Automation 2020 – Where do you fit?

 

Automation is progressing at an incredible pace, as a result of the increase in technology. A close friend of mine and I were discussing this global trend recently and he asked about where he would fit into the new structure of society. He was also concerned for his children and grandchildren, as am I.

I love technology. I have a Microsoft SurfacePro 2 and SurfacePro 3 and am looking forward to the introduction of the SurfacePro 4 this fall. These are all hybrid computers which can be used both as tablets and as desktop/laptop computers. I have a hybrid cloud solution for my data and follow numerous technology oriented blogs. I am a member of the Microsoft Windows Insider program and have the new Windows 10 (beta) operating system on all of my production machines [not recommended by Microsoft].

Still, I am concerned, as I believe you should be. Technology and its brother, automation, have much promise but they also present several major challenges.

As I have noted in a previous blog, the Internet of Things (IoT) is rapidly expanding. In an article entitled 2015: A World with 1 Billion Connected Things, Processor.com, April 3, 2015, it is noted that:

“Smart homes and smart commercial buildings comprise what is known as ‘smart cities’ according to Gartner and in 2015 the research firm anticipates 1.1 billion connected things. Because of IoT investment and service opportunities, these smart homes and buildings will more or less make up half of the total connected things in use this year, with this total rising to 81% by 2020.”

As with the IoT increase, the industrial robotics market will also increase dramatically. This according to an article entitled Industrial robotics market to reach $44.48 billion by 2020, Modern Materials Handling mag, June 2015. This article states;

“Transparency Market Research (TMR), a market intelligence firm, has released a report forecasting the global industrial robotics market will reach a market value of $44.48 billion by 2020, growing from $29 billion in 2013.”

What are the predominate drivers for this increase in automation? As expected, the following factors are creating this increase.

“According to the report, factors such as the widespread adoption of robotics in small and medium-sized enterprises and rising labor costs drive the global industrial robotics market.”

This is a revenue, and presumably, a production increase of 53%. The article continues by noting the market segments and regions of growth.

“In 2013, the materials handling segment held the largest share in the global market.

In terms of revenue, the global industrial robotics market was led by Asia Pacific in 2013. In North America, Mexico is expected to be a promising market for industrial robotics.”

In addition an article entitled “What will automation controls and instrumentation look like in 2020,” Control Engineering magazine, June 2015 gives an overview of the development of these automation systems. This concept of universal connectivity is a major factor.

“Universal Connectivity – Big data, Internet of Things (IoT), and mobility will drive the industry to a common connectivity standard; one which will align with the consumer and commercial markets. Industry demand for ‘universal connectivity’ will force vendors into providing access to proprietary offerings.

Mobile applications and wireless will become the norm. With the convergence of the traditional desktop PCs and mobile devices (such as Microsoft Continuum, included in Windows 10) computing will change. Convergence and super-fast wireless access everywhere will create more cloud-based applications. Microsoft HoloLens will augment HMI [Human Machine Interface] and PLC [Programmable Logic Controllers] programming and visualization.” - Stephen J. Malyzsko

In the same Control Engineering magazine article, Brent Stromwall notes:

“Without an ‘at-your-fingertips’ availability of maintenance and technical knowledge, the younger workforce will be unsuccessful – incapable – of operating and maintaining the systems on today’s plant floor.”

So with this view of our future, what are the concerns? After all, this was the world envisioned in my youth. Take a peek (presumably on the YouTube website) at many of the automotive and home appliance television commercials of the 1950s and early 1960s. At the press of a button, your every wish comes true, at least when driving or in the kitchen.

My main concern goes to one of the basic motivations or drivers for this new revolution of which the major one is labor cost. This is essentially the challenge of the question – where do you fit? [Hint: you are the problem.]

As I took stock of the current political crop of “candidates” in the 2016 presidential and congressional races, I wanted to see if any of them discussed ‘automation’ or ‘robotics’ in any substantial manner. Oddly, I could not find one major candidate willing (or perhaps intelligent enough) to discuss such issues in any rational way. They all discuss education, primarily in the vein of keeping the same outmoded system. Each of their discussions add a few ‘tweaks’ to this outmoded system presumably enhance their power and portfolio (surprise, surprise).

We still have an educational system designed for the 18^th century (in my opinion). As noted in previous blogs, we have never discussed, let alone determined what an education should look like as we enter this new world of automation and robotics. The current comments/debates from the ultra-right, neocon Republicans (Bush, Walker, and all the others) to the liberal (Hillary, etc.) are all useless drivel designed to play to the electorate as campaign advertising between main stream media drivel which passes as entertainment and/or news on “the tube.”

