many built in functions that you can use without writing a single line of code (if you need a solution that only sniffs the network traffic without modifying it, visit Komodia' s Interceptor web page)."
These root certificates are defined as:
"In cryptography and computer security, a root certificate is an unsigned public key certificate, or a self-signed certificate, and is part of a public key infrastructure scheme. The most common commercial variety is based on the ISO X.509 standard. Normally an X.509 certificate includes a digital signature from a certificate authority (CA) which vouches for correctness of the data contained in a certificate."
"Root certificates are implicitly trusted. They are included with many software applications. The best known is Web browsers; they are used for SSL / TLS secure connections. However this implies that you trust your browser's publisher to include correct root certificates, and in turn the certificate authorities it trusts, and anyone to whom the CA may have issued a certificate-issuing-certificate, to faithfully authenticate the users of all their certificates. This (transitive) trust in a root certificate is merely assumed in the usual case, there being no way in practice to better ground it, but is integral to the X.509 certificate chain model." – [source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certificate_authority]
The following information presented on ArsTechnica website presents a good idea of the depth of the problem (From: http://arstechnica.com/security/2015/02/ssl-busting-code-that-threatened-lenovo-users-found-in-a-dozen-more-apps/).

SSL-busting code that threatened Lenovo users found in a dozen more apps
"What all these applications have in common is that they make people less secure."
A browser's root certificate helps encode communications back and forth with a secure web site, such as a bank or email service, so that messages can't be read by anyone else. The problem was that the replacement certificate from Superfish could be easily cracked by hackers, who could then pose as the secure web site and steal a user's passwords or other sensitive data.
A security researcher who goes by the Twitter handle @TheWack0lian said an additional piece of software known as SecureTeen also installed Komodia-enabled certificates. Over the weekend, the researcher also published findings documenting rootkit technology in Komodia code that allows it to remain hidden from key operating system functions.
Web searches for many of these titles uncover forum posts in which computer users complain that some of these applications are hard to remove once they're installed. Richard noted that he was unable to find documentation from any of the publishers explaining what effect Komodia software had on end-user PCs such as its ability to sniff passwords and other sensitive data from encrypted Web sessions.
The vulnerability was considered so serious that the Homeland Security Department's Computer Emergency Readiness Team issued an alert, as well, with additional advice for detecting and removing Superfish. Microsoft (MSFT) also got into the act and added Superfish removal to its Windows Defender antivirus app.
Over the weekend, researchers at Facebook (FB) reviewed data from the millions of browsers that contact the company's web site and found similarly weakened root certificates installed by other apps, not just Superfish. The culprits were a mixed bag of games, adware and other apps of unknown purpose. Eventually, antivirus programs should be updated to eliminate these weakened root certificates and restore browsers' proper certificates.
When the world's number one computer manufacturer and distributor sells computers with built-in security holes, this potentially bypasses step one and potentially step two of the cyberattack process. Cybercriminals can immediately work on gaining access to via identified vulnerabilities.

Of the 315 million computers sold worldwide in 2014 (Source: wikopedia.com), Lenovo sold about 18%. This would amount to about 50 million for the year and an estimated 10 million during this period (Q4). While not all of the Lenovo line of computers included this potentially harmful software, enough did to create a stir among the security and computer blogs that I follow.
"Consolidated sales for Lenovo's laptop PC business worldwide in the fourth fiscal quarter increased 16 percent year-over-year to US$4.8 billion, accounting for 51 percent of the Company's overall sales. During the same period, Lenovo's worldwide laptop PC shipments increased 12.9 percent, against the backdrop of an overall industry decrease of 5.8 percent." Source: http://news.lenovo.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=1795
I have three Lenovo laptop computers, all of which are used in our network. They work very well and none of them have presented any problem. I must say that I am dismayed at this action by a company that makes such a fine product.

Now that you understand some of the problems with "adware", the number of computers impacted as well as having an idea about the methodology of cyberattacks, we can explore the implications on our global society. As noted before, one of the basic principles of computer and network security is defense-in-depth. One of the immediate global implications is the potential security hole threatens not just the computer with the adware, but possibly any computer connected to it.

