As another Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2017) ended during the first week in January 2017, two different views of the fast approaching “autonomous car” infrastructure came to light. Based on these two views, I believe we as a global society are at a crossroads with respect to this new and exciting technology. I label this crossroads the Google – Apple inflection point. Hence, the title of this blog is “A Google – Apple World?”.
An article about emerging technology presented at CES 2017 illustrates this inflection point. The article is entitled “Microsoft’s Connected Vehicle Platform is a more far-reaching approach than either Apple’s or Google’s” by Kareem Anderson presented On_MSFT.com.
As an introduction to why we may be at an inflection point, I need to give a little background about the Consumer Electronics Show. This show is the largest consumer electronics show in the world. It has been held in January of each year since 2005. The following information is posted on the CES Tech website:
“CES 2016 was a record-breaking year. A total attendance of 177,393 gathered from across the globe to experience technology innovation spanning 2.47 million net square feet of exhibit space.
That's why CES is the world's gathering place for all who thrive on the business of consumer technology. No other event gives your company this depth of exposure and reach, because there's no other event experience like CES.”
Several people have noted that CES 2017 had attendance of about 150,000 but I could not verify the figures at the time of this blog. Per Wikipedia, the first CES was held in 1967.
The first CES was held in June 1967 in New York City. It was a spinoff from the Chicago Music Show, which until then had served as the main event for exhibiting consumer electronics. The event had 17,500 attendees and over 100 exhibitors; the kickoff speaker was Motorola chairman Bob Galvin.[2] From 1978 to 1994, CES was held twice each year: once in January in Las Vegas known as Winter Consumer Electronics Show (WCES) and once in June in Chicago, known as Summer Consumer Electronics Show (SCES).”
CES started and is known as a show where “start-ups” and smaller companies can present their new ideas to the public. It presents a less expensive forum where these companies and innovators can network directly with manufacturers, dealers, distributors and the public before going into full production with their products. It gives these “start-ups” an idea of what the “market” may be for their idea prior to the large investment of production, distribution and full scale marketing.
“The International CES (Consumer Electronics Show®) is the world's gathering place for all who thrive on the business of consumer technologies.
It's where business gets done: on the show floor, in and around our conference program, in impromptu connections and in planned meetings and special events.”
However, many of the largest technology innovators in the world also showcase their ideas, including Samsung, Sony, Google, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft. In addition, the major computer manufacturers such as Dell, HP, Samsung and Apple are also vying for media attention. For example, in the last few years, it has become a show which major automobile manufacturers have showcased new technology and concepts. Exhibitors include Toyota, Ford, BMW, Renault, Nissan, Honda and others. These large exhibitors often eclipse the smaller companies for both media coverage and interest. These “mega” corporations receive very valuable feedback regarding their new ideas and innovations just as the smaller start-up do.
Now that you understand a bit about the show, its premise and its venue, I will get back to my initial question – “A Google – Apple World?”. What does this mean? Are we at an “inflection” point and if so, what is it?
One of the newest technologies on the horizon is the “self-driving automobile.” This concept has been around (in science-fiction) for my lifetime and beyond. One representative example, in my lifetime, was the cartoon series entitled “the Jetsons.” My Dad and I used to watch it weekly when it was introduced on “prime time” television. He loved the show, as did I. The society of the Jetsons had robots and flying, “self-driving” cars.
The same idea was presented in one on my favorite movie trilogies, Back to the Future. The DeLorean time-machine was classic science-fiction in a real world setting.
Thirty to fifty years later, technology is finally catching up with the concepts presented in the Jetsons and Back to the Future. While we may wait a few years for flying cars, we do have technology which is beginning to make “self-driving” or “autonomous cars” a reality. Several traditional automobile manufacturers, such as Ford, Toyota and General Motors, are testing these cars today. Almost all auto manufacturers at least have this technology on the drawing board or in the planning stages.
However, the mega “technology” companies, such as Google, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft, are also in this “self-driving” automobile race as well. These self-driving cars are as dependent on technology equipment, wiring, computer chips and software programming as they are on machine parts, gears and engine blocks. To give an example, note the following.
Cars are being included in the IoT (internet of things), just like refrigerators, dishwashers and industrial system controllers. According to a November 2016 Machine Design magazine article entitled “Connected Cars Spell Opportunity for Manufacturing Distribution” by Victoria Fraza Kickham, this trend is well underway. Imaging cameras, LIDAR, radar and other sensing technology is ramping up in the automotive industry.
