Much of the CES show in 2015 revolved around the introduction of Microsoft’s new Windows 10 platform. These were truly revolutionary changes in the hardware and software arena. Advances by Microsoft, Apple and Google over the last few years have opened up a new future with respect to automation. Technologies such as facial recognition and the entire spectrum of bio-metric identification are coming into the mainstream. I am using the new Windows 10 “Hello” capabilities of fingerprint recognition to log into my Surface Pro 3 computer. It is very quick and secure.
However, CES 2016 presented something different. One article entitled What can CES 2016 tell Companies about Tech Trends, by the Boston Consulting Group, ( http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/what-can-ces-2016-tell-companies-about-tech-trends ) noted:
“The breadth of industries represented at CES widens every year as connectivity solutions are applied in sectors as diverse as automotive, health care, food, and logistics.”
One of the comments I noted from a journalist/techie during the show was that much of what was exhibited at CES 2016 was “silly” as compared to previous shows. This was in no way denigrating the show, as many of the technologies being demonstrated were truly “fantastic” according to the same commenter, as well as others. What I believe he meant was instead of demonstrating revolutionary technology as in the past, many of the exhibits were more esoteric (out-there).
One excellent example of an esoteric use of technology was the array of automated and connected pet feeders. One article entitled At CES You Can Even Find a Connected Gadget for your Dog, by Stacey Higginbotham, January 8, 2016 ( http://fortune.com/2016/01/08/ces-cleverpet/ ) gives the details. Who would have thought that you could set up a device which would allow you to monitor your pet’s needs remotely using your cell phone, tablet or computer across the cloud (Internet of Things)? Not only, who would have thought this possible a few short years ago, but who would have thought there was a need for such an idea or product. However, think of what this may mean for the “dog kennel/boarding” industry.
There were numerous other examples of this “far-fetched,” “out of the box” thinking at CES 2016. It was almost as if developers were going out of their way to connect things (which I believe they were). There were numerous automated automotive concepts. A question in the Tech Trends article centered on those born in 2016. What will their experience with driving be?
“It’s becoming increasingly likely that children born in 2016 could operate rather than drive their vehicles when they reach driving age in 16 or 17 years. Who knows? Getting that first driver’s license may no longer be an adolescent rite of passage. The convergence of automotive and digital technology is real, far-reaching, and accelerating at a pace of 0-to-60 miles per hour in less than four seconds.”
CES 2016 shows us that many things we thought couldn’t be automated certainly can be. While many of the devices at the CES 2016 show may have been “silly” and “frivolous” compared to previous shows (at lease that is the opinion of several viewers including me), the automation of our world continues. That is the point of this discussion. The Luddites of the 19th century (1811-1816) are not going to win.
As you can see, the race towards connecting almost anything to the “Internet of Things (IoT)” is increasing. Some of these things will not be wanted but many will lead to even more connectivity and innovation. However, advances in connectivity and innovation in computing, not just consumer electronics, are changing rapidly. Much of the world’s manufacturing and production is starting to rely on robotics.
The following article entitled Robotics at Boeing from the Mish Talk blog site gives a sense of what the future holds from an employee perspective.
“Hello Mish You are 100% correct about the impact of robots in aircraft manufacturing and elsewhere. I spent 37 years at Boeing as a design engineer (1967-2004). I have a MSME (master of science in mechanical engineering). This is what I know. The new 777X composite wing plant in Everett shocked the IAM (machinists’ union) as to how few new jobs were needed. The same happened at the new Propulsion assembly plant in Charleston. On opening day, IAM was greeted by a huge, giant robot welcoming them. In 2015, 79300 Boeing employees delivering 700 airplanes. That’s 113 employees per airplane. When I joined Boeing in 1967, Puget Sound had 120,000 employees and Boeing delivered about 300 airplanes (from memory). That’s 400 employees/airplane. Since 1967 there has been a 72% reduction in the number of people it takes to build an airplane! People I know in the robotic business tell me 60% of today’s jobs will be gone in 20 years. You have covered them: trucking, strawberry/cabbage picking, etc. Ex-Boeing Employee” -- Source: http://mishtalk.com/2016/02/20/robots-at-boeing-ex-boeing-employee-chimes-in-on-robotics/
In the same blog, a local newspaper article (Seattle Times) notes what the employees (at least the actual workers and not the senior level management) of Boeing are thinking.