There is clearly a fight for global growth and increasing sales revenue in an exceedingly competitive technology market. All of the major computer manufacturers, such as Dell, Apple and Lenovo, are locked into a struggle to increase market share. Profits per computer sold are falling significantly due to extreme competition between chip and other component manufacturers.

It is for that reason, companies like Lenovo might, and apparently did, consider installing such software. They reportedly increased their revenue by a few dollars per machine, paid by the software developer, for the installation. Needless to say, the software developer was able to get its software in front of a large number of computer users (even if it was undetectable), for which advertisers probably paid large fees. While, as noted earlier, this "adware" or "bloat ware" is common in the industry, users don't particularly like it. It tends to slow computers down and is commonly accepted as the price to pay for "inexpensive computers."

This case, however, pointed out the extreme vulnerability with this model. If it had only been the adware, Lenovo might have had a few disgruntled customers. However, because of Komadia's involvement, the problem became far more sinister. As noted earlier, Komadia's use of easily hackable passwords for their certificates for the Superfish adware opened up a large security hole in the system. It also demonstrated the vulnerability of using external code, over which you may have no control or even knowledge of the depth of the potential problem. What Lenovo thought would be an innocuous piece of software, for which it could increase its bottom line, clearly backfired.

It seems that the needs of the top executives, board of directors and shareholders trumped the needs of the customers. This seems to be occurring more and more in a world dominated by "mega" corporations such as Lenovo, Verizon, ATT and Apple. It seems that there has been a change in the way business is conducted. Business ethics have been corrupted by corporate and political greed on a massive scale.

My EPub "World Collapse or New Eden" presents a look at some of the changes in business ethics from 2008 to today. There was a time when the majority of businesses could balance these aspects of commerce in a reasonable manner. Certainly, some large corporations are better than others on the scale of ethics. However, in my opinion, the majority of them are in lock step with our political system and are sliding seriously toward the negative end of the spectrum. This does not bode well for the global economy.

Technology presents great hope for a bright future. New advances in technology will advance medicine, communications, resource development, food production and the exploration of space to name a few. My EPub EROS, Journey to an Asteroid
shows the promise of technology and what can be accomplished with technology.


However, these advances in technology have to be coupled with wisdom, vision and ethics [i.e. morality]. I remember the small town shopkeepers of my Dad's and granddads generation. While they wanted to make a "profit" and a "good living", they were also part of a community. These "mom and pop" stores valued the "sale" but they valued their customers and the relationship they had with them even more. Their business was less of a revenue generation model and more of a service model. Unless we get back to the service approach to business and business ethics, the promise of technology will be available and affordable only to those who have the resources [i.e. the "top 1%"].

Sincerely,

H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Facebook: HCourtYoung
Phone: 303-726-8320

Email: tmcco@msn.com

Twitter: http://twitter.com/hcourtyoung


Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Unprecedented Drought Risk and Climate Change

 

 

You hear a lot about the subject of “climate change” today. The issue, in my opinion, seems to center around “the right to make money or have a job” i.e. greed (use as much as “I” need), rather than taking the responsibility to act as a good steward, i.e. a longer term view of what is good for my neighbor, and the world as a whole.

As the debate rages, our “leaders”, especially in the United States Congress seem to act in a more and more irrational, short term manner regardless of whether they have an “R” or “D” behind their name. For example, one of the current issues being pursued by Congressional Republican Rohrabacher (R-CA), a senior member of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, is whether NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are “tampering with temperature data to create an artificial warming trend. Such data is then used to justify regulations aimed at curbing fossil fuel use and other industrial activities” (http://dailycaller.com/2015/02/20/republicans-to-investigate-climate-data-tampering-by-nasa/).

So, what does this have to do with the topic of unprecedented drought risk? I am glad you asked.

Most people, including “the experts” in the “climate change” debate on either side stop short of paying anything but lip service to the issue of water resources and short term water use. Water seems to be an afterthought. The attitude appears to be, “it has always been there (at our faucet or in our toilet) and it always will be there.” Having water in the developed world has effectively become “a right.”

Nothing could be further from the truth. Much of my life has been spent with the private development of water resources and water rights in the western United States both for private and public system consumption. Using and providing clean drinkable water in an arid and semi-arid part of the North American continent (or any other water challenged region) is very technical and complex because of the challenge of distributing a scarce resource to an increasing population.