“Semiconductor sales for connected cars will see the most dramatic growth this year. For 2016, IC Insights says revenues of IoT semiconductors used in connected-cities applications are expected to rise 15% to about $11.4 billion while the connected vehicle category is projected to climb 66% to $787 million this year.”
However, this revolution goes far beyond merely selling chips, wiring, sensors or creating programs. It even eclipses selling computer operating systems such as has been Microsoft’s model since its inception. Per a Design Engineering Magazine December 2015 article entitled, “Intelligence and the Connected Car” by Peter Varhol:
“204% - amount that revenue from all digital audio content (entertainment, safety, vehicle management, etc.) is expected to grow between 2016 and 2021.” (source: PwC’s Connected Car Study, 2015
Clearly, the major technology companies want their part of this digital computer content market. But, it does not end there. The four major technology companies (Google, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft) are in competition to “own” the cloud based market. A major share in “the cloud” will probably be a “live or die” scenario for these companies over the next ten to twenty years. This market is known as “big data,” and it has everything to do with the collection, storage, management, distribution and manipulation of huge quantities of information from around the globe.
Not uncharacteristically, these four technology companies are taking a different approach to this future. In his January 2017 article entitled “Microsoft’s Connected Vehicle Platform is a more far-reaching approach than either Apple’s or Google’s,” Mr. Anderson notes the basic difference.
“While infotainment units are a measured quantity in a vehicle, and Apple and Google are looking to leverage their strong mobile presence in that specific area, it’s becoming clear that Microsoft, along with Amazon, are looking to take a road less traveled. Rather than putting a drivers focus on the in-dash unit of their car and forcing auto makers to pick and choose which of their inventory supports these mobile operating systems, Amazon and Microsoft are looking to leverage their impressive cloud services across hardware.”
Put simply, Apple and Google are looking to “extend our mobile experience from phones and simple tablets to automobiles. This is noted by Mr. Anderson as follows.
“While not directly tied to CES, Ford also announced several of its “smart cars” in-dash infotainment units will also support Android Auto as well as Apple’s CarPlay platforms. Nevertheless, both Apple and Google are looking to extend a consumers mobile experience, either through aftermarket additions or built-in hardware, offering another touch-screen-centric app focused interaction in the car.”
“In this future, autonomous cars become moving entertainment centers, fully equipped with the latest apps and are an extension of a user’s preferred smartphone experience.”
Microsoft and Amazon are leveraging their cloud based prowess.
“On the other side of the battlefield we are now seeing cloud computing giants such as Amazon and Microsoft take an indirect approach to the connect car.”
Simply stated, I believe Apple and Google have a short term, “cash in on today” philosophy, while Microsoft and Amazon have a “build a slower but more substantial longer term” infrastructure base. In my opinion, we need the longer-term infrastructure base to create a stable new “self-driving” transportation infrastructure.
As someone who writes about water and energy infrastructure issues in my blog, I have seen the same approach over the last 20 years in those critical infrastructure areas as well. Combating this “short term, cash in on today cheap fix” mentality is the reason I wrote my three books involving water, Understanding Water Rights and Conflicts, Second Edition, Understanding Water and Terrorism and Water, Our Most Precious Resource. Simply stated, I set out to enhance public education, so that in a democracy, the majority of people needing water and electrical services could make rational, reasonable decisions.
It is clear, the “self-driving,” autonomous automobile industry will probably become almost as critical an infrastructure as the water supply system and the electrical grid. This is why I believe what we do now may well be an “inflection” point for the industry going forward. Unfortunately, we tend to take a short-term view (“how can I make the most money in the shortest period of time approach”) to those infrastructures which impact us the most, regardless of consequence.
If Google – Apple win out in this battle, then “fast and cheap” may well win out over “longer term, well thought out” solutions. It is obvious that Google – Apple are going for very short term cash rather than long term stability. Clearly, this is the Google – Apple inflection point which we have reached between strategies in the rapidly expanding automotive “self-driving” technology infrastructure.
The automotive industry of the 20th century obviously has advanced far past what I knew and grew up with. The “Ford assembly line” days are long gone. My son, as a mechanic, is more a computer technician than an old-style mechanic. Self-driving and autonomous cars are going to be extensions of our homes and business environments. But the question is, which direction will we take?
If things progress as I have seen in the water and energy infrastructures, we will follow the Google-Apple path. This is reason I believe we are becoming a Google – Apple world.
Sincerely,
H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Email: tmcco@msn.com
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