“Local assembly plants are cranking out airplanes, pushing Boeing way past Airbus in jet deliveries. Yet the morale of the local workforce doesn’t match the boom, with employees troubled by continued job losses and by the fear of more to come. As of Nov. 30, Boeing had 1,424 fewer workers in Washington than it had at the beginning of the year. Its workforce here is down nearly 7,700 jobs, almost 9 percent, from the most recent peak in October 2012.”
So what is the solution for these Boeing employees? Well, maybe Boeing can use an additional 1,424 robot mechanics and programmers (or even a few more top management). On second thought, maybe not. Well at least these formerly “well paid” employees can get great paying jobs with top benefits at the local coffee shop or retail store.
Corporate use of robotics is advancing at a rapid pace across the globe. An article entitled North America robot sales set record for 2014, from the Robotics Industries Association in the March 2015 issue of Control Engineering magazine give some statistics on robotic advancement in the corporate world.
“Robot orders and shipments in North America set new records in 2014, according to the Robotic Industries Association (RIA), the industry's trade group. A total of 27,685 robots valued at Sl.6 billion were ordered from North American companies during 2014, an increase of 28% in units and 19% in dollars over 2013. Robot shipments also set new records, with 25,425 robots valued at Sl.5 billion being shipped to North American customers in 2014. Shipments grew 13% in units and 6% in dollars over the previous records set in 2013.”
Clearly this trend in robotics, as well as the IoT, is not going to slow down. In fact, the newest trend is to have robots design, build and fix other robots. The idea of an extremely profitable corporation owned by the top 1% with virtually no employees is very much the ideal, (at least from the management and owner perspective). At first thought, you think this is “impossible”. Yet, tell that to the 1,424 Boeing workers who lost their jobs in 2015. This was not due to corporate cutbacks or lack of product orders.
Boeing reported the following (Boeing fourth-quarter profit surges: sees cash rise in 2015, by Alwyn Scott and Sweta Singh, Jan. 28, 2016 - http://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-results-idUSKBN0L11EP20150128 ):
“Boeing Co (BA.N) reported a 23 percent increase in core fourth-quarter profit on Wednesday, topping analysts' estimates and sending its shares up 4.3 percent. Boeing forecast a rise in cash flow to $6.2 billion in 2015, at the top end of expectations, from $4.3 billion at the end of the year. “
Note, those jobs lost to robots will not come back when the economy “improves” as was typical in past decades.
So what does the future portend?
Part of this issue has to do with the following question. How does the ruling “elite” keep the “masses” (in what used to be the “middle class”) from revolting by this rapidly changing technological landscape, and declining economic and social system? It is my belief that many of the corporate and government “welfare” programs, decried by many of the ultra-conservative republicans and neocons, as well as others, are one stop gap answer, designed by those in that same ruling elite to resolve this advancing technology/employment problem.
Instead of having a meaningful long term discussion about the future, how it impacts the generations and how to prepare, the elite and their political “lapdogs” took a simpler approach to the problem. They found it is easier to “print” money from nothing and distribute some of it to the “masses” so they feel “wealthy.” Some of this wealth fabrication takes the form of increased government jobs in first level countries around the globe.
However, this presents a significant ideological problem to those same “small government, pro-business” conservative republicans and neo-cons. Clearly, it is not possible to “cut” the size of global government in an era of decreasing corporate jobs and increasing population. They want to maintain their power and prestige by keeping the “masses” happy and content.That is why you see the same old solutions presented by tired “old” men and women (such as all of those running for higher political office [President and Congress] – picked and approved by the ruling elite / top 1%).
As I have noted in past blogs, there are few discussions on a meaningful level about the advance of these technologies, especially where it relates to employment. The 1,400 Boeing employees would love to know what they are to do now. Do they go back to school to become programmers, robotic engineers or start a new career? If so, how will it be financed? Can they learn enough to compete in a world they hardly comprehend?
All this is easy enough to say unless, like many of the former Boeing employees, you are in the twilight of your life and your educational skills are over 30 years old. This Boeing situation is a micro-chasm of what our world is facing.
While I love the advances in technology and robotics as well as applaud the innovation and creativity, the deeper questions very much concern me. What do the millennials do? What education skillset and level is required over a lifetime for this new world they will live in? How does the generation of my granddaughters prepare for a fully inter-connected future, such as we glimpsed at CES 2016, that can barely be imagined today?
Clearly, the younger generation needs a new paradigm. I believe one real solution is to turn over the reins of power (politically and economically) to them and let them make their decisions about a future which belongs to them anyway.
Sincerely, H. Court Young
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