Two articles come to mind when the subject of drought is mentioned to me. One is an article from 2009 which discusses a tree ring study (dendrochronology) done by Colorado State University. This article, in the Denver Post, entitled “Current Drought is a Wimp.” The second is a recent article and referenced paper on the internet entitled “Unprecedented 21st Century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains,” B. I. Cook, T. R. Ault, J. E. Smerdon, Sci. Adv. 1, e1400082 (2015).

Based on these articles and the research behind them, the following quotations give a good synopsis of what the water supply future for the western United States portends. What we consider as “normal” over the last 40 years may have been an aberration.

Dr. Neil Grigg, Professor of civil and environmental engineering, Colorado State University notes:

“Tree-ring studies and climatic data show that Colorado experiences wet and dry cycles. The great Colorado drought of 1276-1299 apparently drove the Anasazis from their homes in southwestern Colorado. Eight periods of severe and long- lasting drought have occurred since about 1700. The period from 1875 to about 1890 seen1s to have been very dry. The 1890- 94 drought in Eastern Colorado brought disappointment to newly- arrived dryland farmers, as described by author James Michener in Centennial. The 1898-1904 drought was the worst on record in Durango. The 1900- 1930 period was wetter- than- average. Drought returned from 1930 to 1940, and in 1939, several Front Range gages recorded their driest single year in history. West Slope droughts seen1 to coincide with those on the East Slope more often than not, but not always. The 1950- 1956 drought affected the whole state, and was worse in general along the Front Range than the 1930s drought. The 1974-1978 drought featured the driest winter in history, in 1976- 1977 (McKee, Doesken, Kleist, Shrier, and Stanton, 2000; Woodhouse, 2002).” - Drought and Water Policy: Implications for Colorado, Neil S Grigg, Hydrology Days 2003

The second study entitled “Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America", published on 29th July, 2012 in Nature Geoscience notes:

“North American 2000-2004 drought worst in 800 years”

“A new scientific study indicates the 2000-2004 drought in the North American West was the worst of the last millennium, with major impacts to the carbon cycle, and hints of even drier times ahead.

The study, titled “Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America", published on 29th July in Nature Geoscience, shows that the major drought that struck western North America from 2000 to 2004 severely reduced carbon uptake and stressed the region's water resources, with significant declines in river flows and crop yields.

The research group determined that carbon taken up by Western forests dropped by 30 million to 298 million metric tons per year. In normal conditions the forests would take up between 177 million and 623 million metric tons of carbon.

Researchers found that the four-year drought was the most severe region-wide event of its kind since the last mega drought 800 years ago.

“The 2000-2004 drought may be the wetter end of a new climatology that would make the 21st century climate like mega-droughts of the last millennium,” said Christopher Schwalm, the research leader from Northern Arizona.” 30 July 2012, TerraNature Trust, http://www.terranature.org/2000-2004NorthAmericanDrought.htm

If the paleo climactic data is correct, and the current droughts are truly “wimps” compared to the norm, what does that mean to us? It means that we, as water consumers, can no longer afford to remain “ignorant” of water issues. We must start impressing on our “leaders”, especially those in charge of our water supply systems, to face the issues and challenges. They need to come up with long term solutions, on a regional or even continent wide scale, not just “feel good”, “reward the large public/private users because of their money and influence” type policies of the past.

Clearly, if our current water supply systems are designed to survive a five, or even, ten year drought, and the coming drought is a thirty or fifty year drought, we are not prepared. A significant number of us living through those circumstances would probably be very thirsty.

We cannot allow the “experts” to continue to dictate water policy without getting involved. I have seen this first hand while being involved with a small water district west of Denver, Colorado for many years. More and more the District Board of Directors (of which I was one) are getting their consumers involved through education and out-reach. While this takes time and effort, it is worth it because the District Board gains support and effective input for the direction the District is going to upgrade the water supply system and develop policies for the future. The consumers understand why certain actions are necessary and they act as “eyes” and “ears” watching over the water infrastructure by which they derive their most precious resource – clean, potable water.