I believe the current crop of ‘Rs’ and ‘Ds’ both in office and running for office are mostly for the entertainment of the top 1% (elites). One exception was Ron Paul (2012), who was marginalized, and his son Rand Paul (2016), who will be marginalized soon. They both ask questions none of the other candidates want to broach because the correct answers would diminish their power and portfolios as well as that of their masters [the elites]. The other candidate which I enjoy watching is ‘the Donald.’ He provides comical relief in a serious setting, and that, in my opinion, is about all the United States Presidency is truly worth in these times.

So, none of these ‘leaders’ dare raise the subject of where you fit into the rapidly changing future of automation and robotics. What about the large and small businesses which provide the goods and services upon which your life apparently depends [hint ; the plastic doodads from China you can’t live without]. Well, there are a plethora of articles and blogs about robotics and automation, especially on the technical side. There are even a few that take the luddite approach, but there seem to be few which discuss or call for a debate about where you fit into the mix.

It is a very challenging question. I am sure high level conferences like the TED programs discuss such issues. However, these typically do not trickle down to the ‘average American’ let alone the global community. And let’s face it, this is a global challenge.

The question was not answered in my youth either. What happened when your kitchen appliances could do everything from order your food, prepare it and serve it without any human intervention? All of the above was intimated by the advertisers, even back then. How then does the “homemaker” spend all the time which is freed up?

This same issue is even more challenging today because it is close to becoming reality. What happens when, in the name of cost and efficiency, your job is ‘automated’? You, all of the sudden have “all the time in the world.” Money aside, how do you spend your time? Watching TV? Going to ball games? Shopping online? Surfing the net? Golfing? And perhaps my favorite, reading a book (sorry for the throwback to ancient technology)?

It is for this reason, which I wrote my EPub entitled World Collapse or New Eden. This eBook asks these kind of provoking questions, and presents 101 expert predictions about your world and where they are today.

While I love the technology and am looking forward to ‘self-driving cars’ and other fascinating innovations, these issues of automation and robotics are very concerning. In my opinion we are exceptionally ill-prepared to deal with them emotionally, mentally or physically. It seems very clear that the elites, controlling ‘our political leaders,’ ‘our governments’ and the mega corporations which provide most of the goods and services we consume, wish to keep it that way.

So, my question still remains. With 2020 only 5 years away, where do you fit into our automated future?

Sincerely,

H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Facebook: HCourtYoung
Phone: 303-726-8320
Email: tmcco@msn.com
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Smart Homes vs. the Grid

 

As I watched numerous technology conferences this spring, I saw the Internet of Things (“IOT”) come alive. The Internet of Things is defined by Gartner, Inc. as follows:

“Gartner Inc., defines the Internet of Things as ‘the network of dedicated physical objects (things) that contain embedded technology to sense or interact with their internal state or external environment. The IoT comprises an ecosystem that includes things, communication, applications and data analysis.’”

Smart Homes are now the “in-thing.” We are connecting our homes to the internet and cloud at an amazing rate. A recent article entitled “The Future of the Smart Home is Now at CES,” Security Dealer & Integrator magazine, February 2015 noted:

“My biggest take-away from the giant Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas was the ascension of the connected home.”

Additionally the article notes:

“It’s true that CES is showcasing the ‘future’ of technology, but for the smart home, it is obvious that the future is now.”

Another article entitled “A sensored landscape,” by Tracy Maple, Internet Retailer Magazine, June 2015, further amplifies this trend. The article notes:

“Sensors are being embedded in billions of everyday devices, allowing coffeemakers to order filters and printers to order ink, and providing brands and retailers with unprecedented levels of consumer data. Welcome to the Internet of Things.”

Further, as noted in the article, you will have the following to look forward to:

“There will come a day, and James McQuivey is not even kidding as he says this, when consumers will welcome cameras in their bathroom mirror and shower stall. They won’t worry about cameras in their closet either, or that their toilet is equipped to analyze their waste for possible health problems, says the Forrester Research Inc. vice president and principal analyst.”

So, if this is the new world, how does it work? It extends far beyond just computers, tablets and cell phones. Again the article, A sensored landscape, gives a glimpse of how the world is changing.

“The Amazon Dash Replenishment Service (DRS) enables connected devices to order goods from Amazon when supplies run low – like a coffeemaker that orders more coffee beans. Poppy, through invention company Quirky, Inc., is a new line of smart appliances that includes an artisanal pour-over coffee machine, a baby formula maker, and a pet food dispenser that will measure remaining supplies and place an order using DRS before running out.”

