Your World in 2011 Predictions Analyzed in December 2013

In 2008 I wrote an eBook entitled “World Collapse or New Eden, Your World in 2011.” This eBook was a compilation of over one hundred predictions by experts in all fields of endeavor.

In this, the year of the birth of my first Granddaughter, I wanted to see if these predictions give any clue to what her life may be like. How reasonable and/or predictive were these experts’ prognostications?

Accordingly, some of my favorite predictions from this eBook are reproduced as follows.

1. “By 2011 16,000 bbl. annually (average 160 bpd) at a cost of $30.00 per barrel from the Green River Formation (oil shale)” – World Oil Magazine, March 2008

2. “But by 2010 or so, many Middle Eastern nations will themselves be past the midpoint. World Production will then have to fall.” Oil and the Future of Energy, Scientific American, The Lyons Press 2007

3. “Within two years these nations [OPEC Stares in the Middle East] will pass 30 percent nearing the Level reached during the Oil-Price shocks of the 1970s. By 2010 their share will quite probably hit 50 percent." Oil and the Future of Energy, Scientific American, The Lyons Press 2007

4. ''Our studies indicate that it is feasible to stabilize atmospheric CO2 levels AT 450 ppmv over the next half a century if coal-based energy is completely decarbonized and other measures are implemented. This effort would involve decarbonizing 36 gigawatts of new coal generating capacity by 2020 (corresponding to 7 percent of new coal capacity built worldwide during the decade beginning In 2010 under business-as-usual conditions).” Oil and the Future of Energy, Scientific American, The Lyons Press 2007

5. “And just this past May, General Electric vowed to raise its energy efficiency by 30 percent by 2012 to enhance the company's shareholder value." Oil and the Future of Energy, Scientific American, The Lyons Press 2007

6. The Bush Administration called for an ‘Ambitious but Achievable' reduction in carbon intensity of 18 % by the year 2012." Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

7. ''At Hudson’s Bay, near the southern end of the polar bears range, the summer fast is now a month longer than it was decades ago and the average birth weight of cubs dropped 15% from 1981 to 1998. The WWF [World Wildlife Fund] estimates that, if this trend continues, females may become too thin to reproduce by year 2012.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

8. “Any delay in getting started [emission cuts] will only add to the sharpness of the emission cuts required in the 2020s and beyond. Interestingly, the team found that if the US and developing world both continues to emit freely after 2012, then the 2 C goal will slip out of reach by 2030.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

9. “Even if the prescribed reductions [Kyoto targets] were maintained for a full century-rather than until 2012-they would only bring down the year 2100 temperature increase by a few percent, according to a 1998 analysis by Tom Wigley fo the US National Center for Atmospheric Research.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

10. “The renewable obligation which requires that at least 10% of electricity comes from wind or other renewable sources by 2010 with an ‘aspiration’ to increase this proportion to 20% by 2020.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

11. “With a raft of initiatives such as those in place, the UK aims to reduce its overall emissions (relative to 1997 levels) by 20% by 2010, 60% by 2050 and 80% by 2100.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

12. “One such city is taking shape on an island just northeast of Shanghai at the mouth of the Yangtze River. In stark contrast to the well-worn cities of Europe, the new city of Dongtan will be built from scratch on Chongming, China’s third largest island. The population of up to 10,000, expected by 2010 (with another 70,000 in later phases) will drive hybrid cars or peddle bikes along a network of paths. Renewable power for homes and businesses will flow from a centralized energy centre being developed in partnership with the University of East Anglia.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

13. “General Motors has set itself an even more ambitious target of selling hydrogen cars by 2010.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

14. “As of 2006, ethanol production in America was on a par with Brazil’s – close to eighteen billion liters (five billion US gallons) – but that equaled less than 4% of the fuel swallowed each year by America’s cars and trucks. New tax breaks and incentives could nearly double that percentage by 2012.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

15. “The biggest challenge may be the profusion of electricity-guzzling equipment, from fridges and lights to big screen TVs. Indeed, a 2006 report by the Energy Saving Trust suggested that at current rates of increase, the amount of energy consumed in UK homes by electrical goods is set to double by 2010.” Climate Change, Robert Henson, Rough Guides, 2008

16. “Bush based the case for his initial first-term tax cuts on the $237 billion surplus inherited from Clinton and the $5.6 trillion surplus projected through 2011.” The Coming Generational Storm, Kotlikoff & Burns, The MIT Press, 2005