In 2003, I wrote a book entitled Understanding Water Rights and Conflicts, Second Edition. This book, published by BurgYoung Publishing, gives an overview of the physical use, legal availability and multiple use of water in the western United States (a typical arid to semi-arid environment). Available now in EPub (digital) format, it presents information critical to becoming an informed water consumer, as the main stream media is increasingly trumpeting the “party-line” with respect to water issues. This “party-line” is more and more reflected in policies and directions which benefit the very wealthy private and public corporations, including residential developers, agricultural interests, and most recently energy developers (i.e. fracking).

These large entities, and large water consumers, do create jobs, produce homes, food and energy, all of which we need. However, how does the average water consumer weight the cost of those jobs, food and energy against their way of life and their children’s future without some understanding of the issues and consequences? Because the issues are complex, education and knowledge are the only way to get an idea of what current policies may lead to in the future.

Another book, available in EPub (digital) format is World Collapse or New Eden, Your World in 2011 -101 Expert Predictions about Your World and What the Trends Are – 2015 Edition. In this book, I explore a number of issues including water, drought and energy. Written to explore how major global issues between 2006 and 2008 were predicted to impact your world in 2011, I updated it with a follow-up as of 2015. It is a fascinating view of where we thought we would be, where we were in 2011 and where we are today with respect to the original issues. As you might expect, we have not made much progress, in my opinion.

As someone involved in water and water issues for the last thirty years, and as a geologist, I have followed the climate debate for many years. First, I must point out that the climate and weather patterns are not static. They have been changing for millions of years due to a dynamic Earth in an ever changing Universe. I find the debate whether humans are the prime cause of “climate change” based on the last 10,000 years of record to be absurd, when the geologic record is billions of years old. That being said, I do hold humans primarily responsible for “climate change” based on their short sighted, greedy, “me first” approach to policy making and goal setting. If this were not the case, there would be a long term plan (10 to 20 years) for energy development and use on a national, if not global, scale, which would involve all forms including conservation,  renewables, nuclear, oil and gas.

Effectively we have let “greed” and “complacency” overrule our ability and responsibility to be good stewards, both with “climate issues” and with “water issues.” It is a real probability that both climate change and drought will force an unprecedented change to our way of life, our future and that of our children and grandchildren.

Sincerely,

H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Facebook: HCourtYoung
Phone: 303-726-8320

Email: tmcco@msn.com

Twitter: http://twitter.com/hcourtyoung

Water is our most precious resource - Understand why/how to protect & preserve it – Understanding Water Rights and Conflicts, Second Edition

Thursday, February 12, 2015

How Many More Things will Come Back to Impact Us and Future Generations?

 

A headline in the February 2, 2015 issue of Processor Magazine made me wonder how many more things we have done due to lack of thought, planning or absolute greed will come back to impact this generation and future generations. When is enough, enough?

The headline, “Oil from Deepwater Horizon spill found in Gulf of Mexico sediment,” brought back memories of almost six months of continuous news coverage from April 20, 2010 into December 2010. People around the globe were glued to their television screens during this drama, and it’s not over yet.

This article described the results form a new study led by Professor of Oceanography Jeff Chanton of Florida State University. According to the study:

“Some of the oil released in the Deepwater Horizon disaster was not cleaned up, but settled on the floor of the Gulf of Mexico.”

In addition:

“Some 6 million to 10 million gallons are buried in the sediment on the floor of the Gulf, about 62 miles southeast of the Mississippi Delta.

In total, more than 200 million gallons of crude oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico in April 2010 when the Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded. The accident killed 11 people and caused exte4nsive damage to marine and wildlife habitats in the region.

The U.S. government and BP cleanup crews were unable to locate all of the spilled oil. But now, almost five years later, natural abundance radiocarbon measurements on surface sediment organic matter have shown where oil is distributed on the ocean floor.

Chanton noted that in the short term, the oil sinking to the sea floor might have seemed like a good thing because the water was clarified, and the oil was removed from the water. But it’s a problem in the longer term.