Retailers like Amazon and manufacturers like Whirlpool and Nest are easing consumers into the concept of a connected home environment according to Tracy. Home Depot is working to show consumers how they might benefit from connected appliances and devices as well. Best Buy features a line of connected lights and thermostats.

By now you should be getting the idea that replenishment (of goods and materials) is a very big market. Instead of going to the store and buying things we need, we can have it done via automation. This is just the next wave of taking advantage of a market which has always existed in a “faster” and “perhaps more efficient manner”.

Gartner estimated the potential number of IoT devices over the next few years, according the article, and the numbers are staggering (per the following table).

The Growth of Internet of Things devices
	2013	2014	2015	2020
Number of consumer devices (in billions)	1.84	2.24	2.87	13.17
Total IoT units (in billions, all industries*)	3.03	3.75	4.88	25.01
*includes units intended for use in automotive, consumer, generic business, and vertical business areas.

What does this “wonderful new world” built on technology have to do with the “grid”, or more precisely the electrical grid? How interconnected are they? It goes far beyond just charging electrical devices. Two very recent events in my life should help bring this into focus.

I received a phone call from my daughter last week. She and her husband, Henry, were experiencing the “perfect storm” on that morning. The power (electricity) was out at their house, probably due to the recent heavy rains. As Henry is an IT person, working to keep our technology functioning, he often works from home and is “on-call” a significant amount of the time. His job requires that he be connected to the internet and that his laptops and modems be powered by the grid. On that morning, he could do neither.

Normally in this situation, he would have gotten in his car and driven to a local “hotspot” which had power and internet connectivity, had a coffee drink and continued to work. However, that same morning, the garage door spring broke, so he could not raise the door to get his car out. Hence, they called me. I picked him up and brought him down to our house where there was both electricity and internet connectivity. He plugged in his laptop and connected to our internet and went back to work (sadly without the coffee drink). While, in this instance, his garage door failure was mechanical, think what would have happened in this new IoT world when the car, smart home and garage door were connected to the internet and to each other (hint – the result could have been the same).

The second situation occurred as I write this blog. My internet went down and Comcast could not get a repair person out to our house for three days. I replaced the cable modem but to no avail. My internal network, wired and wireless works, but without connectivity to the internet or the cloud. Many of my documents are stored in the cloud, but fortunately I have them on hard drive as well (known as a hybrid storage solution). This lack of connectivity impacts both my wife’s business and my financial trading business. Fortunately, the Comcast system came back up a few hours later.

So as the number of connected sensors multiply, what will the impact of an interruption of either the electrical grid or the internet mean? As seen in the examples, it was an inconvenience but not an insurmountable challenge.

In the not too distant future, when you are living in your “smart home,” it might still be an inconvenience relative to your connected coffeemaker, crock pot, pet food dispenser or even your refrigerator and washing machine. But what about the other devices in our “smart society” such as connected heart monitors, dialysis machines or the sensors in your self-driving car and roadway? How about your job? Since many more of us will probably be working from home, how will you connect with your co-workers and management? What about the new self-driving semi-truck convoys, with their sensors, computers and wireless connectivity, which are projected to be in use in the next few years?

I discuss this type of a future in my EPub entitled “World Collapse or New Eden” through the predictions presented and followed from 2008 to today. There are many ways for this new future to enhance and bless our lives but only if our infrastructure is dependable and stable.

Current political discussion from both parties (I call them the “R”s and “D”s) pay only very distant lip service to the vulnerability of our modern infrastructure, especially the water supply system and the electrical grid. These are two infrastructure components which are absolutely critical to our society and way of life. For example, scientists have noted the possibility of major solar flares which could, if strong enough, could totally disrupt, if not, destroy our electrical grid. The solution is apparently reasonably simple and not extremely expensive. However, neither the politicians nor the corporate owners of the utilities are interested in bothering with a fix. In fact, over the last few administrations and corresponding Congressional sessions (regardless of party), I have noted that funding has been drastically reduced for both of these infrastructures.

It seems both the utilities and the politicians, mentioned above, are more interested in their bottom lines and portfolios than doing what is best to protect our infrastructure long-term. As more and more devices become connected, both in our homes and our workplaces, these challenges will continue to get more and more critical.

This is why I believe there is no significant difference (other than the bank account) between candidates named Hilary, Romney, Walker, Bush, Christy, Pelosi, Reid and essentially all the other mainstream candidates or potential candidates in the upcoming 2016 U.S. presidential or congressional races. The only exception in the presidential race, in my opinion, is Rand Paul. He is truly an outsider with ideas which will benefit the middle and lower classes, not the elites. Because the beneficiaries of Mr. Paul’s ideas are not the elites, he will be marginalized by all of those mentioned above, the main stream media (MSM) and the power structure manipulating the elections.