17. “The number of retirees in Chinas’ cities will soar from 48.2 million last year to 70 million in 2010 and 100 million by 2020, according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Security. Unlike the United States and Europe, which prospered before their elderly populations expanded, China is in danger of growing old before it gets rich.” USA Today

18. “Mt. Rainer eruption, volcano, ash, cinder, blast, blew, AD 2010-2011” The Bible Code

19. “Comet impact, 2011 AD, toxic” The Bible Code

20. “Great Earthquake” The Bible Code

21. “Canada's Conservative government says the country's troops will leave southern Afghanistan in 2011.” Associated Press (AP), CNN February 2008

22. “Navigation, power and communications systems that rely on GPS satellite navigation will be disrupted by violent solar activity in 2011, research shows.” New Scientist Tech News Service, Jeff Hecht, September 2006

23. “Israel's government on Monday endorsed the ambitious plan of a private entrepreneur to install the world's first electric car network here by 2011, with half a million recharging stations to crisscross the tiny nation.” AP, January 22, 2008

24. “By 2011, more than 9 million households in the U.S. will subscribe to telco-provided video service, according to Boston-based Yankee Group Research.” The Business Review (Albany), February 29, 2008

25. “Millennia ago, Egyptian and Celtic authors recorded prophetic warnings [now in the Kolbrin Bible] for the future and their harbinger signs are now converging on 2012. The Destroyer [Planet X] is also known today as Wormwood, Nibiru, Planet X and Nemesis.  There are also troubling prophetic correlations to the future predictions of Mother Shipton's "Fiery Dragon" and the "Red Comet" warning of the Mayan Calendar 2012.” Kolbrin website, http://kolbrin.com

26. “Desalination is also the most high-tech and most international part of the water industry. The market is expected to reach us$66 billion in 2010 and us$126 billion by 2015.” Blue Covenant, Maude Barlow, 2007, p73

27. “In 2011, the law will revert to the prior pre-2001 law (i.e. federal estate tax will be owed) unless new legislation is passed. The experts are predicting and speculating that the estate tax in one form or another will not be entirely repealed, i.e. it is not likely new legislation will keep the year 2010 law in place in 2011. Predictions are that the law will change again before 2010 or at a minimum, no new legislation will occur and the prior tax law will come back in 2011 as the 2001 Tax Act sets forth. Predictions are that spending on anti-terrorist measures will cause a need for additional revenue. The estate tax in some form will likely be needed to generate this revenue.” Joanne M. McCormack, http://www.mccormacklaw.info

28. “More and more players have entered China's online travel fray - and why wouldn't they? In 2006, online travel services in China was a US$200 million (€150 million) market with 2.75 million users a 72 percent increase in volume and 82 percent increase in value from 2005, according to Shanghai-based iResearch Consulting. By contrast, the industry in the US is expected to grow 17 percent annually through 2010. And frenzied growth is not letting up - China's market is expected to double this year alone, reaching 5.7 million users by 2008. Its projected online travel market will hit US$860 billion by 2010.” Fully booked, Panthea Lee, EuroBiz Magazine, September 2007

29. “We have presented a set of models that produce predictions for the number of US land falling hurricanes likely to occur in the next five years. The models are based on a variety of plausible assumptions and methods. In this article we have emphasized the assumptions, the benefits and the shortcomings of each model.” 5 Year Prediction of the number of Hurricanes which make U.S. Landfall, Stephen Jewson, Enrica Bellone, Thomas Laepple, Kechi Nzerem, Shree Khare, Manuel Lonfat, Adam O’Shay, Jeremy Penzer, Katie Coughlin, Risk Management Solutions; London, UK., Alfred-Wegener Institute; Bremerhaven, Germany, London School of Economics; London, UK, http://www.rms-research.com/references/Jewson.pdf.