Less oxygen exists on the sea floor relative to the water column, so the oiled particles are more likely to become hypoxic [hypoxic is oxygen deficient - dead zones low-in oxygen, Sea water that is both deep and still, such as at the bottoms of some fjords, tends to be hypoxic or anoxic.]. That means it’s more difficult for bacteria to attack the oil and cause it to decompose.

If the sediment is stirred up in the future, the oil could enter the water again. And the contaminatio9n will also enter the food chain, because the worms ingest the sediment and fish eat the worms.”

The Chanton study and its findings have been published in the latest edition of the Journal Environmental Science and Technology.

Events such as the Deepwater Horizon Oil spill, Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster, and the Fukushima Reactor meltdown all will have long term impacts on our world. What these environmental impacts will be we are not sure. However, it seems logical that we should work to prevent these impacts before they happen rather than after.

But, you say, in the case of Fukushima, no one could have predicted the earthquake and Tsunami. While that is true, the nuclear plants could have been designed, engineered and built with the maximum event in mind. Yes, it would have cost a bit more in both time and money initially, but Japan and the world might not be faced with a very uncertain future due to this crisis today. It seems that these reactors and others have been rushed into operation based on immediate profit rather than long term efficiency and safety. Where was the long term energy policy looking at all forms of energy, not just the forms which would produce the most profit for the few?

It seems clear that these and many other events/disasters throughout our industrial development could have been avoided or at least mitigated by a bit more thought, study and long term planning.

For example, I noted that a prediction in The Bible Code, Michael Drosnin, April 1998 stated:

“The Bible Code predicts a Mt. Rainier eruption in 2010-2011.”

While this has not happened, the USGS notes:

“U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research shows that Mount Rainier is one of our nation’s most dangerous volcanos. It has been the source of countless eruptions and volcanic mudflows (lahars) that have surged down valleys on its flanks and buried broad areas now densely populated.”

Some mitigation effort and emergency plans have been developed with the aid of the USGS and other state and local agencies but will they be enough?

Another prediction which could have significant impact on our global society was noted in September 2006 by Jeff Hecht on New Scientist Tech News Service.

“Navigation, power and communications systems rely on GPS satellite navigation will be disrupted by violent solar activity in 2011, research shows.”

However, again,  it seems that we “dodged a bullet” based on 2015 comments:

“The sun’s current space-weather cycle is the most anemic in 100 years, scientists say.”

The fix to shield many of our electrical equipment, computers, satellites and electrical grid is apparently not extremely difficult or even costly. It just takes the will to study, plan and implement the solution. So how have we spent the last 8 years with regard to this challenge? Because of “cost” and “lack of resources” very little has apparently been done to mitigate this major threat to our way of life. Private and public utilities are seemingly unwilling to cut into “profits” and do what is best long term for the country and global community.

This challenge from space really goes to the core of the problem as it’s not like we have not had time to work on the solution. A major solar flare happened in 1859, which burned out telegraph wires. We have been studying the problem since the early 20th century.

The solar flare challenge is similar to the Chernobyl Reactor meltdown (April 1986),  the Deepwater Horizon spill (April 2010), the Fukushima Reactor meltdown (March 2011) and numerous other threats we face. These threats which happened in the past, as well as, on-going and future threats to our physical infrastructure are not our only long term challenges. Other major threats include such financial system concerns as credit default swaps, unlimited credit creation and bond/currency manipulation.

As I noted previously,  numerous predictions detailed in my EPub entitled World Collapse or New Eden, Your World in 2011, 2015 Edition, from the period 2008 to 2011 are still important and looming in today’s world. For example,  It was thought that OPEC would have more than 30 percent of the market share of the global oil market by 2011. However, my 2015 comment notes “OPEC’s oil market share is set to be 5 percent or smaller by 2018 as supply of U.S. shale oil grows faster than previously thought.” This is one of the primary reasons for the drop in oil prices today, which is a way to eliminate the competition and restore market share.

Our “leaders,” heads of governments, CEOs of international corporations and many of the top 1% (elites) are too busy amassing wealth and gobbling up resources to really be concerned with such challenges. It was recently noted in several article on the internet that in 2015 it is estimated the top 1% own approximately 50% of global resources/wealth.