The challenge of the decaying electrical grid is real. It is both the fault of the political system and the utilities which own it. These quasi-private companies are unwilling to take a long term view of the grid, because of their bottom line. In essence, next quarters profits are more important than the well-being of the next generation. The political system, as mentioned above, has its own agenda which does not include what is best for the middle and lower classes or the stability of our infrastructure. In my own experience, I have noted over the years, whether “R”s or “D”s are in power, that funding for water supply systems are often “cut” (except to the largest utilities and districts) to make way for other more lucrative (for the political stakeholders) programs.

So what is to be done? Well, there are a few visionaries. One is Elon Musk with his battery storage/solar concept. In essence, he has made a business of equipping homes with solar panels and now wants to add storage batteries to the mix.

Net metering is the concept that owners of roof top solar systems pay for the panels and connections to the grid. Any electricity they produce over what they use is sold back to the utility at a negotiated rate. However, this reduces the amount of revenue to the utility as the owners of roof top solar panels apply electrical production towards their usage before getting paid for electricity. The theory is that if the owner of the panels is willing to invest in the system, this is money the utility does not have to spend for additional generation capacity. However, the utility does have to maintain the existing grid and its reserve electrical capacity.

A recent article entitled “Batteries Are Carving Out Space on the Grid,” by Thomas W. Overton JD, Power Magazine, May 2015 noted:

“Behind the meter storage has thus far been almost entirely confined to commercial systems designed to reduce demand charges. But storage paired with solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is drawing increasing attention.

… very few residential customers [with PV systems] pay demand charges, meaning there is no economic incentive to install storage.”

“That, however, may change rapidly because of the pressures on net metering and its effect on utility revenue. A possible harbinger of things to come occurred in late February [2015] when Arizona utility Salt River Project changed its rate structure to include a demand charge for customers with roof-top solar. While the intent was to close a revenue gap, observers noted that the move also opens the door to residential storage … Roof top solar firm SolarCity immediately sued to overturn the decision, but it is also poised to cash in on it through its partnership with Tesla – the two companies have paired to offer solar-plus storage systems.”

As you can see, the idea of having roof top solar owners pay a demand charge negates the principle of investing in the generation capacity of the utility. These owners would be better off by buying a utility bond than investing in roof top solar if there is a demand charge. However, in the long run, this is very counterproductive.

Adding battery storage counters this “demand charge” by allowing the solar users to use electricity darning very low rate hours (at night) for large applications such as washing machines, and car charging. Usage during the day would be minimal, with batteries supplementing large use applications such as air conditioning. The solar panels would recharge the batteries during the day, and very little electricity would be sold back to the utility. With enough batteries, and an efficient smart home, this would make the solar owner look “off-grid” to the utility with the grid tie used only for emergency periods.

These demand charges maintain the “status-quo” of a very centralized electrical grid, rather than a much more stable and efficient decentralized grid. The utilities retain their monopoly position of power and influence with very little regard for what is best for the future of this country or the global economy.

However, the fact remains that without significant insight, vision, discussion and investment in our electrical grid, the coming technological revolution will be slowed. The electrical grid is the life blood of this new technological revolution, and in my opinion, the patient is not doing at all well.

Just like internet access, which is becoming less and less affordable to many people, electrical energy may become available to fewer and fewer people due to global population increase, rising energy demand and lack of modern infrastructure. Think of going several days or weeks without connectivity. While you can certainly survive without your cell phone, taking “selfies” or texting, what about the billions of electrical sensors and chips in our increasingly automated, robotic factories, farms and societies? What about our water supply systems which increasing use smart meters and smart pumping stations to treat and deliver water? What about the very complex life giving medical systems in hospitals, which are part of what my son-in-law Henry helps maintain?

As you can see, these new smart homes with connected crock pots, coffeemakers, refrigerators, stoves and washing machines, not to mention the computers and cell phones, are very dependent on both the internet and electrical grid. The more computer conferences I attend or read about (most of which are on the internet by the way), the more concerned I am about the global future for my two granddaughters. This concern comes not because of the fascinating and innovative technology but because of the lack of significant vision, action, ideals and leadership from our political system as well as the absolute greed of our global corporate/government system which manages and controls the majority of the world’s resources.

Sincerely,

H. Court Young
Author, publisher, speaker and geologist
Promoting awareness through the written word
Research, freelance writing & self-publishing services
Facebook: HCourtYoung
Phone: 303-726-8320
Email: tmcco@msn.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/hcourtyoung
Twitter: http://twitter.com/hcourtyoung
Blog: http://hcourtyoung.blogspot.com