30.“In the US Dollar Index, a significant weight is given to the Euro. In order to more accurately reflect the strength of the dollar relative to other world currencies, the Federal Reserve created the Trade Weighted US Dollar Index, which includes a bigger collection of currencies than US Dollar Index, based on the annual trade that they have with US. The regions included are Europe (Euro countries), Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, United Kingdom, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sweden, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile, and Colombia.” From "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_Weighted_US_dollar_Index"

31.“Russia has had a growth in sales of world brand cars. Its automotive market has grown at an annual rate of 5-7% and is expected to cross 2.33 Mn car sales by 2014. Russian Automotive Industry Forecast (2006-2011) - In it predictions are made that – Sales of domestically manufactured cars will remain more or less consistent throughout 2005-2010. Russian assembled cars of foreign parts, which presently make a sale of 220,000 units, will further, gradually grow by 2010. Brand new imported cars will enter the Russian market and will escalate by 2010.” RNCOS Research: (http://www.marketsmonitor.com/category/IM036.html)

32.“Over the decades much discussion has focused on finding the exact correlation between the Mayan Long Count and the Gregorian calendar. Most researchers in the field have now come to agree that the so-called GMT correlation, placing the beginning of the Long Count 4 Ahau 8 Cumku on the Julian day 584 283, August 11, 3114 BC, is correct. This means by consequence that it will end on December 21, 2012 and most, such as Jose Arguelles, John Jenkins and Terence McKenna, who have taken an interest in the calendar of the Maya, have endorsed this date as the end of the current cycle.” Mayan Calendar: Why the Creation Cycles do not end December 21, 2012, but October 28, 2011, Carl Johan Calleman, http://www.experiencefestival.com/a/2012/id/1726

33. “Why did the ancient Mayan or pre-Maya choose December 21st, 2012 A.D., as the end of their Long Count calendar? This article will cover some recent research. Scholars have known for decades that the 13-baktun cycle of the Mayan "Long Count" system of timekeeping was set to end precisely on a winter solstice, and that this system was put in place some 2300 years ago. This amazing fact - that ancient Mesoamerican skywatchers were able to pinpoint a winter solstice far off into the future - has not been dealt with by Mayanists. And why did they choose the year 2012? One immediately gets the impression that there is a very strange mystery to be confronted here. I will be building upon a clue to this mystery reported by epigrapher Linda Schele in Maya Cosmos (1994). This article is the natural culmination of the research relating to the Mayan Long Count and the precession of the equinoxes that I explored in my recent book Tzolkin: Visionary Perspectives and Calendar Studies (Borderlands Science and Research Foundation, 1994).” 2012: The how and why of the Mayan end date in 2012 AD, John Major Jenkins, Mountain Astrologer, Dec-Jan 1995, http://www.experiencefestival.com/a/2012/id/7257

34. “There is a lack of information regarding the amount of lead, PCBs, ozone depleting substances and other potentially hazardous and toxic substances that are contained in major appliances. PCBs are contained in capacitors, transformers and motors, particularly in older equipment and it is estimated that approximately 10% of old appliances contain PCBs.1 CFCs were previously used as refrigerants and insulation on refrigerators, freezers and air conditioners, before they were phased out in the 1980s and 1990s. It is estimated that at least half a million appliances containing PCBs and CFCs will continue to enter the waste stream each year until at least 2010 or 2015.” Major Appliances Materials Project, Commonwealth Government Initiative, National Heritage Trust, 2001, http://www.environment.gov.au/settlements/publications/waste/electricals/majorapplicances/pubs/majorapplreport.pdf

35. “So far that seems to have worked: consensus standards on ballasts for fluorescent lamps and clothes washers negotiated in 2000 are being implemented as planned with effectiveness dates in 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2010; and over a dozen new consensus standards were negotiated in the succeeding five years and were enacted into law in the Energy Policy Act of 2005.” Saving Energy, Jobs, David B. Goldstein, Bay Tree Publishing, 2007

36. “French electric rates are at the same level as the U.S., so nuclear power doesn’t seem to result in lower rates. Perhaps the most telling point is that for the past two years, the French have been going gangbusters for wind power. They will have 2 million KW from wind power by the start of 2007 and their target is 13.5 million KW by 2010.” Winning Our Energy Independence, S. David Freeman, Gibbs Smith, Publisher, 2007

37. “China has set forth a renewable portfolio standard goal similar to that adopted in California and Texas, that 5 percent of their energy will come from renewable by the close of this decade, 2010, and 10 percent by the close of the next, 2020.” Winning Our Energy Independence, S. David Freeman, Gibbs Smith, Publisher, 2007

38. “This will also be the likely annual falloff or ‘average decay rate’ [4% per year] for oil production and use through about 2008-35.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005

39. “Year 2000 is, so far, the year of peak production. A 2,400 Gb ultimate would delay the theoretical peak until year 2012. Since production at the peak is quite flat, the model gives a production rate in 2012 of only 6.2 percent larger than in 2000. This is in sharp contrast to the demand-driven prediction of the IEA [International Energy Agency], which calls for an increase of about 23 percent in production from now to 2012.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, Prediction of World Peak Oil Production by Seppo A. Korpela