The “general public,” on the other hand, is too busy making a living and being entertained to really study and understand the issues. They settle for candidates, elected officials and rulers selected, approved and financed by the top 1%. As we are finding out in the United States, whether there is an “R” or “D” behind the name makes very little if any difference in the long term. This makes for the perfect storm.

In the unrelenting quest for money and profit, how many more of these “disasters” will we allow? How many more can we allow? How will these and future disasters impact us, and future generations? What will the long term impacts be? Why are so few asking for answers to these questions of those in control, be they corporate CEOs, presidents or legislators?

We, as humans, seem to continue to pursue the “latest and most urgent profit making tasks” without regard to (or just plain ignoring/disregarding) the long term impacts. We refuse to create long term discernable goals whether in the usage of water, energy, minerals or in the production of millions of products which make up our modern life.

As noted previously, many of the above challenges can and could have been mitigated. It starts with a committed educated “general public” to select and put into positions of power individuals who will take a longer term view-point. This will only be effective if these individuals put aside their own short term welfare for a longer term “what is best” for the planet and its inhabitant’s point of view. For example, it is no coincidence that the 535 members of the United States Congress are among the wealthiest Americans and as a body can get very little done on these or any other issues.

Having both an enlightened general public and leadership that puts the global interest above their own self-interest may be the only way we, as a global community, will be able to confront and answer the question “how many more things will come back to impact us and future generations.”

H. Court Young

Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Twitter: waterauthor
Facebook: HCourtYoung

Saturday, January 31, 2015

Windows 10 and the Internet of Things

With the introduction of Microsoft Windows 10, use of the internet is about to change in a big way. We, as consumers, will all see the changes in very subtle ways over the next year or so, while behind the scenes things are making a huge leap forward.

As I finish loading Microsoft's newest operating system, Windows 10, onto my two surface pro tablet computers, I think back to my discussion of big data just one year ago. The world of desktop computers, tablets and phones is about to collide. While this has been happening with both Apple and Android based products for several years, it is Microsoft and the Windows environment which will make the most impact. The following operating systems were being used on desktop, laptop and netbook computers (by percentage):

Microsoft Windows

Apple

Android

91.5%

7.25%

1.34%

From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems  - Dec.2014

Only in the smartphone, mobile, tablet and handheld category does Android have a dominant (54%) share. This is significant because the majority of businesses use desktop, laptop and netbook systems, while the majority of consumers use smartphones, mobiles, tablets and handhelds. The majority of data is still be generated by and for business use on business computers and networks.

A recent article entitled "How the internet of things will impact data centers", Processor magazine, December 26, 2014, discusses the impact of all the new connected devices coming into our global society. The need for data centers (commonly known and referred to as “the cloud”) is expanding at a very rapid rate. These data centers are huge facilities housing thousands of computers known as servers. According to a Processor.com article (December 26, 2014) entitled “Worldwide Data Center Space Continues to Increase,” by 2017, there will be 8.6 million data centers worldwide, totaling about 1.94 billion square feet. As this article further notes, “data center and server rooms/closets are no longer simply places to house IT assets. Instead, they are now referred to and have become the primary point of engagement and information exchange for employees, partners and customers.”

In my blog article entitled “Big Data and CES 2014”, I noted the following statistics in relationship to data storage:

  • 1 Gigabyte is equivalent to about seven minutes of high-definition video and two gigabytes is equivalent to about 20 yards of books on a shelf.
  • 1 Exabyte is equivalent to about 250 million DVDs and five exabytes would just about cover a transcript of every word spoken in human history.
  • 1 Petabyte is equal to 20 million four-drawer filing cabinets filled with text or 13.3 years of high-definition video.

Gartner defines the internet of things as "the network of physical objects that contain embedded technology to communicate and sense of interact with their internal states or the external environment" (Processor.com, How the internet of things will impact data centers).

These include everything from computers and related components to readers, pacemakers and other related medical devices. As i noted in my article about CES 2014, this will include your stove, refrigerator and crockpot in the next few years. According to the article, one source notes that there could be as many as 20 billion objects connected to the internet of things (IoT) by 2020.