40. “Europe’s imports of oil are set to rise from the current 50 percent to 75 percent by 2010 and to 90 percent by 2025 which will cause a huge drain on its balance of payments as it vies with the U.S. and other countries for Middle East oil.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, The Assessment and Importance of Oil Depletion by Colin J. Campbell

41. “Oil provides some 40 percent of the world’s energy needs and as much as 90 percent of its transport fuel. It also has a critical role in agriculture, which provides food for the world’s population of 6 billion people.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, The Assessment and Importance of Oil Depletion by Colin J. Campbell

42. “The French Parliamentary report writers Bireaux and Le Deaut recently noted of Germany’s decision to abandon nuclear energy: ‘Given the strength of Germany’s industrial capacity and the number of both domestic and international market opportunities for new and renewable sources of energy [NRSE], what might have initially appeared as economic suicide could in fact be the very reverse, the choice of a major strategic change at the right moment and therefore the best possible decision. The abrupt change has already led to the creation of around 35,000 jobs in the wind energy sector and Germany’s government has announced that up to 120,000 jobs will be created in the sector by 2010.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, French Nuclear Power and the Global Market, An Economic Illusion by Marc Saint Areman and Andre Crouzet

43. “When we consider the institutional response to global warming, it is very important to recognize that a kind of critical mass has already been reached: over 180 nations have ratified the Kyoto Treaty. The range of possible measures, some starting in 2008 and others in the period 2010-12, have ramified to implicate every aspect of the economy and society in the north and south.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, Oh! Kyoto by Andrew McKillop

44. “Those will focus on oil and gold, energy areas, arms and defense industries, certain utilities, some agro-industries, government paper (such as Treasury Bills), and of course hard cash. When oil prices continue to rise, as they will in the foreseeable future of the five to eight year range, this defensive strategy will simply fall apart.. As numerous chapters in this book show, there is no likelyhood of cheap oil or energy surviving beyond about 2010-15, and the second date is generous: well before 2010 could be the ‘expiry date’ for conventional or classic bourse plays.” The Final Energy Crisis, Edited by Andrew McKilloy and Sheila Newman, Pluto Press, 2005, Crash and Crumble, Oil shocks and the Bourse by Andrew McKillop

Comment: Bourse: a stock market in a non-English speaking country, esp. France, also the Paris stock-exchange. Oxford College Dictionary

45. “The baby boom generation – those born between 1946 and 1964 – is making its way through the age groups like the proverbial pig through a python and will account for an explosive increase in the numbers of elderly beginning in 2011.” Introduction to Public Health, Mary Jane Schneider, Jones & Bartlett Publishers, 2004

46. “It is likely that in the future, there will be fewer metals and more plastics entering the waste stream as a result of appliance disposal. However, it would seem that there is an upper limit to the amount of plastic that can be used in major appliances, and that some components will continue to be manufactured from metals (or composite materials containing some metal). It is noted that there is a distinct lack of information regarding the amount of lead, PCBs, ozone depleting substances and other potentially hazardous and toxic substances that are contained in major appliances. However, assuming that PCBs and CFCs were used in appliances manufactured before 1990, it is estimated that at least half a million appliances containing these substances will continue to enter the waste stream each year until at least 2010 or 2015.” Major Appliances Materials Project, National Heritage Trust, Commonwealth of Australia, 2001

47. “The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012 -- potentially affecting airline flights, communications satellites and electrical transmissions. But forecasters can't agree on how intense it will be. A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday it is evenly split over whether the peak will be 90 sunspots or 140 sunspots.”

Comment: A sunspot is a region on the surface of the sun, called the photosphere, which is temporarily cool and dark compared to surrounding regions. Sunspots average 1500 degrees Celsius compared to an average surface temperature of 6000 degrees Celsius. Sunspots also have magnetic field strengths thousands of times greater than the surrounding surface. It is estimated that sunspots cycle every 11 years.

1. “From 2007-2011, predictions indicate a 45% increase in low-glycemic food products to reach over 1.8 billion dollars.” On Becoming an Entrepreneur, Capital: Girişim Rehberi 2008, http://man102.bilkent.edu.tr/Files/Week03/Lec3.ppt
2. “The Barcelona Metropolitan Region is divided in administrative terms into seven "comarques" (equivalent to the English counties) Balance between supply and demand indicates that security margins are below desirable levels and that area is prone to a water deficit that is likely to become significant in 2010. Alternative sources of supply (water re-use, desalinization and transfer from another basin) are considered either unfeasible or insufficient by water authorities.”, Barcelona Field Studies Centre, April 2008, http://geographyfieldwork.com/barcelonawatersupply.htm
3. “GE [General Electric] has committed to invest $1.5 billion in R&D to develop environmentally friendly products through 2010 and aims to double revenue from eco products and services, with a goal of reaching $20 billion by that year.” An inconvenient lack of metrics, Kate Maddox, BtoB Magazine, April 7, 2008
4. “Oil firms resumed their push into deep-water pools about four years ago, and Transocean’s business gradually picked up from there. It really took off in the past year.

Transocean’s rigs are essentially booked solid through 2010. Its backlog stands at more than $32 billion.” Transocean’s Profits Skyrocket on Record Deep-Water Rig Rates, Marilyn Alva, IBD, April 9, 2008

So as you read through these predictions from what seems like a lifetime ago, what do you think? Two things come to mind, from my perspective.

• Clearly, the world did not end. It barely even slowed down.
• The world and all of us are 5 years older.

Let’s look at a few of these predictions and compare them with today’s world as of December 30, 2013.

1. Oil shale from the Green River formation in Colorado – Response: Didn’t happen but natural gas boom from shale formations is in progress.

13. General Motors predicted to have hydrogen cars – Response: Didn’t happen. We are barely using the technologies and resources which exist today and which were discovered in the 19^th and 20^th centuries to help improve our energy use.

17. China’s generational crisis is a major problem – Response: China relaxed its one child per family policy.

18. Mt. Rainer eruption – Response: Didn’t happen

19. Comet impact – Response: Didn’t happen

20 Great earthquake – Response: In Japan, March 11, 2011, off the east coast, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and resulting tsunami caused the Fukushima Nuclear disaster. Approximately 18,500 people died as a result of the earthquake and tsunami. An unknown number of people worldwide may be impacted by the radiation released by the destruction of the four reactors.

21. Canada troops to leave Afghanistan by 2011 – Response: Canada still has 620 troops in Afghanistan tasked with training.

22. Navigation, power and GPS systems knocked out by solar flares – Response: Didn’t happen on a massive scale, but some normal disruptions.

25. By 2011 more than 9 million Americans subscribe to teleco based subscription services – Response: Cable subscribers are dropping as Americans use more and more wireless services and store massive amounts of data “in the cloud.” Cloud subscription services are growing exponentially. “Global spending on public cloud services is expected to grow 18.6% in 2012 to $110.3B, achieving a CAGR of 17.7% from 2011 through 2016. The total market is expected to grow from $76.9B in 2010 to $210B in 2016.” http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2013/02/19/gartner-predicts-infrastructure-services-will-accelerate-cloud-computing-growth/

26. Desalination is expected to reach $66Bn by 2010 and $126Bn by 2015. - Response: The Global Desalination Market 2013-2023 research report website says the global desalination market is set to reach over $19.5bn in 2013. This is significantly less than predicted in 2011 and shows how embedded the “status quo” is in the water world.

28. More and more players have entered China’s online travel fray … 2.75 million users in 2011. – Response: China is an increasingly important global economic and political power and destination. One of these Chinese online travel service providers, Ctrip, has been reporting solid financial results to date. In Q2 2013, it reported total revenues of CNY1.3 billion ($215 million), an increase of 28 percent from the same period in 2012. It predicted that for the third quarter of 2013, net revenue growth will continue to grow at about 20 percent-25 percent on-year. http://thenextweb.com/asia/2013/10/01/the-online-travel-industry-in-china-is-booming-as-chinas-largest-us-ipo-in-2-years-shows/#!qXlra

33. Why did the ancient Mayan or pre-Maya choose December 21st, 2012 A.D., as the end of their Long Count calendar? – Response: While there were many posts and videos on YouTube.com and other sites on the internet regarding the demise of our world in 2012, nothing happened. We still are not sure why the Mayans choose this date to end their long count calendar, but it didn’t end ours.

36. Perhaps the most telling point is that for the past two years, the French have been going gangbusters for wind power. They will have 2 million KW from wind power by the start of 2007 and their target is 13.5 million KW by 2010. - Response: End 2012: 7,564 MW (+14 %)[from End 1997].