New devices coming to the market place include appliances, home lighting, heating and thermostats, cooking utensils and even automobiles. A January 23, 2015 article in Processor.com entitled “Ready or Not, the Internet of Things Has Arrived,” notes the following statistics (from Gartner – in billions):
 

Category

2013

2014

2015

2020

Automotive

96.00

189.60

372.30

3511.10

Consume

1842.10

2244.50

2874.90

13172.50

Generic Business

395.20

479.40

623.90

5158.60

Vertical Business

698.70

836.50

1009.40

3164.40

Grand Total

3032.00

3750.00

4880.60

25006.60

These devices represent a huge amount of data going to and from “the cloud.” As tablet computers, cell phones and other “smart devices” continue to proliferate this data stream is just going to continue to increase exponentially. While many of these devices use the Apple or Android operating system, the data they generate is stored and analyzed by programs from Microsoft and Oracle.

It is no wonder that our world today is getting away from the “server in the closet” model where every business had a server down the hall. This computer kept all the critical business data and files. These servers were connected to other machines throughout the building using cable. There is no way this model could work with the massive amount of data being generated today.

As I think back to my EROS, Journey to an Asteroid EPub, I marvel at the amount of data NASA/JPL got back from a small spacecraft with a very limited amount of computing power. This mission ended in 2002 and the hi-resolution photos are just stunning. If our “limited” technology of 12 years ago was able to accomplish so much, think how much more we will be able to accomplish as technology advances.

Microsoft is developing its new Windows 10 operating system, in my opinion, to enable the massive proliferation of data to be accessible, in a meaningful way on a large variety of different devices. Clearly with the proliferation of tablets, smart phones and other hand held devices, Microsoft needed an operating system keyed to these devices. Windows 10 works as well on my Surface computer in desktop mode as it does in tablet mode. It also is enabled as well for the “cloud” as it is for storing and accessing data on your local computer hard drive, regardless of the device.

In addition, Microsoft is one of the major players in the development and operation of data centers worldwide. This “cloud” data model is the standard for today’s technology. It is the only way the Internet of Things can work and expand.

In my EPub entitled, World Collapse or New Eden, 2015 Ed, 101 expert predictions about your world & what the trends are today I explore these trends based on a comparison of what the world looked like in 2008, 2011 and 2015.

The Internet of Things is about to explode and, in my opinion, Microsoft is still on the cutting edge.

H. Court Young

Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Facebook: HCourtYoung

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Is 2015 the year of World Collapse or will it be a New Eden?

 

There is not a day which goes by that we don’t hear about some economic, political or environmental crisis around the globe. Ebola, ISIS and the drought in California are but a few that raged in 2014.

In 2008, a friend of mine and I had the following discussion over a cup of tea at the local bookstore. Does the discussion sound familiar?

clip_image002Does it seem as if life is going to hell in a hand-basket? You are not alone. Many people today feel the same way. The news is bad and just seems to get worse all of the time.

Is all of this mere coincidence or is this all a part of the cosmic plan? This is the question Court and I have been asking over the last year. Why is it that people from every walk of life and many different disciplines and viewpoints are all predicting catastrophe sometime within the period of 2010 to 2012?

This 2008 discussion was in reference to the year 2011. As you may remember, there were many predictions of calamity and collapse on a global scale centering on 2011.

It was for that reason I wrote my book World Collapse or New Eden, Your World in 2011. This book included 101 expert (and not so expert) predictions from the years between 2008 and 2011. At that time, it seemed like 2011 was the year the world as we knew it was going to collapse into chaos.

Jumping to 2015, does it seem that things are worse than they were 4 years ago (to paraphrase a presidential campaign slogan)? While the stock market is at all an all-time high, our financial markets are in a mess. Global economies are limping along. In the background, environmental disasters like the reactor meltdown at Fukishima Japan because of the 9.0 earthquake and Tsunami in March, 2011 are still very problematic.

You are intelligent enough to realize that our world is in a period of dramatic change. The price of a barrel of oil fluctuates wildly from above $100 down to $40. Food and energy prices are soaring. Medical breakthroughs occur almost daily. Currency, bond and stock markets fluctuate hourly. Around the world it is estimated that 1 billion people have access to the internet making communication truly global.