41. Oil provides some 40 percent of the world’s energy needs and as much as 90 percent of its transport fuel. It also has a critical role in agriculture, which provides food for the world’s population of 6 billion people. – Response: From the International Energy Outlook 2013 website, “However, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the outlook. Global natural gas consumption increases by 1.7 percent per year. Increasing supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane support growth in projected worldwide natural gas use. Coal use grows faster than petroleum and other liquid fuel use until after 2030, mostly because of increases in China's consumption of coal and tepid growth in liquids demand attributed to slow growth in the OECD regions and high sustained oil prices.” Clearly, energy use is shifting to natural gas.

43. When we consider the institutional response to global warming, it is very important to recognize that a kind of critical mass has already been reached: over 180 nations have ratified the Kyoto Treaty. – Response: Climate change effects are increasingly becoming evident everywhere and the international community is getting down to brass tacks to establish a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol. The envisaged international treaty is unlikely to hold water, should the principal carbon emitters shun or not join it. … With carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere reaching a milestone of 400 ppm (parts per million) and climate change-related disasters manifesting themselves globally, the planned treaty is set to be finalized by 2015 and take effect in 2020. - http://tshephomokwele.wordpress.com/2013/06/10/climate-change-a-successor-to-the-kyoto-protocol-needs-the-powerful/

45. The baby boom generation – those born between 1946 and 1964 – is making its way through the age groups … - Response: It has been projected, based on the current system, that Social Security will provide 60 to 70 percent of retirement income for boomers in the bottom half of the income distribution in 2019. For most baby boomers, retirement incomes will be well above those of today's retirees (50 to 60 percent higher), and will be more than adequate, but the projections indicate that the proportion of elderly baby boomers who will be poor or near-poor may reach almost 20 percent, with the majority of these being singles, and especially single women (House Ways and Means Committee). http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/Baby_boom_generation.aspx

47. The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012 … - Response: The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 65 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

50. GE [General Electric] has committed to invest $1.5 billion in R&D to develop environmentally friendly products through 2010 … - Response: In 2010, GE set an ambitious goal of growing ecomagination revenues at twice the rate of total company revenue in five years. In 2012, ecomagination met this objective, with revenue totaling $25 billion. http://www.ge.com/globalimpact/ecomagination.html

51. Oil firms resumed their push into deep-water pools … - Response: The growing demand for energy, coupled with increasing investment in offshore exploration activities, will drive the global offshore drilling market to $121.1 billion by 2018 … . The newest economical drilling location is in ultra-Deep-water, which is considered wells drilled in at least 5,000 feet of water. http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/wvs8h7/offshore_drilling, and http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/10/deepwater-drilling-has-a-bright-future.aspx#.UsHqLP13sh4

As you can see, many of the predictions which I published in my eBook World Collapse or New Eden, Your World in 2011 are still major challenges for all of us. While we have made some progress, much of the time between the eBook publication in 2009 and today, December 2013, has been concerned with a global economic and currency crisis. This economic crisis is still hampering global growth and may continue to do so for years.

Between a global political class which is at best “totally self-serving” and the top 2% of our society (economically) which is obsessed with their own “well-being” (i.e. greedy); the global middle class has a battle on its hands just surviving. Without a strong, vibrant middle class, solutions to these and other challenges we face may not be possible.

Given that it is the middle class which typically drives the entrepreneurial engine on a global basis, I am concerned for the next generation. Clearly, many of the challenges mentioned in these predictions still dominate the headlines and our lives, and there are fewer people willing and able to risk, dream and work toward solutions in the private sector.

I believe that many of these predictions which I assembled 5 years ago will continue to plague my granddaughter’s generation. I hope and pray that is not the case but if our progress in the last few years is any indication, then that may well be the case.

Despite the challenges and concerns, there is much good in this world and in our lives. Just remember to take time to enjoy a sunrise or sunset, read a good book or just talk with a friend or family member. Share yourself with others and allow them to do the same with you.

I will end by wishing my family, especially my new granddaughter, and my readers the very best in the new year of 2014.

H. Court Young
http://www.hcourtyoung.com

The Water Abundance Myth – Have things changed?

The average person has no idea about the issues surrounding water according to an October 2009 WaterWorld article entitled The Illusion of Abundance, by Dave Angelo. It is now three years, five months later and I wondered if anything has changed with regard to the average person’s knowledge of our most precious resource, water. After all, more people than ever are connected to the internet. The global use of smartphones, tablets and computers makes information readily available.