In my research, I discovered many predictions involving the period 2010 to 2012. I was astonished that so many predictions seemed to center on 2011. I started to call this time period, “the great convergence”. These predictions came from experts in many fields of study including, but not limited to energy, finance, business, science, education, travel and economics. Four years after 2011, are these predictions still “on-track”? What was predicted and what has taken place?

As you probably know, predictions come from many sources. Some are from very dubious sources which make very sensational news stories. However, the majority of the predictions come from very serious experts willing to put their reputations on the line by putting them in print. What does all this mean for you?

My original book, entitled World Collapse or New Eden? Your World in 2011, provided an insightful look at a future that was imminent in 2008. With the 2015 edition, you will learn how things have changed since then. Included are all of the original 2011 predictions and comments, as well as, my updated 2015 comments for each. Subjects which impact your life such as energy, the environment, climate change, natural disasters, finance, business and politics. You will find out if these predictions are still “on-track” and hopefully discern trends that could impact your life going forward.

This digital eBook/EPub presents each prediction, source and author and many active web links. It presents a fascinating look at the not too distant past and the future going forward.

I hope you enjoy reading the research and analysis in the 2015 Edition as much as I did finding it. Spot trends, and get a sense of where the world is going from sources other than the "mainstream media". To get your digital copy visit: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00RSNCDW0

H. Court Young

Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Facebook: HCourtYoung

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Blogging and Promoting Awareness through the Written Word

By H. Court Young

Many people are not into writing, or blogging. However, in my opinion, writing and blogging are two of the most enjoyable and creative activities on the Internet. Blogging is a way of expression which gets your ideas out to the world, much like writing articles and books. Blogging, unlike writing articles and books, takes less time and can be much more free-form. It forms the basis for many of the social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter.

I love to write and publish books, because I want to promote awareness through the written word. It is also my reason for blogging and being on social media sites (Facebook and Twitter).

I wrote and published my e-book “The Art of Writing an e-Book, How to Enrich Yourself and Others” to help others write and publish books and e-Books. This e-Book (EPub) gives readers a number of tools to help them get ideas, increase their productivity and enhance their creativity. The information presented in this e-book are time-tested and used by some of the best authors in the field today.

Writing is one of the ways in which humans present ideas to each other. It is, in my opinion, one of the reasons that human societies are possible. The recording of ideas, thoughts, opinions, emotions, and observations of the world around us have allowed the history of human civilization to be passed down from generation to generation. Most of the scientific discoveries and technological advances of our modern society have been based on ideas and observations recorded by past generations.

For example, one of the oldest books available today is the Bible. It is thought that many of the written stories were originally passed down by the spoken language. However, the circulation increased exponentially when mass printing became available. The ability to read and knowledge also increased exponentially after the advent of the printing press.

“Two factors operated to accelerate the spread of Renaissance culture after 1450: growing economic prosperity and the printing press. Prosperity -- the result of peace and the decline of famine and the plague -- led to the founding of schools and colleges. In these schools the sons of gentlemen and nobles would receive a humanistic education imported from Italy. The purpose of such an education was to prepare men for a career in the church or civil service.” - http://www.historyguide.org/intellect/press.html

In today’s world, knowledge increases on an ever smaller time frame. This idea was presented by Ray Kurzweil as follows.

“In his 1999 book The Age of Spiritual Machines Kurzweil proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.[7 “- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change

So what does this mean to you? There is an ever increasing bank of knowledge about many subjects which you can discover, research, explore and think about. But if you don’t make use of this knowledge, what good is it? Part of the human endeavor is to convey ideas, express opinions, pass on observations and ultimately to form relationships with others.

The tools presented in “The Art of Writing an e-Book” are just as useful for blogging as they are for writing articles and books. They will stimulate your thought process and help you organize and present your ideas in a meaningful way.

It is these relationships which make life worth living. Because you are a unique creation, your ideas, perceptions, observations and life experiences are also unique. If you keep them locked up inside your mind, you deny the world a very special, one of a kind view of human existence. Sharing with friends in discussions is great, but sharing with the world at large is even better. This is a great way to increase your relationships and touch the lives of people you will never meet.

This is the power of the written word. So, I encourage you to start blogging and making your ideas, experiences and thoughts available to a worldwide audience.

H. Court Young
December 10, 2014