Quotes from that 2009 article provide a baseline for comparison:

“In spite of $1 trillion having been spent on water compliance issues over the last 30 years:

· 45-50 million Americans are exposed to unsafe water

· One-half of the major US watersheds have serious water quality issues

· One-half of the communities do not comply with CWA or CSO laws

· 218 million Americans live within 10 miles of polluted waterways

Also … at least 2.6 billion people, some 41 percent of the global population, do not have access to any sort of basic sanitation facilities.”

Fast forward to May 2012. In a December 2012 article entitled, Public or Private, the Question is how to pay for it, Water/Wastewater Processing, by Kathy Shandling. Kathy notes

“According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), there is close to a $1.0 trillion infrastructure investment need in this country’s water and wastewater systems over the next 20 years. More importantly, it is anticipated that there will be a 20-year infrastructure investment gap of $102 billion for drinking water systems and $122 billion for wastewater systems. The operations and maintenance gap is even larger - $161 billion for drinking water systems and $148 billion for wastewater systems.”

So much for needing to spend less money in the future than we have spent in the past. Clearly, the $1.0 trillion spent over the last 30 years (prior to 2009) wasn’t enough, if we need to spend $1.0 trillion over the next 20 years (starting in 2013), especially if we will have a significant short fall.

It is interesting to note that 2012 marked the 40^th anniversary of the Clean Water Act (CWA). Passed in 1972, this act was designed to (from Productivity Perspectives, Water/Wastewater processing, Dec 2012, by Kevin Parker):

1. Eliminate releases of high amounts of toxic substances into water

2. Eliminate water pollution

3. Ensure surface waters meet established standards

Has this legislation had any impact on our water/wastewater supply systems and the public perception of these systems? The answer is yes and no.

According to Kevin Parker:

“A story in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, highlights an announcement by Minnesota state officials that more than a decade to work to clean up wastewater including millions of dollars spent on construction, and new technology, has made the ‘lower reach of the Minnesota River a much healthier place for aquatic life’.”

Additionally, Parker notes:

“Pollution caused by wastewater effluents has been reduced to such an extent that today non-point source pollutants such as sediments, nutrients, pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers, animal wastes and other substances entering the water supply as components of run-off and groundwater account for more than 50% of pollution in U.S. waters.”

Clearly, water/wastewater suppliers have made some progress due to legislation such as the Clean Water Act and its corollary, the Safe Drinking Water Act. Eliminating waste water effluents by 50% is definitely progress.

Has legislation had an impact? A November 2012 article about Hurricane Sandy comes to mind. Michael Peltz, editor, Institutional Investor Magazine wrote Long Day’s Journey in the Dark. He notes:

“I would have made a terrible pioneer. When Hurricane Sandy slammed into the New York tristate region on October 29, I was … working in my home on the North shore of Long Island …. My wife, daughter and I lost power that evening about 6:30 pm. At first it was fun. We cooked dinner by candlelight, played card games and put on layers of clothes to stay warm before climbing into bed. But ten days later, as I sit huddled in my darkened house writing this, the novelty is gone.”

He sums up by saying:

“Politicians need to reach a compromise to avoid plunging the U. S. over the fiscal cliff because a much bigger question is lurking. The U.S. aging power grid and transportation system. In its most recent report card, the American society of Civil Engineers gave the U. S. infrastructure an overall grade of D, or poor, and estimated it would cost $2.2 trillion over five years to raise that grade. After 10 days and counting of sleeping in a cold dark house, I am hoping that it doesn’t take another natural disaster for Washington to find the political will to tackle the U.S. infrastructure troubles.”

In my opinion, our government and the political process is totally out of touch with the needs of our country and its citizens. It can’t even follow through with existing legislation. Because of this, as a country, we are becoming much less competitive globally as our critical infrastructure declines. So much for lofty speeches and the grand sideshow that hallmarks our political system and media.

How has the decline in our critical infrastructure systems impacted the perceptions of the average person? Numerous articles, papers and books have been written about the decline in our infrastructure, including the water/wastewater components. Most Americans have access to this information.

Again according to an article entitled Gauging Industry’s role in water reuse, December 2012, Water/Waste processing, the public’s education seems lagging.

“Industrial conglomerate GE has released the results of the survey of 3000 consumers in the United States, China and Singapore. It indicates that Americans believe large water users are most responsible for contributing to water scarcity. Additionally, they strongly support reusing water to help the U.S. drive economic competitiveness and protect the environment. Yet, Americans understanding of water lifestyles and solutions falls behind those of survey participants in other water challenged countries.”

The survey notes that Americans feel water is the single most important service they receive, beating electricity and heat. Yet 31% of Americans don’t know where their water come from, compared to only 14% of those in China and 15% of those in Singapore. Less than half know how their water is cleaned for community use (47%) and how water is disposed of after it’s been used (49%).

According to the survey:

“When asked about a series of terms relating to water, Americans have the least familiarity with the terms of recycled water (60%) and water reuse (51%). Conversely more than 8 of 10 respondents in China were familiar with these terms and feel more positive about them.”

“Despite a lack of understanding of water, Americans are clearly concerned about water scarcity and the availability and quality of water for the future. The survey shows Americans will support using recycled water for many nondrinking uses which currently use a large volumes of freshwater - and believe we should do so to maintain economic growth. In fact, many are willing to pay a bit more now to ensure clean water down the line.”

In a December 2012 article entitled Election Behind Us, We Keep Marching Forward, James Laughlin, editor, WaterWorld, noted:

“While water was never an issue in the presidential [Obama-Romney] campaign, I’m happy to say it was an issue on the Oklahoma ballot. State voters approved a measure that allows the Oklahoma Water Resources Board issue up to 300 million in bonds help on drinking water and wastewater needs across state.”

Laughlin continues:

“With Obama secure for another term, I expect EPA will move ahead with new drinking water regulations and continue its push for compliance of clean water act rules. It will be business as usual, and the next four years will probably look very much like the last four, in terms of Washington.”

In another December 2012 WaterWorld article entitled Obama reelection could accelerate drinking water regulation by Patrick Crow it is noted:

“Water infrastructure investments are mandatory if the nation is to avoid extreme water events like hurricane Sandy, the water environmental Federation (WEF) said after the November election. WEF Executive Director Jeff Eiger said replacing the nation’s aging water infrastructure is one of the key problems the Obama administration faces over the next four years.

Our central water infrastructure is failing and is woefully inadequate to address the new normal weather patterns. Restoring existing drinking water systems and expanding them to serve a growing population will cost at least $1 trillion over the next 25 years.

Eiger said, ‘with millions of Americans out of work the timing could not be better to reinvest in our water infrastructure, create jobs, boost the nation’s economy, and get more prepared for the next wet weather emergency’.”

“For water, I think 2013 will be another year of hardship. For sewage, another year standing pat. Beyond 2013, we will see gradual improvement from the current situation.” According to another December 2012 WaterWorld article entitled Pace of Construction Expected to Remain Flat in 2013.

The Mississippi state Department of Health published three indicators which show that its drinking water supply system is gradually improving. These indicate rank 1,200 public water systems every year based on technical, managerial and financial capabilities.

The December 2012 issue of Water Technology notes:

“Casper College in Casper Wyoming will be able continue providing training for safe drinking water production with a $100,000 grant from the Environment Protection Agency (EPA). The grant will allow the college to continue the training program for the next three years. The grant will be used to offer training in the proper operations and maintenance of public water systems with classics focusing on small public water supplies (PES), transient nontransparent water systems, groundwater systems and surface water system operations.”

A January 2013 Water Technology Around the Industry article notes:

“The State of Illinois will benefit from a new $1 billion initiative the will help secure safe drinking water. Currently, residents are receiving water through water mains that are nearly 100 years old and are in dire need of being replaced.”

While water providers are struggling to maintain a very aging and out of date water/wastewater supply system, the population and the amount of water used continues to increase. This trend is going to continue because of rising standards of living around the globe.

Yet, even in our globally connected, technology driven world, hundreds, if not thousands, of people die every day around the world from the lack of clean water. Can you name any other disease or illness that affects that many lives every single day? If an equivalent number of people died because of plane crashes, or traffic accidents, the awareness of water issues would be much higher and probably solutions would happen much quicker.

Science tells us that there’s the same amount of water on earth as there was 1 million years ago. Clearly, from a water information standpoint, the education of the average citizen in the United States is not getting much better. If it were, then things would have changed from October 2009, when my article The Illusion of Abundance was written. We still believe that water, which is our most precious resource, is limitless. Without an educated and involved public, I don’t hold much hope that this perception will change until it is too late.

H. Court Young